Iraq's Cabinet yesterday overwhelmingly accepted a plan to end the U.S. military presence in Iraq by the end of 2011 and sent it on to Parliament for approval, where it faces a fight from lawmakers who consider it a sellout to the Americans.
The Status of Forces Agreement was expected to be presented to the 275-seat national legislature today for the start of what likely will be contentious debate. Lawmakers are under pressure to vote on it by Nov. 25, when they plan to leave to attend the Hajj in Saudi Arabia. The agreement will replace the U.N. mandate expiring Dec. 31 that gives U.S. forces the legal basis for being in Iraq.
While the Cabinet approval marked a victory of sorts for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who wrung several concessions from the United States during months of negotiations, it also puts him on a collision course with some Shiite and Sunni Muslim lawmakers who strongly oppose the deal. Among them are followers of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has threatened to call his Mahdi Army militia back to war against the United States to derail the pact, and Sunni parliamentarians who said the pact should be voted on in a public referendum.
The pact calls for American forces to pull out of Iraqi cities by the end of June and fully withdraw from Iraq by Dec. 31, 2011.
After lengthy negotiations, the U.S. also agreed to promise not to raid or attack neighboring countries from Iraq, not to search Iraqi homes or make arrests without Iraqi approval, and to drop demands for total immunity for U.S. forces accused of wrongdoing in Iraq.
Despite the compromises, al-Sadr rejects the pact because he wants U.S. forces to leave Iraq when the U.N. mandate ends and opposes any agreement letting them stay longer. Leaders of Iraq's minority Sunni population say the plan is too important not to be voted on by the public.
The country's most influential Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, indicated during the weekend that he would not oppose the latest draft. Sistani's word carries immense weight with Iraq's Shiite majority and should help fellow Shiite al-Maliki navigate the choppy waters that might result from al-Sadr's opposition and from neighboring Iran, said Vali Nasr, an expert on Middle East politics at Tufts University.
"I think al-Maliki had to get the deal that would satisfy Sistani," said Nasr. "From the outset he is the one who mattered and is the only one who can stand up to Iran and al-Sadr's opposition."
Iran, like al-Sadr, had said U.S. forces should leave Iraq when the U.N. mandate expires.
"This will be an adventure," said Omar Abdul Sattar, a Sunni legislator, summing up his prediction for the Parliament debate. In addition to political resistance, Sattar said time constraints on lawmakers will make reaching consensus difficult.
The Cabinet approval came after a two-hour meeting presided over by al-Maliki, who urged passage after concluding he had won all he could from Washington.
"They decided it's the best we could get," said Khudair Khuzai, the Shiite education minister, of the 27 Cabinet ministers who raised their hands in favor of the plan.
Khuzai said he would prefer to see a quick exit of foreign troops from Iraqi soil but was satisfied with wording that mandates the departure of American forces from Iraqi cities by the end of June 2009, and a full withdrawal from the country by Dec. 31, 2011.