War

[Fogdog]

He worked with him for a while and knows him and his inner circle, so his opinion has some weight based on his experience.

I'm not doubting him. I'm just surprised at the idea that Putin could be talked into appointing a successor and stepping down. It would not be a war hawk either, but somebody who would get Russia out of Ukraine. He didn't downplay the idea that war hawks might take over but he said that would be temporary. He said If Putin or a hawkish successor continues to pursue war in Ukraine, eventually Russia will collapse like it did in 1917 and 1989-1991, both times triggered by defeats in war. But he seemed to be saying that in his view, an orderly succession is most likely.

 

[Budzbuddha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579600345252368385

 

[doublejj]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579600345252368385

 

[doublejj]

Enough with all this "defensive weapons" crap. It's time the Russian citizens feel this war.....

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This guy is an expert and has experience in such things.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579567052654010368

Imagine what the Ukrainians could do with better air defenses, or perhaps better defensive positions outside the cities.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579556135656255490

e

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I'm not doubting him. I'm just surprised at the idea that Putin could be talked into appointing a successor and stepping down. It would not be a war hawk either, but somebody who would get Russia out of Ukraine. He didn't downplay the idea that war hawks might take over but he said that would be temporary. He said If Putin or a hawkish successor continues to pursue war in Ukraine, eventually Russia will collapse like it did in 1917 and 1989-1991, both times triggered by defeats in war. But he seemed to be saying that in his view, an orderly succession is most likely.

There is suppose to be a legal order of succession, unlike previous collapses, this time they have the structure of a liberal democracy, they have the form, but not the substance. There is suppose to be an election next year and if civil unrest happens, it will be then, though power transitions in Russia often happen top down. We will soon see Putin's position will become untenable with defeats in Ukraine. I think his biggest concern is personal survival, if he leaves power, it would be too easy to blame him for the debacle and leave him holding the bag, then there are the war crimes, he just confessed to one publicly, like Trump!

 

[doublejj]

Enough with all this "defensive weapons" crap. It's time the Russian citizens feel this war.....

Did you see the huge protests by the Russian people today in Moscow against Russia targeting civilians?......Naw me neither..

 

[cannabineer]

I'm not doubting him. I'm just surprised at the idea that Putin could be talked into appointing a successor and stepping down. It would not be a war hawk either, but somebody who would get Russia out of Ukraine. He didn't downplay the idea that war hawks might take over but he said that would be temporary. He said If Putin or a hawkish successor continues to pursue war in Ukraine, eventually Russia will collapse like it did in 1917 and 1989-1991, both times triggered by defeats in war. But he seemed to be saying that in his view, an orderly succession is most likely.

I can imagine a small junta of his notional underlings making it a condition of surviving his imminently getting retired. It might be presented to him with more or less emphasis as the best of a small and bad set of available options. It would be a very Russian thing to do.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Did you see the huge protests by the Russian people today in Moscow against Russia targeting civilians?......Naw me neither..

Not a good plan, bad PR, go after rail infrastructure to hasten the military and economic collapse, it's gonna hurt however it's done, but some ways seem nicer than others. I figure just drive them out of Ukraine and retaliate on their vital rail infrastructure for missile attacks when they are gone. Ukraine will soon have better missile defense and Vlad is running out of them, already the kill ratio is 50% for drones and cruise missiles and can be improved by various means including more AA systems.

 

[doublejj]

Not a good plan, bad PR, go after rail infrastructure to hasten the military and economic collapse, it's gonna hurt however it's done, but some ways seem nicer than others. I figure just drive them out of Ukraine and retaliate on their vital rail infrastructure for missile attacks when they are gone. Ukraine will soon have better missile defense and Vlad is running out of them, already the kill ratio is 50% for drones and cruise missiles and can be improved by various means including more AA systems.

How well has all this "PR" sh*t been working so far?.......eventually you have to strike back at a bully, bloody their nose, let them know they are in a fight.....see "Doolittle raid"..

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

How well has all this "PR" sh*t been working so far?.......eventually you have to strike back at a bully, bloody their nose, let them know they are in a fight.....see "Doolittle raid"..

It's getting them all the help they need to defeat the Russians and reclaim all of their country while setting themselves up for post war prosperity and regional military and soft power. Slow and steady gets ya to the other side, Vlad doesn't have many missiles left and defenses will improve. If you wanna really hurt the economy and military of Russia attack the transport system of a vast country with no industrial base worth a fuck.

Soon the cars will be breaking down for want of parts, elevators and traffic lights imported from Germany will stop working, in two years the roller bearings of many their rail cars will be worn out and they can't even make replacements for something so basic. All this stuff needs a steady supply of spare parts and maintenance, the stolen western airliners are grounded due to lack of maintenance. The deeper they dig the hole the longer it takes to climb out.

 

[captainmorgan]

Saudi Arabia decided to fuck around and now they get to find out. Looks like we may be about to stop selling weapons to them and freeze any existing deals.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

It's too bad your time clock ran out for these lucky Ukrainians....
View attachment 5210807

Not my clock, my opinion means nothing, I'm just trying to look at it in different ways to try and see why these things are the way they are. A slow war is what we have, and it could be for some of the reasons I outlined, and it also takes time to build the kind of offensive power required. I'm just looking at the facts on the ground strategically, like the fact Ukraine has large gas reserves, the Russians will soon be gone, or gone enough and Europe is desperate for it. if it's developed then Ukraine will prosper, and moves are afoot to get them those seized Russian assets and cash. Meanwhile war is Hell and all we can do is watch and opine, we are along for the ride on this one, as are they.

 

[doublejj]

Not my clock, my opinion means nothing, I'm just trying to look at it in different ways to try and see why these things are the way they are. A slow war is what we have, and it could be for some of the reasons I outlined, and it also takes time to build the kind of offensive power required. I'm just looking at the facts on the ground strategically, like the fact Ukraine has large gas reserves, the Russians will soon be gone, or gone enough and Europe is desperate for it. if it's developed and Ukraine will prosper, and moves are afoot to get them those seized Russian assets and cash. Meanwhile war is Hell and all we can do is watch and opine, we are along for the ride on this one, as are they.

Ukrainians want off this ride now. "Moves are afoot" lol! Moves have been afoot since 2014 when Putin seized Crimea.....slow f*cking moves aren't working I'd say. Lets try some fast moving moves....like really fast moving ones

 

[Bagginski]

yea, i have been seriously wondering about the lack of russian air strikes...the Ukrainians have paper planes compared to them.
there has been speculation that they are holding their airforce back in case of a conflict with NATO, but that doesn't seem likely to me, it would be insane to preserve your airforce for a possible attack while your ground forces are getting humiliatingly savaged.

My guess is cannibalized for parts over the years, faked production records, poor-to-no maintenance, institutional indifference (as long as the paperwork looks good)…then the pilot bench: no idea there, but it seems to be the same generation that flew for Brezhnev

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Ukrainians want off this ride now. "Moves are afoot" lol! Moves have been afoot since 2014 when Putin seized Crimea.....slow f*cking moves aren't working I'd say. Lets try some fast moving moves....like really fast moving ones

I figure Joe knows what he's doing. I'm just trying to figure out why he's doing it the way he is, there are different forces at play here, from the hardline east Europeans, America, UK and Canada, to softer Germany and French to the pro Putin Hungarian. Recently the French and Germans have had a change in attitude, now that the Russian energy is gone, and Ukraine looks promising. They needed more air defense and weapons of all kinds, I'm all for it and it should have happened already. However, they had the best strategic and tactical advice on the go and can think for themselves, the Russian army had to be attrited first by blunting their idiotic offensives while offensive power was assembled, and the army readied. A lot of territorials in trenches in the east took a lot of artillery fire wearing them down and taking a lot of causalities while the offensive forces prepared.

Vlad is a cornered animal, no sudden moves or he could lash out in fear and panic. The last thing you need is the Russian people behind him with scenes like the photo you posted happening in Moscow shown on TV, the draft dodgers would return home and sign up.

 

[doublejj]

I figure Joe knows what he's doing. I'm just trying to figure out why he's doing it the way he is, there are different forces at play here, from the hardline east Europeans, America, UK and Canada, to softer Germany and French to the pro Putin Hungarian. Recently the French and Germans have had a change in attitude, now that the Russian energy is gone, and Ukraine looks promising. They needed more air defense and weapons of all kinds, I'm all for it and it should have happened already. However, they had the best strategic and tactical advice on the go and can think for themselves, the Russian army had to be attrited first by blunting their idiotic offensives while offensive power was assembled, and the army readied. A lot of territorials in trenches in the east took a lot of artillery fire wearing them down and taking a lot of causalities while the offensive forces prepared.

Vlad is a cornered animal, no sudden moves or he could lash out in fear and panic. The last thing you need is the Russian people behind him with scenes like the photo you posted happening in Moscow shown on TV, the draft dodgers would return home and sign up.

enough with the PR sh*t, the russian people are already behind putin, there's no PR war to win in russia. I haven't seen them protesting killing Ukrainians. If the russian draft dodgers don't have enough stomach to fight Ukrainians they sure wouldn't return to fight NATO.

 

[cannabineer]

My guess is cannibalized for parts over the years, faked production records, poor-to-no maintenance, institutional indifference (as long as the paperwork looks good)…then the pilot bench: no idea there, but it seems to be the same generation that flew for Brezhnev

There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots …

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Just the thing to protect the gas infrastructure in Ukraine they might depend on, then there will be no problem with the flow of German arms, particularly AA defensive systems, when used to protect their own vital interests.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579465948184313857

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

enough with the PR sh*t, the russian people are already behind putin, there's no PR war to win in russia. I haven't seen them protesting killing Ukrainians. If the russian draft dodgers don't have enough stomach to fight Ukrainians they sure wouldn't return to fight NATO.

It's just not smart to piss them off or arouse them, volunteers would increase for the army and opposition to the war, such that it is, would be harder. That's aside from it being a war crime and we are trying to enforce international law. It's easy and natural to be pissed about this shit, but anger while useful for motivation is poor for planning and execution, despite the movies. Vlad does shit for emotional reasons, like being pissed his bridge got blown up on his birthday and wasting diminishing ammo over it. This shit won't help him where it counts, on the battlefield and it won't keep his army from collapsing either.