Post predictions here
- Thread starter UncleBuck
- Start date
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
i think bachmann wil bow out after placing poorly in iowa since she has no chance in later states and santorum/perry seem to have some momentum.
i am going to go out there and say paul, santorum, and perry will all place ahead of romney in iowa. it normally breaks to social conservatives, and 40% of those recently polled said they may still switch.
with romney weakened by a poor showing in iowa after building up expectations, the moderate altrnative, huntsman, will place very well in NH. a strong second to romney's first. paul in a close third.
at this point, we go into SC and florida. huntsman has laid the groundwork in florida. he may be able to put up a fight. paul's numbers look weak there and in subsequent states.
in any case, it will be interesting.
i have a feeling romney may be doing himself a disservice by building up expectations in iowa, and that this may be a late christmas gift to huntsman, who stands to benefit mightily from a romney disappointment in iowa.
Dan Kone
Well-Known Member
My prediction for Iowa tomorrow in order:
Paul wins
Santorum second, but only by a very tiny margin. Could easily flip Paul/Santorum here
Romney 3rd place, not close
Newt 4th place, not close to Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Hunstman
Bachmann drops out sometime between now and Florida. Huntsman will stick with it all the way. He's just running to get his name out there so he can make a real run at it in 2016. Perry will stick with it until most of the south has voted, then turn over his deligates in exchange for some backroom power in the republican party.
This will kill off Newt. He's counting on making his stand in South Carolina, but if he finishes 4th in Iowa, he's done. All his southern supporters will jump to Santorum. By the time it gets to super tuesday it'll be Romney Vs Santorum Vs Paul. IMO, Santorum wins that fight because he's got the least dirt on him.
Paul's strategy seems to be to focus on caucus and open primary states. It could work. He could take those states, but that isn't a strategy to win the election, it's a strategy to play kingmaker at the convention. In that respect, he could be successful.
I'm not sure Romney has a real shot at winning this really. He's a paper tiger IMO. People just don't like him no matter how hard he tries. Eventually he's got to convince some people to actually like him or he's not going to make it. There seems to be too many "anyone but Romney" voters out there. Once the field dwindles down to 2-3 candidates, Romney is in real trouble. If someone like Santorum can convince people he has a reasonable chance at beating Obama, it's game over. Right now the only reason he's polling on top is because people think he is the best shot at beating Obama and the "anyone but Romney" voters are split between several candidates. When the field thins out a bit, if some other candidate can make a strong case for being able to beat Obama, Romney will be out of this.
Santorum wins the nomination IMO. Every other candidate has fatal flaws. Although maybe Santorum has some unexposed weaknesses too. If some fatal flaw is exposed, Paul or Romney become the favorites.
Paul wins
Santorum second, but only by a very tiny margin. Could easily flip Paul/Santorum here
Romney 3rd place, not close
Newt 4th place, not close to Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Hunstman
Bachmann drops out sometime between now and Florida. Huntsman will stick with it all the way. He's just running to get his name out there so he can make a real run at it in 2016. Perry will stick with it until most of the south has voted, then turn over his deligates in exchange for some backroom power in the republican party.
This will kill off Newt. He's counting on making his stand in South Carolina, but if he finishes 4th in Iowa, he's done. All his southern supporters will jump to Santorum. By the time it gets to super tuesday it'll be Romney Vs Santorum Vs Paul. IMO, Santorum wins that fight because he's got the least dirt on him.
Paul's strategy seems to be to focus on caucus and open primary states. It could work. He could take those states, but that isn't a strategy to win the election, it's a strategy to play kingmaker at the convention. In that respect, he could be successful.
I'm not sure Romney has a real shot at winning this really. He's a paper tiger IMO. People just don't like him no matter how hard he tries. Eventually he's got to convince some people to actually like him or he's not going to make it. There seems to be too many "anyone but Romney" voters out there. Once the field dwindles down to 2-3 candidates, Romney is in real trouble. If someone like Santorum can convince people he has a reasonable chance at beating Obama, it's game over. Right now the only reason he's polling on top is because people think he is the best shot at beating Obama and the "anyone but Romney" voters are split between several candidates. When the field thins out a bit, if some other candidate can make a strong case for being able to beat Obama, Romney will be out of this.
Santorum wins the nomination IMO. Every other candidate has fatal flaws. Although maybe Santorum has some unexposed weaknesses too. If some fatal flaw is exposed, Paul or Romney become the favorites.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
excellent analysis.
my day of predictions:
santorum wins
paul second
perry a surprise third
romney fourth, barely
newt fifth
bachmann
huntsman
can't wait to get drunk and watch the results roll in.
fishwhistle
Active Member
Only time will tell but iowa really doesnt matter anyways as theirs very few electoral votes to be had there,I personally wish ron paul the best as the rest dems and republicans alike just seem to be more of the same old same old.We need some new ideas and the old guy seems to be the only one with any sack right now!
Carne Seca
Well-Known Member
I'm going to say Romney will be top dog.
Zaehet Strife
Well-Known Member
its already been decided you fools!
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
RyanTheRhino
Well-Known Member
anyone feel that (Rick Perry = George Bush 2.0)
Dan Kone
Well-Known Member
Yes, except Perry is dumber (if that's possible)
Early results so far have it as a dead tie between Paul and Romney.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
lol. that's what the paulbots will point out, and then they'll allege a huge conspiracy.
paulbots.....ugh.
RyanTheRhino
Well-Known Member
go look under" ron paul has a legit shot " thread if you want the real entrance poll numbers
re posting here uncle buck would say is spam
re posting here uncle buck would say is spam
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
you can post them here, it is the prediction thread after all.
i don't mind polls and whatnot, it is the endless current of worshippers posting youtube vid after youtube vid and mindlessly typing "paul 2012" that get to me.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
only 27% in and only 200 votes behind. the way i see it, we are looking at a three way tie for first. they can all proclaim victory more or less.
looks like i was dead wrong about a break towards perry and away from romney. darn.
RyanTheRhino
Well-Known Member
Right it is only 1/3 done so who knows watch newt win lolz
