War

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I guess it's a matter of opinion, but an old-fashioned nuclear war of mutual annihilation seems unlikely. Don't get me wrong anybody using a nuke anywhere is a bad idea and it might have unfortunate consequences for those who use them. Best to let the dictators die off of natural causes and hope for better the next time, if you can.
I would ask you for a reference to expert opinion on the bolded.
Even if you found someone still holding to the old “limited nuclear war is doable” malarkey, all probability evaporates in the face of event.

There is no way to safely test the premise.

Should a nuke be used anywhere in the hot regions, many brass-heavy adrenal glands are gonna have a seizure. Cognitive degradation in the folks who can give the Order will result. I refer you back to Murphy thermodynamics.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
We have nothing to hide.

The Central Election Commission refused to invite observers from unfriendly countries to the elections
Foreign observers from unfriendly countries will not be invited to the upcoming presidential elections in March 2024 by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This was stated by Pavel Andreev, a member of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation responsible for international cooperation.

“The CEC sends invitations only to its counterparties - election authorities in other countries and international specialized industry organizations. We did not invite the electoral bodies of unfriendly countries,” Andreev told reporters from Izvestia . Invitations have been sent to other countries.

According to Pavel Andreev, members of the World Association of Electoral Bodies (WAEO) received the invitation. A number of countries are interested in gaining experience working in Russia and are already preparing their observers for the presidential elections in March 2024. The State Duma of the Russian Federation and the Federation Council also want to refuse to invite foreign observers from unfriendly countries.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I would ask you for a reference to expert opinion on the bolded.
Even if you found someone still holding to the old “limited nuclear war is doable” malarkey, all probability evaporates in the face of event.

There is no way to safely test the premise.

Should a nuke be used anywhere in the hot regions, many brass-heavy adrenal glands are gonna have a seizure. Cognitive degradation in the folks who can give the Order will result. I refer you back to Murphy thermodynamics.
I agree with what you say and as for the likelihood of a limited nuclear war, it is a matter of opinion, and the experts appear to be no better informed about that as anybody else including you and me. You can rest assured that Joe would do everything in his power to avoid or discourage such actions including a promise to strike anybody who used one! That is why he should be POTUS!
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I agree with what you say and as for the likelihood of a limited nuclear war, it is a matter of opinion, and the experts appear to be no better informed about that as anybody else including you and me. You can rest assured that Joe would do everything in his power to avoid or discourage such actions including a promise to strike anybody who used one! That is why he should be POTUS!
That’s the problem. If US is called on that, the nuclear offender is likely to double down.

(sound of dominoes falling)
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
That’s the problem. If US is called on that, the nuclear offender is likely to double down.

(sound of dominoes falling)
It is what it is, and some people only pay attention when it's their pink little ass on the line. Those who start wars don't want to end up the victim of one, which is why nukes have not been used, it kills the powerful, those who started it.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Pay wall, but there is enough to get the gist. America is well equipped for naval warfare, pax americana and the allies are being challenged, not on the high seas, but in the smaller ones and littoral areas, commerce choke points. If anybody started cutting cables they will be sunk on site. Navies are supposed to protect commerce, undersea cables too, but whose commerce are they protecting in the red sea, mostly China's trade with Europe would be my guess and oil trade to China. If not for European trade and industry we should have little interest, Egypt should be interested though, they get a lot of revenue from the Suez canal, support them and others with a vital interest in keeping it open.

With EVs, renewable energy and especially onshoring manufacturing and other industries, I suspect this area of the world will have diminishing vital interest to America and Europe, though their Asian trade will continue through the area. In his own way Joe is diminishing the importance of global trade and there will be less need for overseas military bases or presence, if fewer interests are at stake. At one point America or Americans owned a lot of the world and are now down to 25%, so not so much is required to protect global interests and the investments of the 1%. Like the British, the navy was not required when the empire was no more.

 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
I’d rather not be in a shooting war with Iran. Imagine what would happen to material aid to Ukraine if suddenly we needed it ourselves.

I wouldn’t put it past Vladolf to suggest just that to Khamenei and sweeten the deal with some nuclear guarantees.
That's a given, Iran and N Korea a shrewed negotiators,and surely bargained for tech help in their respective nuke programs,Putin's animosity toward the West is a epic proportions now. I'm mentally preparing myself for news about a seismic "event" coming from the mountains in Iran.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
To the bolded: this reminds me of the military fools in the Reagan era who spoke in terms of “limited nuclear war” and “surgical strikes”.

I regard the idea that a nuclear release won’t cascade to be at the very least unproven.

I agree with the clock being advanced ten seconds. Between Gaza and Houthis (and aid to the Russian war) Iran is drawing two nuclear powers (Israel is estimated to have at least 80 nuclear weapons of its own) closer to the sort of “existential threat” conditions that both sides state would justify their use.

Things aren’t going smoothly in China right now. Imagine if we decide to strike Iran, or degrade their proxies enough that they stage a nasty incident — and we get busy in the region.
Now imagine if the leaders of China, needing a win, decide that that is the moment to do something direct regarding Taiwan. Murphy’s quantum* and thermodynamic# laws both kick in.
That would bring us twenty seconds to midnight. (Nightmare thought: imagine if that man were still in place and decided to Sharpie a hurricane over Tehran.)

*Everything goes wrong all at once.

#Things get worse under pressure.
And Taiwan just re-elected the party(DPP) that China loathes,tick, tick,tick
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
It is what it is, and some people only pay attention when it's their pink little ass on the line. Those who start wars don't want to end up the victim of one, which is why nukes have not been used, it kills the powerful, those who started it.
All I know for sure is that a nuke used in anger shatters about 80 yrs. of precedent and even if contained to that one time use will feed paranoia,which will feed stock market losses,economic losses,and ratchet up tension in geo-politics to knee rattling levels. From there who knows??????
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Russian Communal Crisis: People Freeze at their Own Homes
At the beginning of January 2024, heating was lost in several cities and regions of the Russian Federation. In Podolsk near Moscow, more than 20 thousand people were left without heat. Citizens recorded a video message to Putin and complained about the communal crisis, but the dictator isn’t interested in solving such issues, especially because his friends are the ones responsible for it. Stay with us to find out why the country that threatened Europe and the entire world, now can't even provide heat to the capital?
 

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member

Russian Communal Crisis: People Freeze at their Own Homes
At the beginning of January 2024, heating was lost in several cities and regions of the Russian Federation. In Podolsk near Moscow, more than 20 thousand people were left without heat. Citizens recorded a video message to Putin and complained about the communal crisis, but the dictator isn’t interested in solving such issues, especially because his friends are the ones responsible for it. Stay with us to find out why the country that threatened Europe and the entire world, now can't even provide heat to the capital?
Even Mother Nature hates Pootin and is screwing up their infrastructure so Ukrainia doesn't have to get blamed for it tho Pootin probably will blame them and send more missiles to damage theirs in phony retaliation.

Still amazes me that Pootin hasn't fallen out of a window yet.

:peace:
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Even Mother Nature hates Pootin and is screwing up their infrastructure so Ukrainia doesn't have to get blamed for it tho Pootin probably will blame them and send more missiles to damage theirs in phony retaliation.

Still amazes me that Pootin hasn't fallen out of a window yet.

:peace:
There will be a brief lull in missile attacks as air force personnel use the fuel for heating.
 
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