War

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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
By the end of the year, I can see Kherson liberated and the Russian forces in the south of Ukraine divided from the east with the liberation of Mariupol or Metriupol. Further damage to the Kerch rail bridge then could see the Russians forced to withdraw from Ukraine's southwest and even Crimea. Further gains in the Donbas seem likely too with perhaps the liberation of Luhansk Oblast and perhaps even Donetsk.

The Russian army seems ripe for collapse nearly everywhere with winter starting and their ranks now are mostly conscripts, worse, people dragged off city streets and thrown into combat a couple of days later with NO training at all, cannon fodder. I figure the Ukrainians would target the experienced soldiers in the second and third lines of their defenses, that would be much more profitable than killing low morale untrained conscripts who can be captured. The more pressure the Ukrainians put on their C&C, logistics and experienced soldiers the faster the collapse.

There are multiple reasons to preferentially target war criminals, they have combat experience, they know what they did and would be reluctant to face justice, and thus surrender they would impede the surrender of others in their units. Prisoners have more value than the dead, the dead can't speak out and can't often be traded for living people. There have been lots of prisoner exchanges, since the more time the Russians spend in captivity, the more "infected" they may become, from Vlad's perspective. Prisoners, unlike the dead, can't be easily covered up, the dead can't call home to relatives either, or demand back pay etc. 100,000 prisoners are harder for Vlad to deal with than 100,000 dead who can be buried and forgotten, every one of them has a story of lies, abuse, corruption and injustice.
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When you look at Crimea on the map, everyone has done the atlas update with bridge missing. Betchya that puts a hair up his ass.
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Zelenskiy is a short guy, the point is if they have a chip on their shoulders about it or a small dick. It's not so much stature as what is in their minds and hearts, many women are short too, but don't have an issue about it.
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I bet he's taller than Putin..also this is a citable fact in which I included the citation + I was answering the troll..is this old men pick on Schuylaar day today, again?
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Ukraine and abortion could split the Republicans and their base, if they gain power in the house and we might not see party line votes on some issues. Some of them are from more moderate districts and white Christians fighting for liberty with guns is deeply appealing to many of their voters. Except for the MAGATs, republican support for Ukraine remains strong in some quarters. Even in partial power, there won't be much money or help from the Russians for the GOP. They would also get a lot of heat from their voters if they were soft on Russia. Trump will soon be in prison and McCarthy will do whatever it takes to be leader, even visiting Trump in the big house for instructions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582378207398940673
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
schuylaar said:
I bet he's taller than Putin..also this is a citable fact in which I included the citation + I was answering the troll..is this old men pick on Schuylaar day today, again?
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26 Intimidating World Leaders Who You Never Realized Were Super Short

While they may tower over peoples' daily lives, many world leaders actually come up a bit short when it comes to height. In fact, throughout history many powerful leaders fell on the punier side, some not even making it to five feet! These super short historical figures still made a big impact on...
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PJ Diaz

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
i know when they remove someone, they remove the posts that replied to them directly as well....but it's causing me some mental continuity problems...i sometimes wonder if my memory is getting worse than it actually is when i try to reference a post i made yesterday and it's no longer there...
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Perhaps you were moderated?
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
There is a growing feeling in Europe that they can handle the big bad bear on their own, the example and courage of Ukraine has been contagious. The war has revealed deep systemic Russian political and military weakness that the Russians can't address culturally or politically. Reforms at all levels of society, government and military are required and things won't improve until they do, they will get a lot worse though. The army won't improve until it is restructured into a NATO like fighting force, but that requires sergeants and soldiers who can think for themselves and a change in the culture of the military starting with the officer corps. Then there is corruption, both inside and outside the military and that is ingrained in society and is prevalent from top to bottom. They have a corrupt slave army with obsolete equipment and tactics, and it won't change until the current leadership is gone. They have a lot less trained troops and equipment now though and it is diminishing rapidly in Ukraine, with untrained reluctant conscripts holding the lines and the veterans left there with PTSD.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582410395045621761
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
Is this how a World War starts?
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No, there are many ways of fighting "world war" and Russia is cut off from international support, even China is wary about what it sends them. Iran is already in the sanction's shithouse and those missiles and drones were intended for Israel and the Saudis. The Saudis just gave Ukraine $400 billion and Israel might loosen up on weapons, now that the Iranians are aligned with the Russians. It would also be a way of testing and improving their antimissile systems against Iranian and Russian missiles.

Russia has few allies, and no real friends, India and Turkey are just desperate and taking advantage. China will move into central Asia now; Kazakhstan is on their border and has plenty of oil and gas and no way to get it out except through Russia, it also has a seas coast on the Caspian Sea. Uncle Sam and the EU are promoting peace in the region for the same reason, pipelines to Turkey and then Europe. Opening up this region and several countries there rich in oil and gas will lower global prices, as would bringing Ukraine's NG and oil online. Meanwhile Russia's gas and oil will be trapped in the ground like coal while we all switch to EV's and a green new grid, those will also eat into energy markets and prices, Russia will be screwed, even when sanctions are lifted as markets shift and their NG infrastructure would need a lot of work to bring it back by then too.
 
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