Lockdowns don't work.

[jimihendrix1]

Makes no difference. You still never outrun me in a 50k race. Or a 50 miler. The Yamacraw 50k was warmup for the Big Turtle 50 miler. I run both every year.

 

[CunningCanuk]

I have rebutted almost all of the comments in this thread. Those I did not were simply redundant arguments and shitposts.

You've offered nothing challenging. But anyway, whalecum new member.

I guess we'll see who is right in a few weeks. I honestly hope it's you but I'm doubtful.

 

[jimihendrix1]

Theres going to be a fucking explosion of deaths, and new infections. FEMA is even saying so, yet tRUmp says it aint so. Hes going by his Gut, of which he has a huge one.

White House disavows administration forecast of 3,000 coronavirus deaths a day by June


Rob Crilly
4 hrs ago

The White House distanced itself from a bleak administration forecast published on Monday by the New York Times, suggesting that the coronavirus death toll will increase to about 3,000 a day by early June.
The projection, based on modeling collated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecasts the number of deaths will almost double from the current level of about 1,750 at a time when President Trump is encouraging states to lift social distancing restrictions.

It also forecasts about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, a huge increase from about 25,000 cases now.


Its going to be a clusterfuck.

 

[abandonconflict]

Full PDF of the CDC data, upon which the FEMA report was based, upon which New York Times made the news article which appears to correlate the model with the effects of the implementation or easing of lockdowns:

 

[abandonconflict]

Particularly in this graph:

You can see that the model underestimated cases early on and projects an inflection toward a sharper rise in the next several days. Reported cases early on, were above the projected estimate and are currently well below it with wide fluctuation.

This looks like they're either expecting a new outbreak epicenter to explode or a vast increase in the volume of testing. My guess is that Trump wants to avoid this testing.

 

[VILEPLUME]

 

[doublejj]

Makes no difference. You still never outrun me in a 50k race. Or a 50 miler. The Yamacraw 50k was warmup for the Big Turtle 50 miler. I run both every year.

 

[abandonconflict]

The worst divers I have come across were former seals. They were the hardest to teach because they thought they knew everything and they couldn't control their movements and damaged a lot of coral with their fins. I ended up having to put these guys in a novice group because my other clients disliked having to cut dives short when their tanks were depleted. NAUI gave them divemaster certs without checking if they had any skills.

To be fair, they had probably never tried open circuit scuba and never blew bubbles, and just couldn't manage their bouyancy. They seemed to have a pretty good understanding of hyperbaric physics and physiology and they were definitely in shape.

 

[Budley Doright]

 

[UncleBuck]

The worst divers I have come across were former seals. They were the hardest to teach because they thought they knew everything and they couldn't control their movements and damaged a lot of coral with their fins. I ended up having to put these guys in a novice group because my other clients disliked having to cut dives short when their tanks were depleted. NAUI gave them divemaster certs without checking if they had any skills.

To be fair, they had probably never tried open circuit scuba and never blew bubbles, and just couldn't manage their bouyancy. They seemed to have a pretty good understanding of hyperbaric physics and physiology and they were definitely in shape.

You’re not in very good shape, objectively

 

[Fogdog]

Particularly in this graph:View attachment 4555474

You can see that the model underestimated cases early on and projects an inflection toward a sharper rise in the next several days. Reported cases early on, were above the projected estimate and are currently well below it with wide fluctuation.

This looks like they're either expecting a new outbreak epicenter to explode or a vast increase in the volume of testing. My guess is that Trump wants to avoid this testing.

This all shows lockdowns work and ending them without a containment strategy is a complete failure by this administration. People who endorse the administrations tactics are members of a death cult.

 

[abandonconflict]

This all shows lockdowns work and ending them without a containment strategy is a complete failure by this administration. People who endorse the administrations tactics are members of a death cult.

I agree, however that does not mean one should "endorse" the tactics of another political body just because it is opposed to the administration. One of the main points against lockdowns that have been made by the experts opposed to that strategy is that communities are then left in a conundrum with regard to ending lockdowns and seeing healthcare systems that are already overburdened seeing a new wave of patients who are now able to seek care for conditions unrelated to the pandemic. It forces a wave of visits to other peripheral medical services as well, such as dentistry and plastic surgery.

Economies are forced to ease lockdowns, because they are unsustainable and then a wave of new cases crashes onto an overburdoned economy with a famine looming. This is compounded by the very fact that they don't do enough to slow the spread yo keep the healthcare systems from being overloaded anyway. Many very senior epidemiologists and scientists from other relevant fields have made such warnings. I'll list a few of them so you can google and get informed:

Johan Giesecke, Epidemiologist (one of the most senior in the world)
Michael Osterhelm, Epidemiologist
Knut Wittkowski, Epidemiologist
Anders Tegnell, Epidemiologist
Michael Levitt, Structural Biologist and Nobel Laureate
Jay Battacharya, Professor of Medicine at Stanford
David Katz, MD and former director of Yale Griffin Preventive Research Center
John Ioannidis, MD and Epidemiologist

All of whom have written opeds or authored research concluding against lockdowns as a strategy in general.

 

[PadawanWarrior]

I agree, however that does not mean one should "endorse" the tactics of another political body just because it is opposed to the administration. One of the main points against lockdowns that have been made by the experts opposed to that strategy is that communities are then left in a conundrum with regard to ending lockdowns and seeing healthcare systems that are already overburdened seeing a new wave of patients who are now able to seek care for conditions unrelated to the pandemic. It forces a wave of visits to other peripheral medical services as well, such as dentistry and plastic surgery.

Economies are forced to ease lockdowns, because they are unsustainable and then a wave of new cases crashes onto an overburdoned economy with a famine looming. This is compounded by the very fact that they don't do enough to slow the spread yo keep the healthcare systems from being overloaded anyway. Many very senior epidemiologists and scientists from other relevant fields have made such warnings. I'll list a few of them so you can google and get informed:

Johan Giesecke, Epidemiologist (one of the most senior in the world)
Michael Osterhelm, Epidemiologist
Knut Wittkowski, Epidemiologist
Anders Tegnell, Epidemiologist
Michael Levitt, Structural Biologist and Nobel Laureate
Jay Battacharya, Professor of Medicine at Stanford
David Katz, MD and former director of Yale Griffin Preventive Research Center
John Ioannidis, MD and Epidemiologist

All of whom have written opeds or authored research concluding against lockdowns as a strategy in general.

I found something you can spend part of your stimulus check on. Just trying to help.

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[Fogdog]

I agree, however that does not mean one should "endorse" the tactics of another political body just because it is opposed to the administration. One of the main points against lockdowns that have been made by the experts opposed to that strategy is that communities are then left in a conundrum with regard to ending lockdowns and seeing healthcare systems that are already overburdened seeing a new wave of patients who are now able to seek care for conditions unrelated to the pandemic. It forces a wave of visits to other peripheral medical services as well, such as dentistry and plastic surgery.

Economies are forced to ease lockdowns, because they are unsustainable and then a wave of new cases crashes onto an overburdoned economy with a famine looming. This is compounded by the very fact that they don't do enough to slow the spread yo keep the healthcare systems from being overloaded anyway. Many very senior epidemiologists and scientists from other relevant fields have made such warnings. I'll list a few of them so you can google and get informed:

Johan Giesecke, Epidemiologist (one of the most senior in the world)
Michael Osterhelm, Epidemiologist
Knut Wittkowski, Epidemiologist
Anders Tegnell, Epidemiologist
Michael Levitt, Structural Biologist and Nobel Laureate
Jay Battacharya, Professor of Medicine at Stanford
David Katz, MD and former director of Yale Griffin Preventive Research Center
John Ioannidis, MD and Epidemiologist

All of whom have written opeds or authored research concluding against lockdowns as a strategy in general.

Just saying, that projection and model is a description of what happens when we fail. I'm willing to accept there may be good science behind it, I just reject the inputs, not the model or it's outputs. Lockdowns work, also so does expanded testing, contact tracing and quarantines. We can do better. We can demand better too. I do.

 

[PadawanWarrior]

Just saying, that projection and model is a description of what happens when we fail. I'm willing to accept there may be good science behind it, I just reject the inputs, not the model or it's outputs. Lockdowns work, also so does expanded testing, contact tracing and quarantines. We can do better. We can demand better too. I do.

Finally a little rationality.

The abondon guy actually thinks the Earth is flat, or he's just a troll.

You'd think if he's using a picture from Idiocracy for his avatar, that he wouldn't be one of the dumbasses. But it's getting harder to surprise me on here anymore.

 

[Fogdog]

Finally a little rationality.

The abondon guy actually thinks the Earth is flat, or he's just a troll.

You'd think if he's using a picture from Idiocracy for his avatar, that he wouldn't be one of the dumbasses. But it's getting harder to surprise me on here anymore.

It's telling that the only people lately who agree with him are nutters who either claim the epidemic is a Jewish hoax or a flat earther.

 

[abandonconflict]

Just saying, that projection and model is a description of what happens when we fail. I'm willing to accept there may be good science behind it, I just reject the inputs, not the model or it's outputs. Lockdowns work, also so does expanded testing, contact tracing and quarantines. We can do better. We can demand better too. I do.

It's already incorrect. A slight underestimation in the early part of such a linear graph changes the trajectory drastically and the upward inflection is like right now really, maybe the next few days it becomes noticeable enough to really call it an inflection. That's on projected, recorded already shows it's pretty far off.

That's a linear graph of cases per day right from the CDC model. Nonetheless, I think it should absolutely be taken seriously as a worst case scenario for which we should be prepared. Remember, they're not easing the lockdowns due to concern for the cost in lives or lack thereof. They are reopening because they have to. Otherwise, a famine on top of a pandemic will cause even more death.

 

[abandonconflict]

Finally a little rationality.

The abondon guy actually thinks the Earth is flat, or he's just a troll.

You'd think if he's using a picture from Idiocracy for his avatar, that he wouldn't be one of the dumbasses. But it's getting harder to surprise me on here anymore.

Show us your assault rifle 15 again.

 

[abandonconflict]

It's telling that the only people lately who agree with him are nutters who either claim the epidemic is a Jewish hoax or a flat earther.

It's telling that you have to distort my argument and put me into the Trump camp in order to criticize my position. My case is against lockdowns and is based on evidence including serosurveys and the very epidemiology that was supposed to support the "flatten the curve" arguments, which have failed. The elephant in the room here is that there is no direct evidence supporting the notion that lockdowns have "flattened the curve" such that overall cases have been within healthcare capacity. All of the worst outbreaks have occured under lockdown and all of the most successful containments have occured without them. Now, we're watching a controlled outbreak in Sweden that will result in herd immunity in mere weeks.

No vaccine has ever been developed in under four years.

 

[PadawanWarrior]

Show us your assault rifle 15 again.

I think you need a girlfriend man. You seem to have nothing else to do but post nonsense.