I think the USA will have this completed by the year 2017 or even sooner. Stop thinking NASA and think more private companies. Try goggle... Space X, Alliant, Boeing, Orbital Sciences, Lockheed Martin. All these companies are involved with the development of launch vehicles, orbitals, and crew capsules. Hell here I am thinking you are a stocks man... are you telling me you have ZERO stocks in any of these companies? You sure seem out of the loop on this one.
I'm willing to bet the Russian will not stop giving us a ride tomorrow ..That my friend is written in stone. Do your homework and you will know why.