obama at 91.4% to win

Samwell Seed Well

Samwell Seed Well

Well-Known Member
RyanTheRhino said:
and how did they get the 90% Chance of winning Exit poll + other polls derp
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how is it you dont know how this works

electoral college- if you win enough key swing states(which obama has been predicted to win continuously for months) then even if you dont have the popular vote(which i think Obama will jsut it will be very close) then you still win . . . . .are you even an american


Obama, using a type of math called statistics has been foretasted/predicted with mathematical models(no not tyra) to take all the states needed to win the electorate, is predicted to win . . .

Romney has not been proven to be able to do it . .not that he wont just that there is no supporting polls or exit polls to support a Romney electoral win . . .this obviously can be wrong

id ask the right to show some Romney polls or stats on how he is going to win the electoral vote but they cant without evoking the spirit or fuax opinion piece news
 
Doer

Doer

Well-Known Member
Samwell Seed Well said:
you completely miss his point . . . .and it completely makes his point



and No if his prediction doesn't come true his generalization about American and arrogance and ego will remain

weather this countries business or citizens or politicians are bi partisan it doesn't change how we fuck up the rest of the world with our imperialist fascist BS
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This world would be run by Germans, or Japanese, or Russians, or Chinese if it was not for the US saving the world from them. Get some History. Are you saying you like that better? We would be dictated to.

The only thing that had changed is the old hippies and black progressives and the Chicago machine have fostered this Americans hating America business. If Obama loses, it will be the hate. We don't hate America or think it is a fuck up. We know it is a stumbling challenge. It is an elected Republic of leadership.

You haters act like America had a King and suddenly we are in revolt. No, the same system has saved our ass time and again despite your hate.

We the People. We fucked up the world, if that's what you see. But, we didn't. We have persevered the peace. Fascism is when the means of production are controlled thru Unions. Nurses and other heathcare Unions, for the future.

The means of production in the US is heathcare. We are better than anywhere else. Your National Socialism fascist President has bailed out the Ponzi Unions.

He has jacked healthcare and education to favor the Unions.

Get some history, so you know what Fascism actually is.
 
Samwell Seed Well

Samwell Seed Well

Well-Known Member
im a human before im an Amreican

maybe thats your problem take the blinders off

[video=youtube_share;wo-wkv8gW6k]http://youtu.be/wo-wkv8gW6k[/video]
 
k0ijn

k0ijn

Scientia Cannabis
RyanTheRhino said:
and how did they get the 90% Chance of winning Exit poll + other polls derp
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Look I'll explain what happened to you, because it seems like you don't get it.

I posted this:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

It's Nate Silvers blog.
He has calculated the CHANCE of Obama winning the election by looking at polls, early voting and a lot of other variables.
If you want all the details read the bloody site.

I said that there is 90% chance of Obama winning (if we go by Nate Silvers calculations).

Then along came nxsl or whatever he's called and said that I was an idiot for saying Obama would win 90% of the electoral vote.

I never said Obama would win 90% of the electoral vote, which is the first case where he (nxsl) lied.

I then explained that Nate Silver has calculated the CHANCE of Obama winning to be 90% and that he (nxsl) was a liar for saying that I was telling people Obama would win 90% of the electoral vote.

Nxsl then proceeded to lie again, he twisted the words and steered the conversation onto another subject so people wouldn't look at this lie.

But it's still there, you can look it up.

I never said Obama would win 90% of the electoral votes, and no matter how many times nxsl or anyone says that I did, it's simply lies.
You can see all the posts here, you can see for yourself.


The fact remains that nxsl misunderstood (or simply just chose to lie because he doesn't give a shit) what I wrote.
What I did say was that THERE'S A 90% CHANCE OF OBAMA WINNING (and there still is, it's @ 90.9% atm).
 
beardo

beardo

Well-Known Member
Ron Paul is winning- They haven't counted all the write ins yet.
Dr Paul shall lead US
 
Doer

Doer

Well-Known Member
Samwell Seed Well said:
im a human before im an Amreican

maybe thats your problem take the blinders off
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Content free reply. The point is you would not have been born. Or certainly not born into the same circumstance.

But, you love the throw away labeling of a monday morning quarterback. This world is and America is what it is. Your hate spew is meaningless.

It is easy to hate. But, most of us Love America.
 
Doer

Doer

Well-Known Member
(if we go by Nate Silvers calculations)

Why would we go by rabid partisan calculations? From the premier partisan rag? That all depends on his warped view of the warped polls, correct?

If he was actually independent he would never work for the Times. They would not hire him.

There are plenty of other famous and infamous people and none of their partisan opinions count at all.
 
RyanTheRhino

RyanTheRhino

Well-Known Member
Samwell Seed Well said:
how is it you dont know how this works

electoral college- if you win enough key swing states(which obama has been predicted to win continuously for months) then even if you dont have the popular vote(which i think Obama will jsut it will be very close) then you still win . . . . .are you even an american


Obama, using a type of math called statistics has been foretasted/predicted with mathematical models(no not tyra) to take all the states needed to win the electorate, is predicted to win . . .

Romney has not been proven to be able to do it . .not that he wont just that there is no supporting polls or exit polls to support a Romney electoral win . . .this obviously can be wrong

id ask the right to show some Romney polls or stats on how he is going to win the electoral vote but they cant without evoking the spirit or fuax opinion piece news
Click to expand...
The exit poll from each state helps determine which way their EC will vote. I was not talking about the sum of every poll. Exit Polls are not perfect and they can still change throughout the day.

Plus statistics can't be used to determine human nature. On top of personal bias that skews results unknowingly. If you are a REP you will subliminally go after who you think voted republican to get your data, and vice versa. Its just probability , a measure of how wrong you are. The higher your % the less error you assume is in your prediction.

I don't see why you assumed I was talking about the sum of all exit polls , your statistics must be off :hump:
 
Dr Kynes

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
k0ijn said:
Wonderful change of subject there. Instead of addressing the points I made.
It just goes to prove what I've been saying all along.




Of course it is. Immediate history is the same as current events, either way you spin it it's the same thing. It doesn't matter what you call it.

I agree that statistics are not always correct.
But we're talking about an educated economist who's been very near perfectly correct in past elections.
This guy knows his stuff and to discredit his views and calculations simply because you don't think statistics are credible is ignorant.

I know it's not assigned electoral votes.
I never said it was. Don't try to twist my words.

What I said was that the chance of winning is calculated by the predicted states, to which side they fall, thus by electoral votes.
I never said that the votes are in and it's certain. I said it from the beginning it is a CHANCE calculation.
Just like bookmakers use to determine odds. It's simply odds.
No I didn't quote them as if they are facts.
I never claimed that Obama will receive 90% of the electoral votes.

I claimed that Obama has a 91.6% chance of WINNING based on projected electoral votes (whether states go dem or rep).

No matter how much you try to twist my words it won't work.
I never once said that Obama will receive 90% of the electoral votes.
And the fact that you have to resort to lying just proves how ignorant you are.
It's ridiculous and it just proves my point again.

You guys will do anything to twist words and views.
You will say anything to try to discredit what I've said even though I never said anything about Obama receiving 90% of the electoral votes.
Who exactly are you trying to fool here?

Look through my comments. Quote me where I said Obama would receive 90% of the electoral votes.
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here ya go.

k0ijn said:
What the percentages value is the chance of winning based on electoral votes.
And at this stage he is behind Obamas 91.6% (Rmoney has 8.4% for the mathematically inept of you).
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those words in that order mean obama has 91.6% of the electoral college and romney has 8.4%.

ohhh my.
 
Samwell Seed Well

Samwell Seed Well

Well-Known Member
Dr Kynes said:
here ya go.



those words in that order mean obama has 91.6% of the electoral college and romney has 8.4%.

ohhh my.
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you realize that the word chance is a mathematical term(in this case). . and is very specific in this case . . .. in no way would you get this right with your attitude if it was a math equation using words

chance of winning based on electorate votes is not percentage of electorate, and they can in now way be implied as the same as the wording is very specific math(this math) is not subjective
 
Dr Kynes

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
Samwell Seed Well said:
you realize that the word chance is a mathematical term(in this case). . and is very specific in this case . . .. in no way would you get this right with your attitude if it was a math equation using words

chance of winning based on electorate votes is not percentage of electorate, and they can in now way be implied as the same as the wording is very specific math(this math) is not subjective
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had he stated "obama's odds of winning are currently 91.6% while romney's odds of winning are 8.4%" then you would be right.

too bad he wrote that obama's share of the electoral vote is 91.6%. bad english is as useless as bad math. it's still bad communication.
 
Samwell Seed Well

Samwell Seed Well

Well-Known Member
chance and odds are very similar when beign used to describe stats and probability. please explain how they dont mean the same thing

"
Probability more ...
Probability is the chance that something will happen - how likely it is that some event will happen.
"

this is how i remember it

but i am no doctor

"percentages value is the chance of winning" and ya in order to understand and comprehend information understanding context is paramount


Northcal
 
Dr Kynes

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
Samwell Seed Well said:
chance and odds are very similar. please explain how they dont mean the same thing

"
Probability more ...
Probability is the chance that something will happen - how likely it is that some event will happen.
"

this is how i remmeber it

but i am no doctor
Click to expand...

his statement was either a fundamental misunderstanding of the conclusions of that slimy bookie, or a deliberate deception.
his NUMEROUS assertions about his massive intellect largely preclude the possibility that he didnt understand the information he cited.

"What the percentages value is the chance of winning based on electoral votes.
And at this stage he is behind Obamas 91.6% (Rmoney has 8.4% for the mathematically inept of you)."

this statement stands alone, separate from the waffle and the gish gallop. it clearly asserts the following:

the percentages in the slimy bookie's website are based on the electoral vote.
obama leads romney by 91.6%, and romney HAS (note the possessive present tense) 8.4% (which clearly refers to the subject of the last sentence, which was "Electoral Votes")

this is not the language of the oddsmaker's projections, this is the language of the sportscaster calling a game thats mostly over. any game where one team leads the other by 91-8 is pretty much OVER. unless you got harry potter on the bench, you cant come back from a deficit like that.
 
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