Climate in the 21st Century

[Roger A. Shrubber]

It was basically mid-late spring here yesterday. I think it might have been too short of a dormancy to wake up the apple/cherry trees, but it is getting really sketchy for those blossoms to pop at the right time with these late snows/false springs.

Seeing mosquitoes in January in Michigan is a bummer.

i had my back door and windows open for most of the day yesterday. we don't have any flies or mosquitos yet this year, but if it stays this warm we probably will within the month...and that ain't normal either.
i'm not putting my garden out till i usually do, but looking at the forecast, i could, with the only worry being early morning frost.
but global climate change is just a libtard crying point...
we're ten degrees above average for this time of year, and have been for at least the last 4 years...
i'm still seeing an occasional ant in my kitchen...i shouldn't see an ant until at least April

 

[Sativied]

Not many mosquitos in my area at all but it's already a given wasps will be a pita this summer. Already is after a mild winter but this isn't mild, this is straight up warm winter. Our national meteorological institute, founded by Buys Ballot in 1854, is currently developing criteria for defining a 'winter heatwave' because the climate (already) changed.

What's also strange is there's barely any difference between day and night temperatures. Difference between tonight and tomorrow is zero degrees, as in min and max temp is the same on Friday, 10C, almost 7 above average.

Never was it so expensive to heat a home or business. Nov/Dec we had a few unusual warm periods resulting in relief for many. When the temps dropped to freezing and below, hundreds of millions of Europeans wished for a warm winter. Maybe this praying thing requires a minimum of the world's population to wish for the same thing.

Our government capped natural gas and electricity prices per Jan 1, which in October was projected to cost 23.5billion in 2023. After last month and with the projected temps this month it's down to only 4.7billion. A large part of that is because people needing less, using less when they do need too, but because of that the rates drop fast too.

This graph about Germany's reserves I posted before in regards to the war in Ukraine. Notice how the storage level is steady, even increasing, in winter instead of late March. Right now 90% is filled, opposed to 54% last year and is much higher than usual around this time. If they and the weather keep it up, they won't need any gas from Russia for next winter.



Roughly 2/3rd of the reduction in consumption is from the unusual weather.

 

[cannabineer]

Not many mosquitos in my area at all but it's already a given wasps will be a pita this summer. Already is after a mild winter but this isn't mild, this is straight up warm winter. Our national meteorological institute, founded by Buys Ballot in 1854, is currently developing criteria for defining a 'winter heatwave' because the climate (already) changed.

What's also strange is there's barely any difference between day and night temperatures. Difference between tonight and tomorrow is zero degrees, as in min and max temp is the same on Friday, 10C, almost 7 above average.

Never was it so expensive to heat a home or business. Nov/Dec we had a few unusual warm periods resulting in relief for many. When the temps dropped to freezing and below, hundreds of millions of Europeans wished for a warm winter. Maybe this praying thing requires a minimum of the world's population to wish for the same thing.

Our government capped natural gas and electricity prices per Jan 1, which in October was projected to cost 23.5billion in 2023. After last month and with the projected temps this month it's down to only 4.7billion. A large part of that is because people needing less, using less when they do need too, but because of that the rates drop fast too.

This graph about Germany's reserves I posted before in regards to the war in Ukraine. Notice how the storage level is steady, even increasing, in winter instead of late March. Right now 90% is filled, opposed to 54% last year and is much higher than usual around this time. If they and the weather keep it up, they won't need any gas from Russia for next winter.
View attachment 5245200

View attachment 5245202
Roughly 2/3rd of the reduction in consumption is from the unusual weather.

Buys Ballot would be an epic name for our election commissioner.

 

[Sativied]

(giggling, ducking) but we can keep natural gas, right?
Gas can keep enough of those plants going while we build greener infrastructure.

No and yes. See Germany. We can’t keep natural gas and Germany’s switch from coal to now very expensive natural gas to meet theoretic self-imposed emission milestones “while they build a greener infrastructure“ rather than the going directly for the end goal has cost them and the rest of the world billions in multiple ways. The investement from government and subsidized investments from consumers, the unexpected hike in gas rates, and its negative effects on the climate. Obviously different from what you suggest (just plants) and it’ll probably take a couple of decades before we can do without natural gas but consider the following:

When comparing coal to natural gas, proponents of the latter often make the hydrocarbon comparisson and impact of the gas without looking at the way it is mined.

“Since methane has [27-]85 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide, natural gas with leaks or fugitive emissions during production and transport of more than 3.5 percent is worse than coal from a climate perspective. This means the EU’s single largest source of gas has significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions than the coal it is meant to replace.”

More ‘fun’ facts:
“Global methane emissions from the energy sector are about 70% greater than the amount national governments have officially reported, according to new IEA analysis”

“Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution”

“The energy sector accounts for around 40% of methane emissions from human activity”

While natural gas from the US is ‘cleaner’, it’s still relatively dirty.

As imports of US gas surge, so does concern over its environmental impact

Concerns about the climate impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are mounting as US shipments to Europe surge in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.euractiv.com

REPORT: Cheniere Energy’s Cargo Emissions Tags Undercount the Real Impact of American Gas Exports

Cheniere’s lifecycle emissions tags appear to be pinned to a misleading methane analysis that undercounts leakage volumes.

www.greenpeace.org

And it doesn’t end with mining:

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

Generally speaking it’s an improvement but it’s a low quality patch on a serious issue that needs to be addressed yesterday. Every part of the already way too small budget should be spent on renewables that help immediately and allow the better companies to develop and grow rather than fill the pockets of fossil fuel dealers.

 

[cannabineer]

No and yes. See Germany. We can’t keep natural gas and Germany’s switch from coal to now very expensive natural gas to meet theoretic self-imposed emission milestones “while they build a greener infrastructure“ rather than the going directly for the end goal has cost them and the rest of the world billions in multiple ways. The investement from government and subsidized investments from consumers, the unexpected hike in gas rates, and its negative effects on the climate. Obviously different from what you suggest (just plants) and it’ll probably take a couple of decades before we can do without natural gas but consider the following:

When comparing coal to natural gas, proponents of the latter often make the hydrocarbon comparisson and impact of the gas without looking at the way it is mined.

“Since methane has [27-]85 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide, natural gas with leaks or fugitive emissions during production and transport of more than 3.5 percent is worse than coal from a climate perspective. This means the EU’s single largest source of gas has significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions than the coal it is meant to replace.”

More ‘fun’ facts:
“Global methane emissions from the energy sector are about 70% greater than the amount national governments have officially reported, according to new IEA analysis”

“Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution”

“The energy sector accounts for around 40% of methane emissions from human activity”

While natural gas from the US is ‘cleaner’, it’s still relatively dirty.

As imports of US gas surge, so does concern over its environmental impact

Concerns about the climate impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are mounting as US shipments to Europe surge in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.euractiv.com

REPORT: Cheniere Energy’s Cargo Emissions Tags Undercount the Real Impact of American Gas Exports

Cheniere’s lifecycle emissions tags appear to be pinned to a misleading methane analysis that undercounts leakage volumes.

www.greenpeace.org

And it doesn’t end with mining:

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

Generally speaking it’s an improvement but it’s a low quality patch on a serious issue that needs to be addressed yesterday. Every part of the already way too small budget should be spent on renewables that help immediately and allow the better companies to develop and grow rather than fill the pockets of fossil fuel dealers.

Some key facts to add to this picture.
Carbon dioxide: (global warming potential 1; it is the reference)
anthropogenic emissions 35 000 million tons
atmospheric half-life about 100 years

Methane: (100-year gwp 27-30; 500-year gwp 7)
fuel industry emissions (not counting cow farts): 100 million tons
atmospheric half-life about 9 years

so despite methane’s high trapping coefficient, its smaller quantity and much shorter half-life are part of the story.

Another big, big factor is that the removal side of the CO2 cycle is saturating, which is seen by ocean acidification, a coming trainwreck whose ecological effects are just beginning to be seen.
Methane’s removal mechanism is in no danger of saturating, since it is driven by sunlight and atmospheric humidity.

 

[Sativied]

I guess it depends on the story you want to tell or picture you want to paint. It’s a bit like comparing cancer and aids, I don’t want either. In the end it’s the total net effect on the climate that matters and while yes 1 CO2 creates a longer term problem (something taken into account in the research about replacing coal with dirty gas), it doesn’t change the story. Natural gas is the new coal, sometimes worse. Far worse of the next decades, which is when it matters most.

“Experts stress that reducing methane can be an invaluable way of curbing global warming
The group of climate change experts is clear: Countries must make "strong, rapid, and sustained reductions" in methane emissions, as well as cut down CO₂ emissions.This is made clear in the Sixth Assessment Report on climate change published in August, which states that “Cutting methane is the single biggest and fastest strategy for slowing down global warming".

In addition, according to the UN, reducing methane is our most effective means of curbing climate change. Not to mention that it would prevent 260,000 premature deaths, 775,000 asthma-related hospital visits, 73,000 million lost hours of labour due to extreme heat, and 25 million tonnes of crop losses per year.

Reduce methane to reduce the global temperature by 0.3ºC
A global assessment of methane as a greenhouse gas published by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) shows that human-caused methane emissions could be reduced by 45 % over the next decade. Such reductions would prevent almost 0.3°C of global warming by 2045, and would help meet the Paris Agreement’s objective to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.”

 

[cannabineer]

Natural gas is the new coal, sometimes worse. Far worse of the next decades, which is when it matters most.

I have seen no reliable numbers backing this. The statistics are manipulable, e. g. looking at the 25- vs 100-year global warming potential of the involved commodities. The discussion decays into the subjective.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This might not take that long to go from the lab to production at the rate things are moving in the industry these days. It is an example of the kinds of work coming out almost weekly, there is a lot of money being invested in research and development, both by governments and privately.

On the way to high-performance solid-state batteries: Researchers develop ultra-thin solid electrolyte

Operational reliability, durability and high energy density: In these respects, solid-state batteries are superior in principle to conventional liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries. Some of the problems standing in the way of widespread industrial application—in the field of electromobility...

techxplore.com

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

What’s next for batteries

Expect new battery chemistries for electric vehicles and a manufacturing boost thanks to government funding this year.

www.technologyreview.com

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Due to a glut in polysilicon in China, solar panel prices are about to take a serious drop, so when they do (if they haven't already), it will be a good time to buy, add to that the government money and there is a real incentive.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611799833383243777

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[injinji]

A couple three years ago we heard the farm south of the sandhill was putting in 600 odd acres of solar panels. Then we heard it was not happening here, but a few miles down the road. And the one down the road has begin construction. There is a new substation there. Then (on the farm to my south) right after the cotton was picked this year, a post driving truck was working back there putting in posts. So maybe the solar farm is back on. I worry about a bunch of construction workers coming in and stealing me blind. But I will be very glad once the place is up and running.

 

[Sativied]

Saudi Arabia: Makkah mountains turn green after heavy rain

The mountains in and around the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia have turned green after weeks of heavy rain and last month’s flash floods, the Saudi Press Agency...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Images and videos of the unprecedented phenomenon have circulated on social media taking many users by surprise. Some have linked the sudden greenery in Makkah to a narration by Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) who is reported to have said: "The Last Hour will not come till the land of Arabia reverts to meadows and rivers."

 

[cannabineer]

Saudi Arabia: Makkah mountains turn green after heavy rain

The mountains in and around the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia have turned green after weeks of heavy rain and last month’s flash floods, the Saudi Press Agency...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Images and videos of the unprecedented phenomenon have circulated on social media taking many users by surprise. Some have linked the sudden greenery in Makkah to a narration by Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) who is reported to have said: "The Last Hour will not come till the land of Arabia reverts to meadows and rivers."

so they have their own chiliast problem.

n. b. when the spell chicken “corrects” chiliast
to Chili’s ask, is it any wonder that text corrector software is driving illiteracy? Or when it splits words like bootblack or seminude?

 

[Sativied]

Or when it splits words like bootblack or seminude?

Hate it when it does that. In dutch we glue words together endlessly or hyphenate so I'm conditioned to believe the spell check when it wants to split words.


Good news, just a little more global warming and we no longer need to take polluting flights to swim with dolphins

https://netherlands.postsen.com/trends/129541/Common-dolphin-washed-up-dead-on-Texel.html

Ok it's dead so not much swimming but there's hope, there's a striped spotted near the southern part of the coast.

Since last year, after centuries, we also have humpback whales again. It's like seeing kangaroos or flamingos without traveling... actually, in 2020 just a short drive away:

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Hate it when it does that. In dutch we glue words together endlessly or hyphenate so I'm conditioned to believe the spell check when it wants to split words.


Good news, just a little more global warming and we no longer need to take polluting flights to swim with dolphins

https://netherlands.postsen.com/trends/129541/Common-dolphin-washed-up-dead-on-Texel.html

Ok it's dead so not much swimming but there's hope, there's a striped spotted near the southern part of the coast.

Since last year, after centuries, we also have humpback whales again. It's like seeing kangaroos or flamingos without traveling... actually, in 2020 just a short drive away:
View attachment 5247078

The Thames river in England has been back alive for decades now as have others. Wildlife is encroaching on the cities, most people no longer hunt them and people are more urbanized, the countryside is largely empty in many places a hundred of two hundred years ago would have seen many small farms, most are gone as sons moved to the cities to work.

 

[cannabineer]

Hate it when it does that. In dutch we glue words together endlessly or hyphenate so I'm conditioned to believe the spell check when it wants to split words.


Good news, just a little more global warming and we no longer need to take polluting flights to swim with dolphins

https://netherlands.postsen.com/trends/129541/Common-dolphin-washed-up-dead-on-Texel.html

Ok it's dead so not much swimming but there's hope, there's a striped spotted near the southern part of the coast.

Since last year, after centuries, we also have humpback whales again. It's like seeing kangaroos or flamingos without traveling... actually, in 2020 just a short drive away:
View attachment 5247078

German is a bit promiscuous when it comes to compound words. Is Dutch as bad?

I hope I’m wrong, but the animal sightings you mention make me think of tropical overheat refugees.

 

[GoatSoup]

Califronia in a drought.... blub, blub??????

 

[Sativied]

I hope I’m wrong, but the animal sightings you mention make me think of tropical overheat refugees.

That and several other causes all part of the same chain reaction. Like the whales running out of food. There's also an abundance for some animals that normally wouldn't stay here all year or even come this far north. The flamingos found a nice moderate place in Germany.

On a similar note, the hedgehog will go from protected to endangered status in NL this year. Because of the warm weather they woke up way too soon.

German is a bit promiscuous when it comes to compound words. Is Dutch as bad?

It's at least as bad. Here's a good example:

meervoudigepersoonlijkheidsstoornis = multiple personality disorder

It's not uncommon either, the dictionary gets thicker and thicker just from adding new combined words. Examples from 2022 (translated)

Regretfamily - families who regret taking Ukrainian refugees in their own homes.

Some disappear from regular use but many do not. Aside from writing and spellcheckers, it's a good thing as it emphasizes certain topics, summarizes even, which makes it easier to discuss. The total is often more than the sum of its parts and the meaning is often expanded to similar fitting subjects. Like a regretfamily can be used for other situations where there's a trend of families making a family decision and regretting it as a family. It's all directly a result of spelling rules. Journalists, governments, they have to glue words together.

To really mess with people's heads a noun is zelfstandig naamwoord (independent name word)

Ok, back to topic:
Word of the year 2022: klimaatklever (climatesticker)

Climate activists make it official: Klimaatklever is word of the year - DutchNews.nl

Klimaatklever, a new word describing climate activists who glue themselves to priceless works of art, has been voted Dutch word of the year after a social media campaign, reports dictionary maker Van Dale. Over a quarter of the 15,000 people who voted thought klimaatklever (climate adherent or...

www.dutchnews.nl

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

We could see the price drop even more in the next few years with the current introduction of sodium based batteries that have energy densities almost as good as lithium batteries are today and far longer lifetimes. The amount of energy in lithium based batteries is likely to increase by fourfold or more over the next decade and their prices will continue to drop as well. We are starting to see more dirt cheap EVs that are cheaper to produce than ICE vehicles and in the next couple of years with government rebates there should be some bargains to be had. Solar panel prices are about to plunge too with a glut of polysilicon from new factories in China and there are US government incentives coming online for those too.

You could end up charging your car from your roof, or a portion of it and have a cheap sodium battery bank to store energy and help charge the car too. That would represent quite a step in energy independence for many and take a big load off the grid, especially with peaking using distributed storage. Daytime power rates could be really cheap in some places where the sun shines and that would be the best time to top up the car and home battery bank. If you have a battery bank (depending on the size) and solar, you could get the maximum break on power bills.

Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Costs In 2022 Are Nearly 90% Lower Than in 2008 - CleanTechnica

Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Costs in 2022 Are Nearly 90% Lower Than in 2008 & Capacity in North America in 2030 is Projected to by 20 X

cleantechnica.com