Just as an aside, I was not trying to relate this article to myself personally, but rather presented it as evidence of the deterioration of the Dems voter base. I think trying to categorize independents in any particularly political group or lean is a sure bet at inaccuracy. We’re all over the place and I lean left pretty hard. Bill Clinton opened my eyes to the fact that Dems have no moral superiority.
Absolutely, by definition, "independent" means the person doesn't support the established political parties. However, analysis of independent voters do show tendencies. This doesn't apply to all but does help us understand what is happening when, say, George W wins an election by what was it? 12 votes in Florida? Elections are strongly affected by the sentiment of independent voters. As you say, there are plenty of differences in that grouping. Some are Bernie Sanders progressives who can't stand the more wishy washy "leans left of center" Democrats. Some are Black voters who don't see either party as being on their side.
But looking at voting patterns, a large chunk of independent voters are conservative-leaning who support the status quo. The majority of independents voted for Bill Clinton, then George W, then Obama, then Trump, then Biden and seem to be shifting back to Trump. Some voted for Nader in 2000 as a protest against having to choose between Gore and Shrub. Enough to swing that election, not that I'm blaming the Nader voter for eight years of Shrub. In 2008 there was strong support for Obama among Independents because Shrub's administration tanked our economy. After 8 years of Obama's middling bad economy, endless war, nothing to show for improving equity in this country, they took a look at Hillary and didn't just say no thank you, they said hell no. So we ended up with worse in Trump.
I did not support or vote for Biden in the 2020 primary. I voted for Elizabeth Warren, mostly because I liked her, not because I thought she was going to win it all. In fact she had already dropped out of the race. I also voted for her because I wanted her to have more delegates at the DNC that summer. I don't think either Warren or Bernie could have beaten Trump because in my opinion, there were too many conservative-minded Independent Voters who would support Trump over either of them So, Biden it was and in 2020, he beat Trump. Not because Biden was beloved but because Trump was a terrible president.
So, here we are at the 2024 election and voters will choose between Biden and Trump. Again. It seems that a lot of Independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 are shifting toward Trump in 2024. At least that's the sentiment showing up in today's polls.
That's why I found interesting the article you twigged us to about new voters coming into their age of majority and registering Independent. It shows why Biden is lagging Trump in opinion polls right now. It's a dose of reality for Democrats who simply assume young voters will choose them. Regardless of what the polls say, I still think the race is Biden's to lose but he will lose to Trump if those younger independent voters stay home on election day. So, what Biden's campaign does about that is important.
Thanks
@curious2garden for posting that link.
