To bad Cali priced themselves out of a legal market. Black market is going to florish.
I have to disagree, I believe based on my research and observation that both markets will fail miserably. The fact is this last year almost 13 million pounds were estimated to be cultivated. However, only around 2.1 million pounds were consumed in California (est). The fact is going by those numbers they estimate that nearly 4 to 5 million Californians currently have Medical Recommendations (once again these numbers are not verifiable). The problem for Californias market on either side is that Medical is not currently taxed and neither will it be after January 1, 2018. Where are these additional smokers coming from? Even if the prices rise as we are currently seeing in the very few who are designing store fronts that model the Gap. The price of weed is never going back up. The dispensaries in most parts of the State have stopped buying grey market weed. To those who still do they are low balling truly Top Shelf cannabis down to what ive heard to be around 1400-1600 a pound. Cannabis Bench Mark seems to confirm this number. Green house and Outdoor is reveling in the fears that most dispensaries have which has brought an other wise stable market to a free for all. Ive seen Craigslist postings where dudes are marketing Units of top shelf for 900 bucks because they have a lot of it and no one is buying.
The fact is the statement that says "The Black Market will Flourish" was the same statement made after the end of Alcohol Prohibition. Moonshiners however did not make their way to this mecca. The fact is the Cartels producing lower and lower quality weed will drop the prices down to bare prices (Mark my words we will see 1 dollar a gram wholesale) schwag flooding California. The problem wont be the taxes which could rise as much as 45%. The problem will be that people mostly the Growers whom have made a decent living on their small grows are now being pushed out by a confusing over regulated and completely idiotic good ol boys club of big business getting all the licenses in local jurisdictions. Leaving the small grower "the Boutique" stuff in the dust.
So, to wrap it up the fact is I believe the market will flat line by March. Just as it did in Colorado. The only difference will be that the Colorado market prices went back up some. California will not. As long as it remains federally illegal without the ability for growers to export, the black market and the regular market are both strangled by one simple rule of economics. Demand