The Junk Drawer

cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Fogdog said:
I'm unsure that I understand the theory behind "herd immunity" in this case. The protein used by the virus that is linked to the SARS-COVID2 epidemic to cross the cell wall is essential to human cells and so we cannot be truly immune to infection or we'd all be dead. The production of "blocking proteins" like the one that is triggered by MRNA vaccines is only produced in large amounts for a few weeks or months after vaccination. Today, only about 30% of the US population are up to date in their vaccinations. Disease rates are higher in that group but not overwhelmingly so. Over time, everybody can and eventually will be infected by it. It would seem that the difference between now and a few years ago is that the virus no longer causes the severity of disease in infected people that wrecked so much havoc in 2020. In the case of this virus, it's not that it is less infective, it's that in most people, our immune system doesn't react in the same way that it did when the virus was first introduced to our species. Or maybe I don't understand and an explanation from somebody who does could set me straight. .

I've never experienced symptoms of the disease, nor has my wife or kids but I have zero confidence that we've never been infected. We've stayed current in vaccinations but vaccines have only been shown to protect from infection for maybe a couple of month. So, I can only conclude that the worst is over because people' response has changed, not the virus.
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Speaking anecdotally, people’s response here is much lower than say three years ago. I see few masks.

Were the virus unchanged, it would still be as virulent and injurious as it was that first year. So the only way for immune response to be different is if the pathogen has changed.

Mind you; I’m no immunologist bla bla Holiday Inn Express, but I think it’s very reasonable that people and the virus have coevolved. The virus is becoming less harmful, and most people have had contact with more than one strain, leaving their immune systems to some degree readier for the old bad subtypes.

I think it is likely that many strains now bind to the protein well enough to elicit an immune response. Unlike the mRNA-tech vaccines however, the body’s immune choices are not limited to one gene product. It’s very possible that the infectious potential is high, but the rest of the viral machinery is no longer so aggressive.

I’ll wait and see what hospitalization trends look like. So far I’ve heard no news of an uptick.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Fogdog said:
(…) IMO, the idea that lockdowns, mask requirements, restaurant and tavern closures and other actions were not taken to protect individuals is right wing populist propaganda meant to discredit medical science and the politicians who listened to medical advisors. Those measures were explained as clearly as possible at that time by people like Dr. Fauci as being necessary to slow the spread of the infections so that our health care systems did not become overwhelmed.
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fify?
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
cannabineer said:
fify?
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I meant that those actions were not taken to protect individuals directly. Yes, I suppose more individuals survived but the motivation was to keep what happened in Italy from happening. They reduced the overall infection rate. But plenty of people didn't make it despite taking those measures.

This was what didn't happen in the US:

globalhealth.harvard.edu

Lessons from Northern Italy: Why even great Health Systems collapse under COVID-19 case load - Harvard Global Health Institute

By Elie Lehmann, HGHI | March 10, 2020 Here is something many people in high-income nations take for granted: The capacity of their excellent health systems to take care of...
globalhealth.harvard.edu globalhealth.harvard.edu

NY and NOLa went through it, maybe we could have avoided that too if Trump had been a better president.

Many public policies are not designed to directly protect individuals but are taken because statistics show higher survival rate. That doesn't mean much to families of the people who followed the policies but died anyway. Naysayers point at the people who don't make it as if it proves the policy wasn't effective.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Fogdog said:
I meant that those actions were not taken to protect individuals directly. Yes, I suppose more individuals survived but the motivation was to keep what happened in Italy from happening. They reduced the overall infection rate. But plenty of people didn't make it despite taking those measures.

This was what didn't happen in the US:

globalhealth.harvard.edu

Lessons from Northern Italy: Why even great Health Systems collapse under COVID-19 case load - Harvard Global Health Institute

By Elie Lehmann, HGHI | March 10, 2020 Here is something many people in high-income nations take for granted: The capacity of their excellent health systems to take care of...
globalhealth.harvard.edu globalhealth.harvard.edu

NY and NOLa went through it, maybe we could have avoided that too if Trump had been a better president.

Many public policies are not designed to directly protect individuals but are taken because statistics show higher survival rate. That doesn't mean much to families of the people who followed the policies but died anyway. Naysayers point at the people who don't make it as if it proves the policy wasn't effective.
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I guess I don’t understand. All populations are made entirely of individuals. So, any protection of a population confers advantage to individuals.

If a policy reduced my chance of the bad stuff from nine per cent to 8.5%, I as an individual benefited from that policy.

I do not subscribe to the idea that my individual outcome (at which point statistics break down and yield a binary y/n outcome) has consequences for a policy aimed at improving the odds.

To state it in an extreme manner: if I died of Covid with policies 1 through n in place, that doesn’t mean the policies were bad or flawed. A single-point improbable but real outcome does not invalidate an action designed to effect a statistical improvement in the big picture.
 
Sativied

Sativied

Well-Known Member
Sativied

Sativied

Well-Known Member

"Several countries in Europe – including Denmark, Spain, Belgium, France and the Netherlands – have seen exponential growth of JN.1 and, with it, rising hospitalizations. It’s also growing quickly in Australia, Asia and Canada."

I checked and the near doubling of waste water particles record in NL, is indeed of subvariants of BA.2.86, JN.1 being the dominant.

"The mutation in JN.1’s spike is at a position that Gregory said seems to help the virus escape our immunity. "

So... we're all gonna die after all.

Ok maybe not:

"The good news is that a recent study from Dr. David Ho’s lab at Columbia University found that the current Covid-19 vaccine, which was designed to boost the body’s ability to fight of the XBB family of variants, also offers good protection against BA.2.86 and its offshoots, including JN.1. "

Time to get a shot if you can and haven't yet.
 
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OldMedUser

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member
Sativied said:
Time to get a shot if you can and haven't yet.
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I got my new booster and the flu shot last month. Alberta hospitals are running close to and even over capacity in the cities. No RSV shot here tho.

So far neither the wife or myself have caught Covid and I'm hoping it stays that way. She stopped getting the shots after the 3rd one as she was having a bad reaction to them. She keeps wearing a surgical mask when shopping tho I've told her those kind of masks only help prevent her from spreading the virus if she's infected. Not a lot of help to keep her from getting it. All Moderna shots here.

:peace:
 
BudmanTX

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
Sativied said:

"Several countries in Europe – including Denmark, Spain, Belgium, France and the Netherlands – have seen exponential growth of JN.1 and, with it, rising hospitalizations. It’s also growing quickly in Australia, Asia and Canada."

I checked and the near doubling of waste water particles record in NL, is indeed of subvariants of BA.2.86, JN.1 being the dominant.

"The mutation in JN.1’s spike is at a position that Gregory said seems to help the virus escape our immunity. "

So... we're all gonna die after all.

Ok maybe not:

"The good news is that a recent study from Dr. David Ho’s lab at Columbia University found that the current Covid-19 vaccine, which was designed to boost the body’s ability to fight of the XBB family of variants, also offers good protection against BA.2.86 and its offshoots, including JN.1. "

Time to get a shot if you can and haven't yet.
Click to expand...
i just got through with Covid, got to admit this round was a heck of a lot better than the last time i got it......

fyi yes i'm vaxxed......
 
Sativied

Sativied

Well-Known Member
apnews.com

Suriname’s ex-dictator sentenced to 20 years in prison for the 1982 killings of political opponents

Suriname’s former dictator Desi Bouterse has been sentenced to 20 years in prison for the murders of 15 opponents of the then-military regime in December 1982, ending a historic, 16-year legal process.
apnews.com apnews.com

41 years later he's finally going to jail. At least for a year, next president (Bouterse's party leader) might pardon him.

In 1975 Suriname gained independence from NL, 5 years later Bouterse conducted a coupe, 2 years later he murdered 15 political opponents. From 2010 to 2020, he was their democratically elected president.

Result of the mess NL created and left behind. When they gained independence the people were given the option to become Dutch and move to NL or stay in Suriname. Roughly one third of the population (total 1mil) moved to NL between 1970 and 1980, a large part ending up in a new 'flats' neighborhood in Amsterdam. Still many ties, they're considered more like black dutch people than immigrants (there's no good way of putting that, well probably is... you get the point). While again, all NL's fault, the presence of Bouterse has always made it hard to support Suriname - especially financially cause corrupt Bouterse and his henchmen - which many of us do want. Not necessarily in the form of reparations for slavery, but still out of some feeling of responsibility.

Few hundred miles to the east west

www.bbc.com

Venezuela to hold military drills after UK sends warship to Guyana

It follows tensions over the oil-rich Essequibo region, which Guayana administers but Caracas claims.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

The area Essequibo in Guyana that now risks being annexed by Venezuela was a Dutch colony too. Around the same time there was in what is now the US a province called New Netherlands with the city New Amsterdam. During the first England-Dutch war the brits attacked Essequibo and other parts, pissing of the Zeeuwen (people from Zeeland, the coastal province south of Holland) who sent 7 ships and conquered Suriname from the Brits. Meanwhile the brits took New Netherlands and renamed New Amsterdam to New York, the start of the second war. After the 3rd it was decided both should keep what they had at that point. So the messy situation with Venezuela and Guyana goes way back.

Obviously our relationship with the UK is different now - even though they left us in the EU with the Germans and the French and the Spanish (all former great enemies) - the three red marked islands are still part of the kingdom of NL, includes several naval bases, and we're not exactly friendly with Venezuela either. Note the dashed borders…

Screen Shot 2023-12-29 at 23.15.27.png
 
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