Anyone else celebrating a Birthday today?!

thedoc08

thedoc08

New Member
With 24,026 active members, approximately 65.8246575342 people should be having a birthday today. I hope they all make threads so I can tell them happy birthday.
 
The Cryptkeeper

The Cryptkeeper

Well-Known Member
Damn. You beat me to it. But in a funnier way. :D I was about to say over 20 million people are celebrating a birthday today. :lol:
 
Snow Crash

Snow Crash

Well-Known Member
It's actually less than that doc. The way the probability works out if you take a group of 253 people the odds are about 1 out of 2 that one of them will have the same birthday as you.

To 100% guarantee someone in a group has the same birthday then you'd need a group as large as 7800 people (though 2000 people is 99.5%). If we assume you only need 95% probability that a group of people has one person with your birthday then that's only 1090 people. On this site that is about 22 people here who will share the same birthday as you.

That's even statistics though. I'd guess that some days/months see more babies than others (9 months earlier kinda thing) and there could be more or less. I know probably 2 other people with your same birthday I went to school with.

Mine was yesterday. I left the house for all of 2 hours. While out at dinner an elderly gentleman was celebrating his birthday with his family.

When I walked into the Glass shop after dinner another dude came in at the same time. He got carded. It happened to be his 18th birthday.

I came in contact with at most, 20 people, 2 of them had my birthday and suchnsuch has his today.

Weird.
 
thedoc08

thedoc08

New Member
Snow Crash said:
It's actually less than that doc. The way the probability works out if you take a group of 253 people the odds are about 1 out of 2 that one of them will have the same birthday as you.

To 100% guarantee someone in a group has the same birthday then you'd need a group as large as 7800 people (though 2000 people is 99.5%). If we assume you only need 95% probability that a group of people has one person with your birthday then that's only 1090 people. On this site that is about 22 people here who will share the same birthday as you.

That's even statistics though. I'd guess that some days/months see more babies than others (9 months earlier kinda thing) and there could be more or less. I know probably 2 other people with your same birthday I went to school with.

Mine was yesterday. I left the house for all of 2 hours. While out at dinner an elderly gentleman was celebrating his birthday with his family.

When I walked into the Glass shop after dinner another dude came in at the same time. He got carded. It happened to be his 18th birthday.

I came in contact with at most, 20 people, 2 of them had my birthday and suchnsuch has his today.

Weird.
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I don't get your math with the first one. On the second one, you can't 100% guarantee that. The odds of it not happening are astronomical, but still higher than 0.
 
RawBudzski

RawBudzski

Well-Known Member
Ever Since I started Drinking this Tigers Blood I have been Celebrating my Birthday EveryDay!!! WiNNiNG.!!.
 
tip top toker

tip top toker

Well-Known Member
How can you 100% guarantee a probability like that? You can't, there is no law or force determining that in a group, at least 1 person WILL coincide, they can determine that someone by proability SHOULD but not WILL. It cannot be 100% guaranteed.
 
RawBudzski

RawBudzski

Well-Known Member
Too much thinking for me, But you can HAVE 10,000 ppl in a room and no1 MAY not have YOUR BIRTHDAY. but put no more than 366 ppl in 1 room and your 100% Gaurenteed that at least 2 ppl will have the same bday :) WiNNiNG
 
Snow Crash

Snow Crash

Well-Known Member
1-(364/365)^n

True, you cannot get 100%.
But, 99.999999999% is close enough for me to round it up. Barring sabotage, having no one else with the same b-day is very improbable given there are fewer than 10 billion people on the planet.
 
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