Top Pheno % Rate

TriPurple

Well-Known Member
What do think the percentage rate of finding a top notch, best of the batch plant, when germinating seeds? 1 in 1000,... 1 in 10,000,..... 1 in 100,000,..... maybe 1 in 1,000,000?
 

Da2ra

Well-Known Member
I believe it was one of the greenhouse seeds breeders who said you would need 10,000 plants before you would start to see repeat phenotypes.
 

Bad Karma

Well-Known Member
I believe it was one of the greenhouse seeds breeders who said you would need 10,000 plants before you would start to see repeat phenotypes.
That's if you're going by Greenhouse's highly questionable "top notch" standards.
I've seen repeat phenos in as small of a bed as 20 plants (from seed).
It really depends on the parent selection, how they breed together, what they pass on, and what they don't.

What do think the percentage rate of finding a top notch, best of the batch plant, when germinating seeds? 1 in 1000,... 1 in 10,000,..... 1 in 100,000,..... maybe 1 in 1,000,000?
It's a kin to collecting baseball cards, you buy a pack of cards, and hope like hell that the 1984 Topps Don Mattingly rookie card is in there. Usually it isn't, that's just the odds, but once in a while you get lucky. That's the seed business, though. They can't guarantee the results. That's why we all exchange information on here through threads, and grow journals, to see for ourselves who's actually worth our hard earned money. In a pack of 10 seeds, you should find one, or two, stand out phenotypes. Bump that up to two packs of seeds (20 in total) and your chances of finding a total rockstar phenotype has increased exponentially. The more seed you run, the more amazing, genetic combinations you'll find. I have access to clone only strains but I still love running seeds for that very reason, the variety, and the surprises.

 

GUN1

Well-Known Member
Depends who bred them. If you buy an IBL (in bred line) you should get a pretty good ratio on the phenotype advertised. if your buying an F1 cross it will depend on how well the parent stock were worked and how the preferred traits are passed to the offspring. A lot of people blab on about stable lines but most don't understand what that is. google mendelian genetics and punnet squares. if you put a small amount of time into learning those you can work to produce your own lines and even lock in your own preferenced traits in a single strain. Many lines will carry multiple stacked traits and you can work to breed out the ones you don't like and stack the ones you like all on top of each other.
 

althor

Well-Known Member
What do think the percentage rate of finding a top notch, best of the batch plant, when germinating seeds? 1 in 1000,... 1 in 10,000,..... 1 in 100,000,..... maybe 1 in 1,000,000?
All those answers are basically saying there is no possible way to know and there cant possibly be an "intelligent" answer to such a question.

How many planets in the universe are habitable?
 

GUN1

Well-Known Member
if you're looking at a single recessive phenotype you will see one in every 4 seed in f2. if you have 2 recessive phenotypes you will see both produced in the same plant once in every 16 seed. if you are looking at 3 recessive phenotypes you will find all 3 expressed in an f2 once in every 74 seed. if you have a single codominant gene you will see it produced once in every 2 seed in an f1 pairing. if you have 2 codominant genes you will see both phenotypes produced in a single plant once in every 4 seed. If you google punnett squares it is an easy way to produce your ratio of hitting multiple expressions of genetics in a group of seed. like i said earlier if you take some time to get a basic understanding of mendelian genetics and punnett squares you will increase your chance of producing the phenotypes you are chasing. which in most cases are the clones/parent the seed came from.The chances of producing a random beneficial mutation is larger but the chances are better the more you line breed.
 

althor

Well-Known Member
if you're looking at a single recessive phenotype you will see one in every 4 seed in f2. if you have 2 recessive phenotypes you will see both produced in the same plant once in every 16 seed. if you are looking at 3 recessive phenotypes you will find all 3 expressed in an f2 once in every 74 seed. if you have a single codominant gene you will see it produced once in every 2 seed in an f1 pairing. if you have 2 codominant genes you will see both phenotypes produced in a single plant once in every 4 seed. If you google punnett squares it is an easy way to produce your ratio of hitting multiple expressions of genetics in a group of seed. like i said earlier if you take some time to get a basic understanding of mendelian genetics and punnett squares you will increase your chance of producing the phenotypes you are chasing. which in most cases are the clones/parent the seed came from.The chances of producing a random beneficial mutation is larger but the chances are better the more you line breed.
Yeah but that is single traits, not all the desirable traits expressed in one single plant. Impossible to give that kind of percentage regardless of what squares you use.
 

GUN1

Well-Known Member
Yeah but that is single traits, not all the desirable traits expressed in one single plant. Impossible to give that kind of percentage regardless of what squares you use.
I don't think you know what you're talking about. How about you read it again.
 

doz

Well-Known Member
I think the growing environment is more important than pheno type. I have popped about 100 seeds over the years, of over 10 strains. Of all those strains, they all seemed to grow the same. Good pheno's or bad? I dont know, but I do know I have no had multiple pheno's within the same packs. I really believe that people screw up their own grows more than get multiple pheno's per pack.

Also, a good grower can takes someones worst "pheno" and turn it into something. Dont put so much stock in pheno's. While there is something to it, I firmly believe people make it out to be more than it really is.
 

GUN1

Well-Known Member
I have seen an amazing cut of alien cookies f2 by jaws turn to utter crap from poor husbandry but if you can identify the trait you want to keep and if it does pass on in a dominant or recessive fashion you can start to group them. You might have a plant throw ridiculous trichome coverage and breed it and find it will pass as a recessive gene. Or a purple pheno may pass dominantly. if you can identify it you can lock it in and add to it.
 

HeartIandhank

Well-Known Member
I think the growing environment is more important than pheno type. I have popped about 100 seeds over the years, of over 10 strains. Of all those strains, they all seemed to grow the same. Good pheno's or bad? I dont know, but I do know I have no had multiple pheno's within the same packs. I really believe that people screw up their own grows more than get multiple pheno's per pack.

Also, a good grower can takes someones worst "pheno" and turn it into something. Dont put so much stock in pheno's. While there is something to it, I firmly believe people make it out to be more than it really is.
I would strongly disagree..

sure.. diversity is a tad limited in the cannabis hybrid seed biz.. but genetics are not just some minor aspect of a grow that holds little influence.

I would say the other way around.. assuming you have adequate growing conditions it is ALL about the genetics.

Practically no one is stabilizing MJ seeds to the point of having little to no diversity among sibblings..

I don't mean to be hostile.. but I can't understand how anyone could get through 100 seeds and hold the opinion you have on the matter. I've popped more than 100 seeds THIS YEAR. I can assure you genetics are much much more responsible for the end product than you are giving credit for.. Assuming adequate conditions.. that is.
 
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HeartIandhank

Well-Known Member
To answer the OP question..

It totally depends.. I would say a proper pheno hunt, on average, would include 100 females.

I found a pretty stellar plant among 65ish females recently.. quality, yield, balanced, mold resistant, everything. It hits on all cylinders.
 

OGEvilgenius

Well-Known Member
I think the growing environment is more important than pheno type. I have popped about 100 seeds over the years, of over 10 strains. Of all those strains, they all seemed to grow the same. Good pheno's or bad? I dont know, but I do know I have no had multiple pheno's within the same packs. I really believe that people screw up their own grows more than get multiple pheno's per pack.

Also, a good grower can takes someones worst "pheno" and turn it into something. Dont put so much stock in pheno's. While there is something to it, I firmly believe people make it out to be more than it really is.
Gonna have to strongly disagree. You've probably chosen some more uniform lines. But for me I see a difference in every single plant I've ever grown, from every single line. And I guarantee that there are definite genetics differences in these plants as well. The differences may be small at times, but they are always there. I have yet to see a line that offers perfectly uniform plants I doubt I'll see it any time soon with this plant.

Most uniform I've seen is probably Peyote Purple. But every plant had some differences, although small.

Also, I agree with everything else Hank says.

Although you can find good plants in a lot lower numbers than he's suggesting assuming a strong lineage, the real cream takes quite a bit of hunting.
 
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