The renewable energy changes and policy

CANON_Grow

Well-Known Member
So I had a look at truck sales because they have become more popular to see how the prediction worked when looking at recent trends:
1705472003784.png
1705472033822.png

Since that didn't translate real well, I looked at Apple iphone sales and pricing since it would have had a much bigger production increase in a shorter period of time:
1705472203636.png
1705472232504.png

Call me a skeptic, but I find it unlikely that a $5000 EV is going to become the base starting price by 2030. The price drop in solar has been stellar, but selling below cost is not sustainable long term, and we don't need to look further than the cannabis industry in Canada to see how that shakes out.

I'm all for lower priced batteries, but don't think the current Li-ion batteries will be what we have to move forward with, so I don't know how they can apply Wright's Law to battery cost? At any rate, I do hope costs come down because it is still pretty crazy:
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
So I had a look at truck sales because they have become more popular to see how the prediction worked when looking at recent trends:
View attachment 5361913
View attachment 5361914

Since that didn't translate real well, I looked at Apple iphone sales and pricing since it would have had a much bigger production increase in a shorter period of time:
View attachment 5361915
View attachment 5361916

Call me a skeptic, but I find it unlikely that a $5000 EV is going to become the base starting price by 2030. The price drop in solar has been stellar, but selling below cost is not sustainable long term, and we don't need to look further than the cannabis industry in Canada to see how that shakes out.

I'm all for lower priced batteries, but don't think the current Li-ion batteries will be what we have to move forward with, so I don't know how they can apply Wright's Law to battery cost? At any rate, I do hope costs come down because it is still pretty crazy:
Some of that appears to be fueled by social factors like trucks and even iphones. I don't blame anybody for being skeptical the assertions on farming are shocking. I think Wrights rule is just one of the analytical tools they use. They seem to have a bit of a crystal ball and are selling their services, and they seem to have captured the attention of some data scientists. A healthy dose of skepticism is needed though, because the implications of the forecast about farming are so profound. I'm trying to track the protein industry now we are 30% in on their predictions for the decade. I was posting stuff to see if anybody wanted to poke holes in it.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
So I had a look at truck sales because they have become more popular to see how the prediction worked when looking at recent trends:
View attachment 5361913
View attachment 5361914

Since that didn't translate real well, I looked at Apple iphone sales and pricing since it would have had a much bigger production increase in a shorter period of time:
View attachment 5361915
View attachment 5361916

Call me a skeptic, but I find it unlikely that a $5000 EV is going to become the base starting price by 2030. The price drop in solar has been stellar, but selling below cost is not sustainable long term, and we don't need to look further than the cannabis industry in Canada to see how that shakes out.

I'm all for lower priced batteries, but don't think the current Li-ion batteries will be what we have to move forward with, so I don't know how they can apply Wright's Law to battery cost? At any rate, I do hope costs come down because it is still pretty crazy:
Looking at the graphs you posted it depends on how you represent the data on phones cumulative sales would show a different picture, but the classic S curves were apparent in 2014 with the introduction of cheaper phones and both iphone and android were introduced in 2007 and continued to add features and processing power, but you can get a basic phone from China for very cheap.

As for truck sales that was a social phenomenon and emotional factors drove it and so were smart phones when they became fashionable, and every kid wanted the latest most powerful one they could get. One could also track the price of PC computers; you can pay a lot for a hot gaming system or buy a basic brick for a hundred bucks or so.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Some perspective on lab grown meat from 11 months ago.


Lab-Grown Meat: How Much Can It Help Save Our Climate? | WSJ Tech News Briefing

One way to reduce the greenhouse gases produced by the meat industry: cutting out the farm. Cultivating meat by growing cells without growing the whole animal has gotten tentative approval from regulators.

But keeping its environmental impact low means the industry will have to make certain choices. And companies like Upside Foods will need to find ways to make their prices comparable to traditional meat if they hope to convince consumers to swallow it.

The Wall Street Journal’s Zoe Thomas hosts this special episode of WSJ Tech News Briefing looking into emerging climate tech.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Some perspective on lab grown meat from 11 months ago.


Lab-Grown Meat: How Much Can It Help Save Our Climate? | WSJ Tech News Briefing

One way to reduce the greenhouse gases produced by the meat industry: cutting out the farm. Cultivating meat by growing cells without growing the whole animal has gotten tentative approval from regulators.

But keeping its environmental impact low means the industry will have to make certain choices. And companies like Upside Foods will need to find ways to make their prices comparable to traditional meat if they hope to convince consumers to swallow it.

The Wall Street Journal’s Zoe Thomas hosts this special episode of WSJ Tech News Briefing looking into emerging climate tech.
Interesting r&d but not really a solution for the world. Perhaps maybe we should examine cuisines that are economically, historically and culturally based on vegetarian cuisine to find ways to feed everybody well. Southern India, for example:

More and more cities and towns have Indian grocers who carry dal, which is a relative to lentils. Substitute 2 1/2 cup (2 cans, drained and rinsed) mashed cooked white beans if you don't have any dal on hand. Garlic powder (1/2 t) can be used in place of asafoetida.


Creamy Mung Dal soup with Chopped spinach

Servings : 6

Amount Measure Ingredient -- Preparation Method
-------- ------------ --------------------------------
2/3 cup mung dal skinless
8 ounces fresh spinach -- washed and dried
6 1/2 cups water
1 teaspoon turmeric
1/2 tablespoon coriander seed -- ground
1/2 tablespoon ginger root -- grated
2 tablespoons oil
3/4 teaspoon salt
1 teaspoon cumin seed
1/4 teaspoon asafoetida
1/4 teaspoon cayenne
1/2 tablespoon lemon juice

Wash, stem and rinse spinach and layer on a clean towel, leave to dry.
Chop before using in soup.

Place mung beans, water, turmeric, coriander, ginger and some oil or ghee
in pot. Bring to boil over high heat while stirring occasionally.

Reduce heat to moderate or low simmer, cover and cook over gentle simmer
for 1 hour until dal is soft and fully cooked

Off the heat, uncover and add the salt. Beat with whisk or mixer until
the soup is creamy smooth. Add the fresh spinach, cover and simmer for
5-8 minutes.

Heat remaining ghee or oil in small saucepan. When hot, add cumin seed
and toss then add asafetida, cayenne and fry for a one or two seconds
more. Then quickly pour and scrape pan into the soup. Stir well.

Add lemon juice and serve.

Per Serving (excluding unknown items): 125 Calories; 5g Fat (34.6%
calories from fat); 7g Protein; 14g Carbohydrate; 8g Dietary Fiber; 0mg
Cholesterol; 307mg Sodium. Exchanges: 1 Grain(Starch); 1/2 Lean Meat; 1/2
Vegetable; 0 Fruit; 1 Fat.


A cup of this on a cold day is good for the soul.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Interesting r&d but not really a solution for the world. Perhaps maybe we should examine cuisines that are economically, historically and culturally based on vegetarian cuisine to find ways to feed everybody well. Southern India, for example:


A cup of this on a cold day is good for the soul. More and more cities and towns have Indian grocers who carry dal, which is a relative to lentils. Substitute 2 1/2 cup mashed cooked white beans if you don't have any dal on hand. Garlic powder (1/2 t) can be used in place of asafoetida.


Creamy Mung Dal soup with Chopped spinach

Servings : 6

Amount Measure Ingredient -- Preparation Method
-------- ------------ --------------------------------
2/3 cup mung dal skinless
8 ounces fresh spinach -- washed and dried
6 1/2 cups water
1 teaspoon turmeric
1/2 tablespoon coriander seed -- ground
1/2 tablespoon ginger root -- grated
2 tablespoons oil
3/4 teaspoon salt
1 teaspoon cumin seed
1/4 teaspoon asafoetida
1/4 teaspoon cayenne
1/2 tablespoon lemon juice

Wash, stem and rinse spinach and layer on a clean towel, leave to dry.
Chop before using in soup.

Place mung beans, water, turmeric, coriander, ginger and some oil or ghee
in pot. Bring to boil over high heat while stirring occasionally.

Reduce heat to moderate or low simmer, cover and cook over gentle simmer
for 1 hour until dal is soft and fully cooked

Off the heat, uncover and add the salt. Beat with whisk or mixer until
the soup is creamy smooth. Add the fresh spinach, cover and simmer for
5-8 minutes.

Heat remaining ghee or oil in small saucepan. When hot, add cumin seed
and toss then add asafetida, cayenne and fry for a one or two seconds
more. Then quickly pour and scrape pan into the soup. Stir well.

Add lemon juice and serve.

Per Serving (excluding unknown items): 125 Calories; 5g Fat (34.6%
calories from fat); 7g Protein; 14g Carbohydrate; 8g Dietary Fiber; 0mg
Cholesterol; 307mg Sodium. Exchanges: 1 Grain(Starch); 1/2 Lean Meat; 1/2
Vegetable; 0 Fruit; 1 Fat.


A cup of this on a cold day is good for the soul.
Not everybody is gonna take to this stuff, if it should come to pass as predicted, we are 30% in on the timeframe, so we will see. If true, the political and demographic implications for America (globally eventually) are staggering. Lots of people will want to eat naturally though, but processed foods...
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Interesting r&d but not really a solution for the world. Perhaps maybe we should examine cuisines that are economically, historically and culturally based on vegetarian cuisine to find ways to feed everybody well. Southern India, for example:

More and more cities and towns have Indian grocers who carry dal, which is a relative to lentils. Substitute 2 1/2 cup (2 cans, drained and rinsed) mashed cooked white beans if you don't have any dal on hand. Garlic powder (1/2 t) can be used in place of asafoetida.


Creamy Mung Dal soup with Chopped spinach

Servings : 6

Amount Measure Ingredient -- Preparation Method
-------- ------------ --------------------------------
2/3 cup mung dal skinless
8 ounces fresh spinach -- washed and dried
6 1/2 cups water
1 teaspoon turmeric
1/2 tablespoon coriander seed -- ground
1/2 tablespoon ginger root -- grated
2 tablespoons oil
3/4 teaspoon salt
1 teaspoon cumin seed
1/4 teaspoon asafoetida
1/4 teaspoon cayenne
1/2 tablespoon lemon juice

Wash, stem and rinse spinach and layer on a clean towel, leave to dry.
Chop before using in soup.

Place mung beans, water, turmeric, coriander, ginger and some oil or ghee
in pot. Bring to boil over high heat while stirring occasionally.

Reduce heat to moderate or low simmer, cover and cook over gentle simmer
for 1 hour until dal is soft and fully cooked

Off the heat, uncover and add the salt. Beat with whisk or mixer until
the soup is creamy smooth. Add the fresh spinach, cover and simmer for
5-8 minutes.

Heat remaining ghee or oil in small saucepan. When hot, add cumin seed
and toss then add asafetida, cayenne and fry for a one or two seconds
more. Then quickly pour and scrape pan into the soup. Stir well.

Add lemon juice and serve.

Per Serving (excluding unknown items): 125 Calories; 5g Fat (34.6%
calories from fat); 7g Protein; 14g Carbohydrate; 8g Dietary Fiber; 0mg
Cholesterol; 307mg Sodium. Exchanges: 1 Grain(Starch); 1/2 Lean Meat; 1/2
Vegetable; 0 Fruit; 1 Fat.


A cup of this on a cold day is good for the soul.
I have traumatic memories of lentils for dinner.

I guess this is one instance in which I’m not going to be green. The above is a list of “what food eats”. (The silver lining is that I’m well past the midpoint if my life, so won’t be buying lightly killed animal for much longer.)

As for all that pseudomeat above, I’ll chill until they can print a dry-aged wagyu ribeye, a foie gras d’oie, and some fatty tuna belly sashimi that cannot be distinguished from animal-sourced by Michelin chefs.

Bonus points for printing the marbling in a cool pattern, like houndstooth or Penrose tiles.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Best to remember that bio is not batteries, these things self-replicate and scaling is not that big a technical issue once all the pieces are in place for the supply chains and they will be ubiquitous across the fermentation and cell culture industries and the basic dry powder mixes will be customizable with additives depending on what they want to grow. As they grow more things they will gain more expertise in yeast, fungal and animal cell culture over the next 6 to 10 years. It is a bit like the microprocessor industry when it took off with the same sorts of people and a ready market for a product, they think they can make cheaper. Milk whey and casein proteins are being produced by yeast fermentation and filtering which is easier than bioreactors and cell culture and can leverage conventional brewing technology to a large degree.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Not everybody is gonna take to this stuff, if it should come to pass as predicted, we are 30% in on the timeframe, so we will see. If true, the political and demographic implications for America (globally eventually) are staggering. Lots of people will want to eat naturally though, but processed foods...
Yes, yes, you will stick to your point no matter how impractical your position is. This is known.

But still, the solution you pose will feed maybe 5% of the world's population after the green revolution has replaced the brown tech we depend on today. What you posted will make money for some Silicon Valley entrepreneur and might make sense to a fraction of the people lucky enough to be born in wealthy nations.

The people of South India are more representative of the new world that is rising up in the wreckage of the fossil fuel era. Not some weird ass money making scheme like the one you fantasize about. They eat well. Their cuisine is not difficult to learn or to prepare at home and it uses local ingredients that are produced sustainably. Many ingredients used in their cuisine is not well adapted to colder climates but is a better starting point than the crap grown in stainless steel vats that is discussed in that woo woo sciencey nonsense you like to prattle on about.

Open your mind to how the third world eats. They eat well and many cultures have cuisines that are more appropriate to the green revolution than effing synthetic meat.

I've been using the following very simple to make crepe in place of bread lately. It's not a direct replacement but works well as a mop for sauces that are left behind after a main dish is consumed. It makes a passable replacement for corn tortillas. Also good spread with pressed yogurt, sprinkled with zaatar and pickled onions. It's high in fiber and has low glycemic index, so it's a good fit for those who are trying cut down on foods that cause high blood sugar. No invention is required. But the press is enamored with crap like you just posted.


Barley Dosa

Servings : 20 dosa

Amount Measure Ingredient -- Preparation Method
-------- ------------ --------------------------------
1 cup pearl barley
1/2 cup urad dal
1 teaspoon fenugreek seed
1 1/2 cups water
oil for cooking if needed
salt to taste -- optional



Wash barley, urad dal and fenugreek. Soak them in water for at least 6 hours.

Once it is well soaked, grind the ingredients into a smooth paste, adding just enough water to make a fluffy batter. The batter should not be thin.
Add a couple of tablespoons of soaking water to ensure enough biotics are present in the batter for fermentation.

Remove, transfer the batter to a bigger bowl. The batter may rise during fermentation so give it a big enough bowl. If you are new to making dosas,
place a plate under the bowl to collect any batter that may flow over.

Now place the batter in a warm spot to ferment. The fermentation may take 8-16 hours depending on where you live. An oven with proofing setting works well. About 85 F gives fluffy batter after 12 hours.

The batter is fermented when it smells slightly sour, ideally it should have risen as well. Volume of the batter should roughly double.

Add salt and water as needed. The batter should be pourable consistency, similar to a pancake batter/regular dosa batter. If not sure how much
water to add at the beginning, add 2/3 the amount listed above, proof the batter for 6 hours then add water as necessary to get a good pourable
batter. Prefer to not stir the batter after fermentation is complete as stirring releases bubbles that make the dosa fluffy.

Heat a griddle/tava on medium-high heat and grease it with ghee or oil. Cast iron griddle is always ideal to make doses.

When griddle heats up, pour a ladleful of batter right in the middle and spread it by moving your ladle in circular motion. Make a thin dosa.

Cover and cook. After 30 seconds remove the lid, spread oil or ghee on the dosa and continue cooking until done and it feels crispy.

As the dosa is spread thin, there is no need to flip the dosa and cook further. Using a thin spatula, gently peel the dosa off the griddle.

After each dosa, grease the griddle/tava with ghee/oil. A good nonstick griddle eliminates the need for oil, though the dosa will not be a crisp.

Source:
"https://platefulofveggies.com/barley-dosa-healthy-indian-barley-crepe
"
Yield:
"6 cups"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Per Serving (excluding unknown items): 52 Calories; trace Fat (2.9%
calories from fat); 2g Protein; 11g Carbohydrate; 3g Dietary Fiber; 0mg
Cholesterol; 2mg Sodium. Exchanges: 1/2 Grain(Starch); 0 Lean Meat; 0
Fat.

NOTES : Spread the dosa thin, for a classic dosa.
Also makes a good pancake without spreading thin depending on consistency of the batter. In this case, it won't be
crisp.
Barley dosa can be served with a chutney like Mangalore style coconut chutney (see site linked above)
Griddle temp should be around 500 F. The tava should be very hot when you pour and spread the batter. The heat can then be reduced as needed.
Place the dosa on a wire rack and let cool for a few minutes to keep crispy on the plate.
Serve as soon as possible but the dosa can be kept warm in an insulated tortilla warmer, though they won't stay crisp if you do.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
I’ll chill until they can print a dry-aged wagyu ribeye, a foie gras d’oie, and some fatty tuna belly sashimi that cannot be distinguished from animal-sourced by Michelin chefs.
Scientists currently: "Hold my beer".

I'm in the same boat though. That's why I'm all for PF milk and other dairy products for which it is easier to make it indistinguishable from the animal version. I don't need fake meat. Call it something else.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Yes, yes, you will stick to your point no matter how impractical your position is. This is known.

But still, the solution you pose will feed maybe 5% of the world's population after the green revolution has replaced the brown tech we depend on today. What you posted will make money for some Silicon Valley entrepreneur and might make sense to a fraction of the people lucky enough to be born in wealthy nations.

The people of South India are more representative of the new world that is rising up in the wreckage of the fossil fuel era. Not some weird ass money making scheme like the one you fantasize about. They eat well. Their cuisine is not difficult to learn or to prepare at home and it uses local ingredients that are produced sustainably. Many ingredients used in their cuisine is not well adapted to colder climates but is a better starting point than the crap grown in stainless steel vats that is discussed in that woo woo sciencey nonsense you like to prattle on about.

Open your mind to how the third world eats. They eat well and many cultures have cuisines that are more appropriate to the green revolution than effing synthetic meat.

I've been using the following very simple to make crepe in place of bread lately. It's not a direct replacement but works well as a mop for sauces that are left behind after a main dish is consumed. It makes a passable replacement for corn tortillas. Also good spread with pressed yogurt, sprinkled with zaatar and pickled onions. It's high in fiber and has low glycemic index, so it's a good fit for those who are trying cut down on foods that cause high blood sugar. No invention is required. But the press is enamored with crap like you just posted.


Barley Dosa

Servings : 20 dosa

Amount Measure Ingredient -- Preparation Method
-------- ------------ --------------------------------
1 cup pearl barley
1/2 cup urad dal
1 teaspoon fenugreek seed
1 1/2 cups water
oil for cooking if needed
salt to taste -- optional



Wash barley, urad dal and fenugreek. Soak them in water for at least 6 hours.

Once it is well soaked, grind the ingredients into a smooth paste, adding just enough water to make a fluffy batter. The batter should not be thin.
Add a couple of tablespoons of soaking water to ensure enough biotics are present in the batter for fermentation.

Remove, transfer the batter to a bigger bowl. The batter may rise during fermentation so give it a big enough bowl. If you are new to making dosas,
place a plate under the bowl to collect any batter that may flow over.

Now place the batter in a warm spot to ferment. The fermentation may take 8-16 hours depending on where you live. An oven with proofing setting works well. About 85 F gives fluffy batter after 12 hours.

The batter is fermented when it smells slightly sour, ideally it should have risen as well. Volume of the batter should roughly double.

Add salt and water as needed. The batter should be pourable consistency, similar to a pancake batter/regular dosa batter. If not sure how much
water to add at the beginning, add 2/3 the amount listed above, proof the batter for 6 hours then add water as necessary to get a good pourable
batter. Prefer to not stir the batter after fermentation is complete as stirring releases bubbles that make the dosa fluffy.

Heat a griddle/tava on medium-high heat and grease it with ghee or oil. Cast iron griddle is always ideal to make doses.

When griddle heats up, pour a ladleful of batter right in the middle and spread it by moving your ladle in circular motion. Make a thin dosa.

Cover and cook. After 30 seconds remove the lid, spread oil or ghee on the dosa and continue cooking until done and it feels crispy.

As the dosa is spread thin, there is no need to flip the dosa and cook further. Using a thin spatula, gently peel the dosa off the griddle.

After each dosa, grease the griddle/tava with ghee/oil. A good nonstick griddle eliminates the need for oil, though the dosa will not be a crisp.

Source:
"https://platefulofveggies.com/barley-dosa-healthy-indian-barley-crepe
"
Yield:
"6 cups"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Per Serving (excluding unknown items): 52 Calories; trace Fat (2.9%
calories from fat); 2g Protein; 11g Carbohydrate; 3g Dietary Fiber; 0mg
Cholesterol; 2mg Sodium. Exchanges: 1/2 Grain(Starch); 0 Lean Meat; 0
Fat.

NOTES : Spread the dosa thin, for a classic dosa.
Also makes a good pancake without spreading thin depending on consistency of the batter. In this case, it won't be
crisp.
Barley dosa can be served with a chutney like Mangalore style coconut chutney (see site linked above)
Griddle temp should be around 500 F. The tava should be very hot when you pour and spread the batter. The heat can then be reduced as needed.
Place the dosa on a wire rack and let cool for a few minutes to keep crispy on the plate.
Serve as soon as possible but the dosa can be kept warm in an insulated tortilla warmer, though they won't stay crisp if you do.
Argue with this, it is what I want to stimulate discussion about, and people are free to poke holes in the assumptions, personal dietary ideocracies aside of course.

 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
That said...

I looked up how they make those Beyond Meat burgers and it sure isn't something I'll ever eat. Ultra highly processed and something out of Dr. Frankenstein's lab for sure. I recently got 16lbs of hemp protein powder and another 16lbs of hemp hearts to boost my protein intake as I'm not a big eater so need to get more of that.

:peace:
Ever seen the inside of an animal meat factory? Frankenstein is an understatement for the horror hell scenes in a slaughterhouse. I wish butchers had the same clean working environments those labs have.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Scientists currently: "Hold my beer".

I'm in the same boat though. That's why I'm all for PF milk and other dairy products for which it is easier to make it indistinguishable from the animal version. I don't need fake meat. Call it something else.
Considering the time frames involved and its predicted impacts it is a worthy topic of consideration and discussion, whether you like or abhor it.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Scientists currently: "Hold my beer".

I'm in the same boat though. That's why I'm all for PF milk and other dairy products for which it is easier to make it indistinguishable from the animal version. I don't need fake meat. Call it something else.
The next step up will be replacing things like canned fish. Tuna cannot keep up with the fisheries, and canned has fewer texture issues than fresh-cut.

Some new-process king crab, Maine lobster and abalone would be nice also. I hear stories about when abalone could be had.
But the texture must convince. Texture makes or breaks the eating experience for me.
 
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