even if the 34% of self identified californian conservatives, broke towards no on 19 by 7 to 3 (conservative guess)....let's see what would happen with the 66% of liberals and moderates...score so far: 10.2% yes, 23.8% no
27% of californians who are liberal break 4 to 1 in favor of yes (a conservative guess). 5.4% more no, 21.6% more yes. score now: 31.8% yes, 29.2% no.
39% of californians who are moderate break 11 to 9 in favor of yes (yet another conservative guess). 21.45% more yes, 17.55% more no. final score: (drumroll please).....................
53.25% yes, 46.75% no, using CONSERVATIVE estimates of california's population and a recent poll with the largest sampling size of any poll so far on prop 19.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp <--scroll down to california miscellaneous poll, it is a pdf file from which i base all my conservative estimates (meaning i think the conservatives will be out in more force this year).
if they overcome a 6.5% projected loss, i will quit my fake job of predicting political outcomes.