i find myself falling between you and Canna....I have confidence the Ukrainians will eventually win, but it will take at least another year, even if everything goes incredibly well this year. The russians have men to call up, but not a single one of them wants to go, or they would already be in Ukraine. They don't seem to have sufficient arms or equipment for these new recruits, which makes me wonder what their plan for them is.
The Ukrainians have limited manpower resources, but they're all very motivated, and very well equipped.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/04/05/when-will-ammunition-shortage-silence-russias-artillery/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-ammunition-bakhmut.html
Both sides seem to be having ammunition supply problems, russia has china, north korea, and iran to seek aid from, while Ukraine has NATO...i would go with the Ukrainians on that one, Iran might give them some ammo, but i doubt they have significant supplies long term, or the resources to step up production. North korea is in about the same boat...I don't think china will give them artillery ammunition, but i've always found it hard to predict what the chinese would do. I don't see any real advantage in it for them, or them having any real loyalty to their relationship with russia.
I would think they would be looking to consume russia's far eastern territories as soon as russia doesn't have the man power to protect them anymore.
I don't see this ending in less than another year and a half at least, but i don't see russia winning it, either...