Fogdog
Well-Known Member
source?
War
- Thread starter captainmorgan
- Start date
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
18 more HIMARS should more than double the number they have now, enough rockets might be an issue. Ukraine has not even used any of the $40 billion of lend lease aid yet. They also appear to be capturing lots of Russian abandoned equipment on their advances when they can break through and ammo too, which appears to be scattered in many smaller ammo dumps, some in the woods, that would be difficult to move. The Russians don't appear trained and disciplined enough to destroy their equipment and that is often turned on them as soon as the white crosses are painted over the Z s, or a few days later.
I'll bet a big part of their reserve forces of older guys are groups of mechanics that specialize in maintaining and getting this equipment up and running in the field. There are probably civilian organizations in the rear doing heavy repair and refurbishment of equipment damaged or captured. They could end up with 20 BTGs worth of shit soon between Luhansk and Kherson. They have lots of old guys with guns to move in behind the front-line troops, secure their gains, main check points, pick up equipment and dead Russian bodies etc. For a war like Ukraine these motivated reseve forces are invaluable in multiplying the combat power of the regular army and I imagine they are doing a lot of logistical support too, freeing up younger fitter army troops. Territorials probably get paid a lot less than the regular army and most likely house and support themselves in their home districts until needed elsewhere.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
It speaks volumes and will drive the rightwing Russians wild, fuel that paranoia!
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
That guy's comments about Belarus agreeing to mobilize 100,000 troops including food, armaments and supplies got me looking for supporting information. I found the following link, which makes that seem less likely:
Four reasons Belarus isn’t likely to send troops to Ukraine
Fighting Russia’s war would not help Lukashenko stay in power
Analysis by Tatsiana Kulakevich
September 14, 2022
Throughout the conflict, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a launchpad for hundreds of airstrikes against Ukrainian targets. But Lukashenko has abstained from sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine.
Would Lukashenko change tack, and send Belarus troops to aid the Russian invasion? Here are four reasons the likelihood of a military advance from Belarus, or the Belarusian army invading Ukraine, remains low.
A permanent Russian military presence isn’t in Lukashenko’s interest
Any Belarusian troops sent to Ukraine would rely on the Russian command infrastructure. With the Russian army already on Belarusian territory and deepening integration between Russia and Belarus moving toward uniting the two countries’ economies and military and political structures, losing control is not in Lukashenko’s interests.
Lukashenko has been actively demilitarizing the Belarusian army since the invasion, by handing over military equipment and ammunition to Putin. In August, Russia received over 12,000 tons of ammunition from Belarus.
Sanctions have weakened Lukashenko’s support from domestic allies
Lukashenko continues to hang on to power. However, some of his close political insiders appear to oppose the decision to back Putin’s war against Ukraine
Russia’s war is not popular in Belarus
A majority of Belarusians do not want their country to take part in the war against Ukraine. According to a Chatham House poll conducted in August, only 5 percent of Belarusians favored sending troops to support Russia, while 2 percent wanted Belarus to side with Ukraine. About 70 percent of Belarusians indicated their refusal to engage in the conflict.
Belarus can’t actually spare the troops
A majority of the troops who serve in the Belarus army are conscripts doing compulsory military service — many soldiers are probably interested only in serving out their term. Belarus’s active personnel count is around 45,500 (less than 1 percent of the total population), with about 25 percent serving as contractors.
Other than Belarus not having the equipment, men and ammunition for a 100,000 man army, the Belarussian people and their leaders oppose the idea. Other than Lukashenko is not a popular leader -- Lukashenko lost the election and holds onto power through a military coup which was only successful because Putin sent troops into Ukraine to suppress the opposition. Other all of that, Lukashenko could decide to commit political suicide by joining Russia in the war with Ukraine that Putin said would be over in less than a week.
So, yeah, probably not going to happen.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Here is another supply hub that could offer up some more Russian lend lease of equipment and ammo that will be promptly returned.
BudmanTX
Well-Known Member
nothing like saying "we're here" in the red square
BudmanTX
Well-Known Member
next stop....sovatove, the rail link there....
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Not to mention a coup and/or revolution at home, the army already refused point blank to go earlier in the war, and they sure as Hell don't want to tangle with Ukraine now. Belarus is the next domino to fall IMHO and is in effect currently occupied by Russian internal security forces. Ukraine and Poland would instantly recognize and support a new government there, so would the Baltic states. I don't think Vlad will have much left when Ukraine is done with him, things can happen during the internal turmoil and confusion of a power change in a totalitarian regime.
This war has demonstrated Russia's weakness and emboldened their bullied and manipulated neighbors who are asserting their independence. Courage like panic is contagious, the Russians are panicking, and the Ukrainian's courage is spreading to Russia's other neighbors. Uncle Sam ain't been far behind either, in places like Georgia or other countries in the region.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Moscow is only a couple of hundred miles from Ukraine, real close for a missile or suicide drone. Someone like that could have a laser pointer, say built into a cellphone and designate Vlad's car for an arriving or loitering drone or swarm of them! Say they made killer drones with pusher props and swept wings that could go 200 mph with a range of 300 miles or so. Something that could carry 100pounds of explosive, a 155mm shell weighs that much but only has about a quarter of the explosive by weight.
They want to stay away from doing that in cities however and focus on vital rail and transport links in the middle of nowhere. I believe a key consideration will be how far the Russians can operate from their rail heads and the figure I've recently heard was about 25km for offensive operations. So, an obvious solution would be to drive the Russians to their borders and destroy the vital rail bridges up to 50 or 100km inside Russia. There are 10 rail routes into Ukraine from Russia and if the bridges leading into them are destroyed the Russian army will be trapped inside Russia.
It doesn't matter how big the army is, they will have to march to Ukraine carrying what they need on their backs or in commandeered civilian trucks. The Russian army is very heavily dependent on the railway network and have entire railway repair units, but rail bridges are difficult to replace over rivers when the crews doing it are killed by Ukrainian missile and drone attacks. Trap the draftees in Russia, it's the easiest, most cost effective and the most humane thing to do IMHO. I'm sure someone in the Pentagon has thought about it too and it's probably on the table. I can't see why it wouldn't be.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Notice they breakthrough and head straight for the biggest regional rail hub they can get to, cutting off or crippling supplies for thousands of Russians downstream.
BudmanTX
Well-Known Member
and that would be the next one to cut off, simply cause of it's proximity to the line of contact
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
The Russians are taking advantage of the extensive rail network in Ukraine and it particularly dense in the industrial east. The Rail network is the same wide gauge the Russians use, western railways use a narrower gauge. The rail network of European Russia is not as dense and developed as Ukraine's either. Logistics wins wars and the rail networks are the Russian's Achilles heel. You need precision weapons that can pack a punch to deal with them in the Russian rear, suicide drones or missiles, something with a 2 meter or less accuracy and commercial GPS can do that, at least with a drone.
Ukrainian Railways: Second Army of Ukraine
Ukrainian Railways: Second Army of Ukraine
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
They can reach out and touch it long before they get to it! HIMARS and 155mm artillery can deal with rail lines when in range. Yeah, they can repair them quickly, but not with a drone overhead dropping artillery fire on anything that moves!
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
The pigs part? Old professional memory. They’re better than apes (and more reliable than maga voters) for preclinical work on an investigational new drug.
The don’t eat people part? A combo of having read the Emberverse books (S. M. Sterling) and what happens to those New Guinea guys who get the laughing death.
Roger A. Shrubber
Well-Known Member
i build trebuchet and ballista as a hobby, mostly models, but i've built a few full sized units with friends...see the pin the sling rests on, at the top of the arm? the angle of that pin controls when the sling is released, too far back, and your ammo goes straight up, too far forward and it goes straight into the ground in front of you...i'd tip if forward and let flyThey had a handy tool for that.
If they are a little short of range and he splats against the stone wall, oh well.
Roger A. Shrubber
Well-Known Member
It would be possible to fuck up some railway lines enough to make it too expensive to fix, with a little planning, if it becomes necessary.
Flights of three drones each, maybe three flights per rail line. They drop explosive in three spots each, about 100-200 yards apart...Repeat that three times, a couple of miles apart, and keep the last location set into your artillery. If they bother to try to repair the line, let them get just about done, then bomb the shit out of them and it again...
seems like it ought to work...but i'm just an office chair strategist.
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
Is that a diet trebuchet? It lost weight.
Roger A. Shrubber
Well-Known Member
that kind of unit is operated by 4 or 5 men pulling the ropes, the big guys that tear down castle walls have counterweights that can run into tons...
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
Learned something new; thanks. Medieval aerobics.
