budlover13
King Tut
Don't know about ALL the states but i DO know Paul has a solid grasp on Montana and California. i would think that he would also stand decent in ANY state that has been fighting Federal power.
Ron Paul Has A Legit Shot.
- Thread starter Dan Kone
- Start date
- Status
No, lol, he's not toast.
Are you suggesting that based on what you stated that he is magically going to change his policy when he gets into the White House? Am I to believe that because of those comments, that he has been fooling us all for over 30 years on what it is he stands for? Is he going to get into the White House, continue the war on drugs, continue endless wars and foreign aid, continue to bow to the establishment? No, no uncle bucky, hes not going to do any of that. Even if he did hate a certain group of people, he would never show it when it comes time to make a decision, because Ron Paul ALWAYS supports the Constitution because thats what Ron Paul has been doing for over 30 years.
Newt wants people like me dead, and Romney is a flip flopper. Pretty cut and dry that those two are out for themselves.
Are you suggesting that based on what you stated that he is magically going to change his policy when he gets into the White House? Am I to believe that because of those comments, that he has been fooling us all for over 30 years on what it is he stands for? Is he going to get into the White House, continue the war on drugs, continue endless wars and foreign aid, continue to bow to the establishment? No, no uncle bucky, hes not going to do any of that. Even if he did hate a certain group of people, he would never show it when it comes time to make a decision, because Ron Paul ALWAYS supports the Constitution because thats what Ron Paul has been doing for over 30 years.
Newt wants people like me dead, and Romney is a flip flopper. Pretty cut and dry that those two are out for themselves.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
wanna bet $10,000 that he fades away before super tuesday?
california and montana don't happen until may. ron paul does not poll well enough nationally to even be in any consideration by then.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
you're right, ron paul would be completely ineffectual and impotent in the white house.
sorry you don't like newtmitt, that is what you guys are stuck with.
Fox News, is that you?
LOL, dude, that right there made my day. Wow, I can't believe you went there.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
the polls are excellent indicators historically.
Uh huh, and nothing like the internet, cell phones, or any of that is going to change the historical accuracy of the all mighty media polls.
IMO, the polls have only been accurate because for 60+ years people have been glued to the tv believing every damn word that they are told to believe.
Then the internet was born.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
ron paul is polling at 5% or so in florida and south carolina. he has no chance at winning NH either.
huckabee won iowa last time around, how consequential was that once mccain won NH?
did the internet and cell phones not exist in 2008? 2004?
because the polls got it dead right those times.
budlover13
King Tut
Shit! i don't have $100 to gamble with let alone $10k. Maybe that's why i've never been much of a gambler.
budlover13
King Tut
Ok. You can't eat your cake and have it too.
You have NUMEROUS times stated something to the tune of "It's only a poll. It means nothing more than that Paul supporters have flooded the polls he wins (Well, duh! He obviously had more supporters than the other candidates in the polls he won.)"
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
and by the way, ron paul does not do particularly well in california.
http://freedomslighthouse.net/2012-gop-california-polls/
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
i am talking about non-scientific polls, like the ones after debates where ron paul wins with 89% agreeing he won.
i am not talking about scientific polls.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
also found this...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-1567.html
gingrich 33, romney 25, paul 9
Sure Shot
Well-Known Member
[h=1]GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul wins California straw poll[/h]Paul won with 44.9% of the votes, Texas Gov. Rick Perry came in second with 29.3% of the votes, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in third with 8.8% of the votes.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
Dan Kone
Well-Known Member
Straw polls are completely meaningless. They are almost as bad as internet polls.
Dan Kone
Well-Known Member
That's not necessarily true. The last poll out of NH has Paul passing Gingrich. HN is still wide open. Huntsman even has a shot of winning there, not a good shot, but it's possible.
If Ron Paul can finish first in Iowa and second in NH, he'll replace Newt as Romney's chief rival and it's possible even the frontrunner. If Paul wins both states, Romney will be out of the race entirely and Ron Paul will be the clear favorite to win the election, only having Newt to contend with.
When a candidate is polling near 20% with a month to go in a state, he's not out of it at all. That's winnable. If he wins Iowa, and it looks like he will, that will give him a bump in New Hampshire.
Dan Kone
Well-Known Member
Yes he can. He's right about that.
A straw poll where candidates pay bribes to acquire votes and internet polling where only people who come to the site to vote are counted are measurements of absolutely nothing. They are entirely meaningless.
Scientific polling is relatively accurate when it comes to voter trends. Who ever has the most momentum in scientific polling going into an election usually wins. Even if a candidate polls in second place, but he has more momentum than the guy in first place, the guy with the momentum usually wins.
The only thing you have to be careful of in scientific polling is the number of "undecided/not sure" voters. The lower the number of undecideds, the more accurate. Usually those undecided voters for the most part go to the guy with the most momentum on election day.
Most of the republican polling out has more than 50% of republican voters as undecided. That makes them extremely unreliable measures by themselves, but you can still measure how much a candidate is rising or falling and that is pretty accurate.
Sure Shot
Well-Known Member
That's music to this President Paul fan's ears!!
But, no matter how many times you write scientific, it doesn't change the fact that it fails in today's reality.straw polls are purchased. they are not scientific.
keep dreaming.
It's the age of cellphones, and the polls you reference come from landlines during work hours!
I can't remember the last time I seen one of those, honestly.
Here's a few words from some people who know a thing or two about polling;
"I think Paul probably under-polls," said Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll. "His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds."
Iowa State’s James McCormick, coordinator of the poll, said that while Paul’s lead is small, it may be more solid than it seems.
“What our poll says is that 51 percent of Paul’s supporters say they’re definitely backing him,” said McCormick. “The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents ‘leaning to’ or ‘still undecided’ in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, I’m going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates.”
"Because we surveyed the same likely caucus goers in November [data collected between Nov. 1 and 13], these results do indicate some movement to strengthening the commitment to a particular candidate," McCormick said. "In November, only 16.5 percent indicated that they had definitely committed to a candidate."
WOO HOO!!
- Status