The renewable energy changes and policy

[DIY-HP-LED]

What do you expect with a glut of panels and the falling production costs of the big players. North American solar panel makers will have a challenge, high levels of automation in production and supply chains make it possible and Chinese companies like to vertically integrate if they can and own their supply chain too. North America and the EU are starting PV panel production too. It is the cheapest form of energy production, so it won't be going away, even as many smaller less efficient companies fold deployment will expand rapidly.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I joined some renewables groups from Asia and enthusiasm for solar and batteries is high in the warmer places and over 80% of the global population lives there. The governments in these places like energy independence and India is all in on solar and wind too and can benefit the most. Not just the government, but the people too, it's grass roots as well as top down.

 

[printer]

What do you expect with a glut of panels and the falling production costs of the big players. North American solar panel makers will have a challenge, high levels of automation in production and supply chains make it possible and Chinese companies like to vertically integrate if they can and own their supply chain too. North America and the EU are starting PV panel production too. It is the cheapest form of energy production, so it won't be going away, even as many smaller less efficient companies fold deployment will expand rapidly.

Where did you get that production costs are going down? The Chinese are selling excessive stock at under cost to raise cash. The report says that many will end up shutting their doors.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Where did you get that production costs are going down? The Chinese are selling excessive stock at under cost to raise cash. The report says that many will end up shutting their doors.

Yet global production and deployment of solar panels is doubling every year and should be close to a terawatt by the end of this year, in a couple of years it should be 2 terawatts produced and deployed per year... Scale production leads to lower costs as can having control of the supply chain and automation, all are at play along with tariffs and production starting in protected markets like ours.

The video was made by those affected by technological and economic change.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Where did you get that production costs are going down? The Chinese are selling excessive stock at under cost to raise cash. The report says that many will end up shutting their doors.

When it comes to solar panels and batteries, that means future energy supply and it is now strategic and the global free trade system has broken down while America and Europe adapt or deal, if they can. This can send shockwaves through the industry in southeast Asia, not just China.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Where did you get that production costs are going down?

Dunno about production costs, but I posted several articles saying solar panel prices are expected to drop quite a bit in the next year or two.

 

[printer]

Dunno about production costs, but I posted several articles saying solar panel prices are expected to drop quite a bit in the next year or two.

And yet it does not jive with what manufacturers are seeing. Do you think the "solar pundits" might be off?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

And yet it does not jive with what manufacturers are seeing. Do you think the "solar pundits" might be off?

Dunno, the industry is in flux with tariffs and lots of moving pieces. One thing is clear though, solar deployments will grow at a very fast rate over the next few years and the panels have to come from somewhere and production numbers are rising in spite of issues in some sectors and cost appear to be dropping. Maybe as some of these outfits go out of business their panel stocks will go for cheap. I do know one thing China cannot afford to subsidize every solar panel, EV or battery they make. They have a fiercely competitive large domestic market and are depending heavily on automation. They did subsidize their industries in the beginning, but market forces have taken over now, Amerca is aping it by doing the same thing now, tariffs on Chinese solar panels in Canada and the US are over 250% or soon will be, they claim dumping...

 

[cannabineer]

And yet it does not jive with what manufacturers are seeing. Do you think the "solar pundits" might be off?

like you pointed out, costs ≠ prices

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

like you pointed out, costs ≠ prices

One has to look at overall trends, there will be massive solar panel deployments globally over the next few years, that much is obvious. The panels have to come from somewhere and there are reports of recent and future price drops. Except for North American and perhaps the EU the world is buying Chinese panels from a few dominate players who have large market shares. It is a time of disruption and years before American and other solar panel makers went out of business or were bought by the Chinese, Canadian solar started in Canada is now Chinese owned and are one of the bigger players. Now the process is being repeated in low labor cost Asian production plants as automation takes even low paid and unskilled jobs in some areas. Panel production is a thing that can be highly automated. Tariffs play their part and places like India has tariffs of 100% on EVs and dunno about solar, but India is jumping in with both feet on that.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Works and charges at -30C too, but problems scaling and consistent quality. Would last for half million kilometers though!

Recent tests reveal Volkswagen’s new EV battery technology could shake up the industry: ‘These are very encouraging results’

"The final result of this development could be a battery cell that enables long ranges, can be charged super quickly, and practically does not age."

www.yahoo.com

Volkswagen’s prototype battery retained 95% of its storage capacity after over 1,000 charging cycles, per the press release. That’s equivalent to driving an EV about 311,000 miles. Industry standards aim for only 80% capacity retention at 700 cycles, Bloomberg noted.

 

[cannabineer]

One has to look at overall trends, there will be massive solar panel deployments globally over the next few years, that much is obvious. The panels have to come from somewhere and there are reports of recent and future price drops. Except for North American and perhaps the EU the world is buying Chinese panels from a few dominate players who have large market shares. It is a time of disruption and years before American and other solar panel makers went out of business or were bought by the Chinese, Canadian solar started in Canada is now Chinese owned and are one of the bigger players. Now the process is being repeated in low labor cost Asian production plants as automation takes even low paid and unskilled jobs in some areas. Panel production is a thing that can be highly automated. Tariffs play their part and places like India has tariffs of 100% on EVs and dunno about solar, but India is jumping in with both feet on that.

Overall trends are fine if they have been extracted from historic data.

If they rely to any degree on projections, then no.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Overall trends are fine if they have been extracted from historic data.

If they rely to any degree on projections, then no.

One just has to look at who has been correct on cost curves, and we apparently are not at the bottom of one yet. There is a bottom though, at least for the way they make cells now. Coming tandem cells might drop the cost per watt too by increasing efficiency. I'm no expert and I'm just going by a few industry reports and articles I've already posted here, that is aside from any Tony Seba predictions on the matter. It is a time of disruption, inside a disrupting industry. China to some extent is taking advantage of the scale of its domestic market as America once did to lower the cost of manufactured goods and agricultural products with automation and out competed many places on price.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Overall trends are fine if they have been extracted from historic data.

If they rely to any degree on projections, then no.

Solar, batteries and rare earths are now strategic things that impact energy security, and you know how important energy security is to America and everybody else. Geopolitics are being mixed with markets and emerging technologies; it is what disruption looks like. The care, attention and military might Uncle Sam lavished on protecting oil supplies will shift to this. Prices and costs are lost in the fog of economic war.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Geography 2050: The Future of Food, an Appetizer, with Jamie Arbib, Co-Founder of RethinkX

Sep 30, 2022
American Geographical Society Councilor Dean Wise speaks to Jamie Arbib, Co-Founder of RethinkX, to get a preview of Jamie's presentation for our 2022 Fall Symposium: Geography 2050: The Future of Food

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Solid State Battery Factories Are Ready To Roll

A massive headache is in store for fossil energy stakeholders as the solid state battery of the future begins rolling off the assembly line.

cleantechnica.com

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-chinese-ev-firms-will-demolish-rivals-without-trade-barriers-2024-01-25/

Tesla CEO Musk: Chinese EV firms will 'demolish' rivals without trade barriers

 

[cannabineer]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-chinese-ev-firms-will-demolish-rivals-without-trade-barriers-2024-01-25/

Tesla CEO Musk: Chinese EV firms will 'demolish' my fat margins without trade barriers

It was all well&good as long as massive Chinese content lined his pockets …

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Let's see how RethinkX is doing on the transportation as a service prediction from a few years ago.

The tech will improve over the next few years I'm sure.

What’s next for robotaxis in 2024

In addition to restoring public trust, robotaxi companies need to prove that their business models can compete with Uber and taxis.

www.technologyreview.com

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

It was all well&good as long as massive Chinese content lined his pockets …

His usefulness is over, the global EV invasion has begun, and the prices will be irresistible in most places around the globe. America and Europe got behind the power curve and can't compete on price. They depend on high levels of automation to keep costs down and have a very competitive large domestic market. It is the same for solar and perhaps soon with batteries when the west and others start producing their own.

This is national security and energy security stuff, and the world needs more than one option, especially if it is imperialistic and authoritarian. You don't want either Russia or China to have you by the balls, they will squeeze them eventually.