Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.

Budzbuddha

Well-Known Member
‘Jeopardy’ & ‘Wheel Of Fortune’ To Film Without Audience Over Coronavirus Concerns ...

Im sure there’s “ canned laughter / audience noises “ on a loop somewhere.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Open Windows.“ “ Don't Share Food.”.... Here's the Government's Coronavirus Advice..... :wall:

Every year since taking office, Trump has asked for deep cuts into research on emerging diseases – including the CDC’s small center on emerging and “zoonotic” infectious diseases that jump the species barrier from animals to humans. The new coronavirus is just the latest example of these threats.

The CDC’s program focuses on infectious diseases ranging from foodborne illnesses to anthrax and Ebola. It manages laboratory, epidemiologic, analytic and prevention programs, and collaborates with state and local health departments, other federal government agencies, industry and foreign ministries of health.

In 2018, Trump tried to cut $65 million from this budget – a 10% reduction. In 2019, he sought a 19% reduction. For 2020, he proposed to cut federal spending on emerging infectious and zoonotic diseases by 20%. This would mean spending $100 million less in 2020 to study how such diseases infect humans than the US did just two years ago.

Many don’t get or have “ sick pay “ ...... but PENCE pushes prayer.

Get rid of the “ TRUMP VIRUS “ .... in November.
That “ scorched earth “ scenario some of you mentioned is here.
Those numbers make great election posters and memes
 

Budzbuddha

Well-Known Member
I was concerned over my fellow growers not getting enough TP due to shortages. So I invented ( patent pending ) ....

THE SHIT MITT !

Wipe away your fears with the SHIT MITT .... durable , sphincter friendly , one size fits all. Keep yourself clean and protected with the scientifically designed “ turd ridges design “ ... microban materials and weave. Grandma and the elderly can wipe with confidence.
Kids can play turd toss while under isolation .... high five instead of handshakes . The future is here. Made in the U.S.A.


BB573CED-9177-46C2-8829-4E833B841DEC.jpeg
 

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
Ontario will keep all public schools closed for two weeks after March break ....... wow. We had a customer threaten too spread word that we had an infected employee because he was stuffed up and she heard him blow his nose in a tissue at truck . It’s gonna get fucked up ..... we have 60ish people with positive results so far :(.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
There are some good studies out on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases. This is very useful info and in particular, I found the Nishiura et al study to be pretty solid. Basically, they tested every single Japanese evacuee from Wuhan and came up with a number of confirmed virus positive individuals and then figured out who had symptoms. So these are the people who would likely not have been tested had they not been actual evacuees. Furthermore, some of the symptomatic individuals only experienced mild symptoms and would likely also have been underdiagnosed.
Using a binomial distribution, the asymptomatic ratio is thus estimated at 30.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7%, 53.8%) among evacuees. As of 6 March 2020, a total of thirty days have elapsed since their departure from Wuhan, and the length of observation is sufficiently longer than the COVID-19 incubation period (Li et al., 2020; Linton et al., 2020). Thus, there is very little probability that the virus-positive asymptomatic individuals will develop symptoms.

Despite a small sample size, our estimation indicates that perhaps less than a half of COVID-19-infected individuals are underdiagnosed.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
There are some good studies out on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases. This is very useful info and in particular, I found the Nishiura et al study to be pretty solid. Basically, they tested every single Japanese evacuee from Wuhan and came up with a number of confirmed virus positive individuals and then figured out who had symptoms. So these are the people who would likely not have been tested had they not been actual evacuees. Furthermore, some of the symptomatic individuals only experienced mild symptoms and would likely also have been underdiagnosed.

it's much worse than we've been told...
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.
It would be safe to say that the mortality rate goes up when the hospitalization rate exceeds the capacity of the system and until more is known an abundance in caution and social distancing is required, indeed social distancing appears to mitigate things. Mortality rates will vary widely by country and will depend on response and other factors.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precaution, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.
I posted a video by a British Doctor earlier tonight (does easy to understand public health updates) who had an email from a medical friend in the Philippines, said it's gonna be grim there, he mentions the philippines in the second of the two I posted together.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Welp, I guess my argument is going to be buried by panicky misinformation posts quickly...
We are at the point where we know what to do to "flatten the curve" in most countries at long last, social distancing and it will eventually have an impact on the mortality rate. Everybody's focus is on public health and mitigation, containment is long past in most places. This is being studied empirically on the fly, the art of medicine, ya do what works in a jamb. Double blind studies are being done too and it's gonna take more testing and time to crunch the numbers and format the statistics properly. There's some facts to discuss a lot of conjecture at this point.

Why don't you state your argument succinctly in a sentence or two or even three?
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.
 
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