Ask this question to 10 growers and you are bound to get at least 6 different answers!
In this case the only opinion that makes any difference is your's! When the yield drops below "acceptable" - replace the bulb!
You have to make that choice! You draw the line, what is "acceptable" to you? Some would say "When the yield is down by 1/4 to 1/3", some would say "When the yield is down by 1/2".
I say, as long as the bulb produces a reasonable yield, keep it - when it's no longer "acceptable", replace it. That's up to you!