InB4 the Eco-Loons

abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
MuyLocoNC said:
scientist going on record with an admission? Public record. Not debatable.
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Was it a peer reviewed admission?

See here is what is wrong with you, case in point. You think it matters what a person says. You think it matters to those of us who respect the scientific method what a person said. That's why you think we all just follow the words of a figurehead. So a scientist made a comment. All along we have been insisting upon unbiased, peer reviewed research and now you come with the words of one person as if it is a silver bullet. At the very least, I hope you learned the value of citation. You're welcome for the lesson.
 
MuyLocoNC

MuyLocoNC

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Was it a peer reviewed admission?

See here is what is wrong with you, case in point. You think it matters what a person says. You think it matters to those of us who respect the scientific method what a person said. That's why you think we all just follow the words of a figurehead. So a scientist made a comment. All along we have been insisting upon unbiased, peer reviewed research and now you come with the words of one person as if it is a silver bullet. At the very least, I hope you learned the value of citation. You're welcome for the lesson.
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Not a scientist, the DIRECTOR of the agency in charge of the study. The same guy that made the claim of 2014 being the hottest year. You sure took him at his word (press release) when it suited your purpose.

All you had was his claim and you ran with it. Now you act magnanimous. The lesson was your a hypocrite, a zealot and an alarmist.

But, everyone with any common sense already knew that.
 
UncleBuck

UncleBuck

Well-Known Member
it's hilarious to see muyloco change his position from "AGW is a conspiracy and a hoax!!!" to "well, 2014 might not have been the hottest year on record".

lame.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Press release slide: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

1) Hiatus never mentioned.
2) No mention of exclusion of data regarding temperatures prior to 135 years ago.
3) NOAA says 48% chance and NASA says 38% chance
4) 2014 very clearly confirmed hottest year on record.

You failed miserably again. I'll admit it took me a minute to figure out this 48% stuff. So I can see why you were easily fooled.
Look at the graphic in the link. I'll try to duplicate it.

This is according to NOAA data:

Probability of
warmest year
2014 ~48%
2010 ~18%
2005 ~13%
2013 ~6%
1998 ~5%

Notice that only 5 years are contenders for the title "hottest year on record". Of those, 2014 had the highest chance. Not of the last 135 or any other sample.

and here is the NASA data from the press release slide:

Probability of
warmest year
2014 ~38%
2010 ~23%
2005 ~17%
1998 ~4%

Among the four top contenders, 2014 is by far the best choice for the title "hottest year on record".

Also, the reason that they don't all add up to 100% is that not every contender made the graph. Only the top 4 or 5 were even considered.

In case I have not pointed it out yet, You fail miserably. 2014 was definitely the hottest on record.
 
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MuyLocoNC

MuyLocoNC

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Press release slide: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

1) Hiatus never mentioned.
2) No mention of exclusion of data regarding temperatures prior to 135 years ago.
3) NOAA says 48% chance and NASA says 38% chance
4) 2014 very clearly confirmed hottest year on record.

You failed miserably again. I'll admit it took me a minute to figure out this 48% stuff. So I can see why you were easily fooled.
Look at the graphic in the link. I'll try to duplicate it.

This is according to NOAA data:

Probability of
warmest year
2014 ~48%
2010 ~18%
2005 ~13%
2013 ~6%
1998 ~5%

Notice that only 5 years are contenders for the title "hottest year on record". Of those, 2014 had the highest chance. Not of the last 135 or any other sample.

and here is the NASA data from the press release slide:

Probability of
warmest year
2014 ~38%
2010 ~23%
2005 ~17%
1998 ~4%

Among the four top contenders, 2014 is by far the best choice for the title "hottest year on record".

Also, the reason that they don't all add up to 100% is that not every contender made the graph. Only the top 4 or 5 were even considered.

In case I have not pointed it out yet, You fail miserably. 2014 was definitely the hottest on record.
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Definitely, if you believe that equates to a 38% likelihood.

Of course, the real reason for the uncertainty is it all falls well within the margin of error for all the years. Which means any minuscule inaccuracy turns the entire claim on its ear.

There's no point in diving into the plethora of data that contradicts the entire tamale.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member


As you can see, there is no uncertainty. NASA and NOAA are stating fact when they say 2014 was the hottest on record. Take particular note of the heading "Ranking of record years" and try to understand what it means.
 
MuyLocoNC

MuyLocoNC

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:


As you can see, there is no uncertainty. NASA and NOAA are stating fact when they say 2014 was the hottest on record. Take particular note of the heading "Ranking of record years" and try to understand what it means.
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I fully understand the chart, it doesn't change the fact that they have so little confidence in their data and method and the fact it's all within the margin of error, that they can't determine the hottest year with anything more than 38% probability.

If their conclusion is so definitive, why is the probability so low?
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
MuyLocoNC said:
I fully understand the chart, it doesn't change the fact that they have so little confidence in their data and method and the fact it's all within the margin of error, that they can't determine the hottest year with anything more than 38% probability.

If their conclusion is so definitive, why is the probability so low?
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This post belies the falsehood of the underlined portion. You clearly do not understand the meaning of the chart or of the heading "Ranking of Record Years". There is no doubt in the report that 2014 was the hottest year on record. They have utmost confidence in this fact.
 
UncleBuck

UncleBuck

Well-Known Member
MuyLocoNC said:
I fully understand the chart, it doesn't change the fact that they have so little confidence in their data and method and the fact it's all within the margin of error, that they can't determine the hottest year with anything more than 38% probability.

If their conclusion is so definitive, why is the probability so low?
Click to expand...
you stayed up until 3:50 AM screaming "NASA!!!" at abandon after spending years calling them part of the AGW hoax.

complete meltdown.
 
UncleBuck

UncleBuck

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:


As you can see, there is no uncertainty. NASA and NOAA are stating fact when they say 2014 was the hottest on record. Take particular note of the heading "Ranking of record years" and try to understand what it means.
Click to expand...
time elapsed from 1998 to 2014: ~17 years.

hiatus.
 
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