To CJ in answer to your Q.
Iran has been saying that it's pursuing a nuclear program 'for peaceful purposes.' There are reasons not to believe this. With the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran stands a chance of becoming a dominant military force in the region -- the Israeli Defense Force being the only military that could match it. For all intents and purposes, the iraqi military, like Iraq itself, has become almost entirely theoretical. When people from the Bush administration talk about Iraq, they almost always talk about what will be, not what is. There is no
is in Iraq.
Other reasons to think Iran may be working toward weaponizing its nuclear program are noises made by iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about Israel. But Ahmadinejad's actually nobody. Iran has a sham democracy. Only candidates approved by the ruling clerics are allowed to run and, once elected, these people can't really initiate anything. Ahmadinejad exists to throw red meat to the crowd -- both for home consumption and regionally. He's a PR tool and a propaganda outlet. It's best to think of Ahmadinejad as the horoscope in the newspaper. He exists for entertainment purposes only.
Another reason to disbelieve in a peaceful nuclear program is that Iran has oil. Other than weapons, the only remaining applied use of nuclear technology would be generating electricity. Nations tend to use their most abundant resource to generate energy -- Iceland, for example, relies on geothermal. Because it's a land of hot springs and geysers.
So, you'd expect a nation like Iran to use oil for energy. But it turns out that they've probably already experienced peak oil. Without oil, they may see nuclear as the only way to generate enough electricity. Personally, I'd go go solar -- desert nations close to the equator would be nearly perfect in the sunshine department. But nuclear's advanced. Iran scored a lot of points at home by successfully enriching uranium. It's the shiny, big sciencey step toward being a big player in the world. To a nation that remembers the glory of Persia, it's a re-entry into the world as a power. Nuclear power is sexy and, in a country obsessed with appearances, sexy is good.
On that peak oil point:
Associated Press:
Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published Monday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.
Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.
Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Stern predicted.
Not only could nuclear answer Iran's needs, but they could sell energy regionally. For all of nuclear's downsides -- it may be the most toxic of power sources -- it generates an incredible amount of energy per unit. Iran sells energy now and it needs to stay in that market. Or thinks it does, anyway.
So Iran may be doing exactly what she
says she's doing, pursuing nuclear generating capacity. In fact, there's no reason to believe they're doing anything else.