"The Science is settled", and other fairy tales

[cannabineer]

Those two graphs point out some interesting things.

Note how noisy the data in the first chart get before 1800, which shows how little direct-measurement information we reliably hold.

Note the long timeline and single location for the indirect measurement in the second graph.

What's missing (and i have no proposal for providing/generating it) is a chart showing temps at other locations and at an intermediate timescale, say 20 ky. cn

 

[Doer]

Charts that in the Little Ice Age can't be used to prove the temperature is dramatically higher than it should be due to the human race.

See that... OMG, it gets hot and cold all the time..

Good points. Do have the reference for the Antarctica data?

We know we are coming out of a very recent and very cold spot right where we live. And guess where are the easiest glaciers to study? Right where we are in the North Atlantic region.

The little Ice Age is well documented and so I hope we are heating up from that. Great point. Thanks.

 

[Doer]

Those two graphs point out some interesting things.

Note how noisy the data in the first chart get before 1800, which shows how little direct-measurement information we reliably hold.

Note the long timeline and single location for the indirect measurement in the second graph.

What's missing (and i have no proposal for providing/generating it) is a chart showing temps at other locations and at an intermediate timescale, say 20 ky. cn

Hmmmm....20 ky is about the 1/2 cycle for the Ice Ages isn't it? Polar precession 23 ky, yes? And the earth's perihelion precession cycle is 20.088 ky. 1 day every 58 years....Oh, an average life time. Fancy that. So, of course there is climate change. It changes constantly and the season precess 1 full day in our lifetime. That is constantly unsettling the giga (and bigga) Kwh our planet deals with. We are nothing compared to this.

So, maybe we will have the only remaining polar bear, just here in our forum, but, that is very natural, I think.

So, the Cloud scientists are persuing the idea that we should have enough data now to extrapolate the entire ~20 ky cycles. Then we can see if these 3 cycles, orbit and polar processions plus what we know of the Ice Age cycles, is a stable, cyclical system. It surely has it's convergences and divergences. The greenhouse days to the global ice cap, but, is it stable? Or are we doomed like Venus when the sun heats up enough. Right now ole Sol is pulsing, (and there is surely some 20 ky pulsing) as an M-class star.

So, don't we have 20 ky cycles to look to, but we perhaps are in a rush to judgment?

 

[Carthoris]

Good points. Do have the reference for the Antarctica data?

We know we are coming out of a very recent and very cold spot right where we live. And guess where are the easiest glaciers to study? Right where we are in the North Atlantic region.

The little Ice Age is well documented and so I hope we are heating up from that. Great point. Thanks.

We are currently still in an ice age until the last of the glaciers melt. Global warming is a fact, and just like every other ice age, we are warming up rapidly. However, we are currently in an interglacial period. It is entirely possible that the ice age could be ending or that another glacial period is only weeks away. I almost hope for a ice age just so we can beat Al Gore with a bat.

 

[cannabineer]

Hmmmm....20 ky is about the 1/2 cycle for the Ice Ages isn't it? Polar precession 23 ky, yes? And the earth's perihelion precession cycle is 20.088 ky. 1 day every 58 years....Oh, an average life time. Fancy that. So, of course there is climate change. It changes constantly and the season precess 1 full day in our lifetime. That is constantly unsettling the giga (and bigga) Kwh our planet deals with. We are nothing compared to this.

So, maybe we will have the only remaining polar bear, just here in our forum, but, that is very natural, I think.

So, the Cloud scientists are persuing the idea that we should have enough data now to extrapolate the entire ~20 ky cycles. Then we can see if these 3 cycles, orbit and polar processions plus what we know of the Ice Age cycles, is a stable, cyclical system. It surely has it's convergences and divergences. The greenhouse days to the global ice cap, but, is it stable? Or are we doomed like Venus when the sun heats up enough. Right now ole Sol is pulsing, (and there is surely some 20 ky pulsing) as an M-class star.

So, don't we have 20 ky cycles to look to, but we perhaps are in a rush to judgment?

I wasn't really thinking about solar cycles and the various orbital periodicities. Their contribution to global temperature and climate is bound to be nonzero, but the cleanliness of Milankovich simulations v. the noise in that Antarctic dataset suggest that the correlation is imperfect.

I chose 20ky because it was a compromise between the logarithmic midpoint , appx. 10 thousand years, and the timescale of the ice ages. The last one broke in the time between 16 and 13 millennia ago.

The sun's spectral class is G2 V and not M. It's believed that as it reaches the end of the main sequence, it'll swell and go orange and pulsate like the Mira class of long-period variables. More important imo is the sun's slowly growing luminance as it ages along the main sequence. The combination of water and CO2 in the air worked together with the geo-and hydrochemistry of rock weathering (carbonate release and sequestration) to act as a thermal buffer. We're quite low in pCO2 now compared to the planet's earlier history, and some planetary scientists think that in a few hundred million years, the homeostasis will fail and the planet will go hot and dry. Not as spectacularly as Venus, but still. cn

 

[Doer]

<palm slap> G2 I knew that! I had it backward, steady increasing now in the main sequence, until it runs out of core hydrogen.

 

[UncleBuck]

The funniest thing is as an over privileged white boy, he assumes he know's all about disadvantaged minorities and their plight but could not be be further from one. Yet how many "hand outs" is he handing out to rectify those abhorrent injustices?

privileged?

i grew up not poor, but pretty close to it. i started working when i was 15, graduated high school while working two jobs, one of them a night audit, and worked my way through college.

not exactly a life of privilege.

you seemed a little soused last night when you wrote this though, so whatever.

 

[UncleBuck]

Good points. Do have the reference for the Antarctica data?

We know we are coming out of a very recent and very cold spot right where we live. And guess where are the easiest glaciers to study? Right where we are in the North Atlantic region.

The little Ice Age is well documented and so I hope we are heating up from that. Great point. Thanks.

you should make sure all these climatologists with doctorate degrees know about this thing called "history".

they might revise their findings and totally vindicate you.

just kidding, you weren't even aware of FDR's stay in office. LOL!

 

[Doer]

What the fuck is an FDR? Some cloud conference? Oh, right, it was a fraud of similar proportions.

 

[RyanTheRhino]

Those two graphs point out some interesting things.

Note how noisy the data in the first chart get before 1800, which shows how little direct-measurement information we reliably hold.

Note the long timeline and single location for the indirect measurement in the second graph.

What's missing (and i have no proposal for providing/generating it) is a chart showing temps at other locations and at an intermediate timescale, say 20 ky. cn

It looks like they started extrapolating backward in the 1960's. extrapolation is inherently flawed because the error is magnified at each iteration. They estimated back 200 years the error would be so large

 

[newworldicon]

Show us those figures Desert dude.

Academics Lianne M. Lefsrud of the University of Alberta and Renate E. Meyer of Vienna University of Economics and Business, and the Copenhagen Business School, came upon that number through a survey of 1,077 professional engineers and geoscientists

​

The volcano argument has been soundly proven false in these threads several times now............. really I had no idea rollitup was so scientific..

 

[cannabineer]

Academics Lianne M. Lefsrud of the University of Alberta and Renate E. Meyer of Vienna University of Economics and Business, and the Copenhagen Business School, came upon that number through a survey of 1,077 professional engineers and geoscientists

​

The volcano argument has been soundly proven false in these threads several times now............. really I had no idea rollitup was so scientific..

4 out of 5 scientists recommend weed. cn

 

[Doer]

Academics Lianne M. Lefsrud of the University of Alberta and Renate E. Meyer of Vienna University of Economics and Business, and the Copenhagen Business School, came upon that number through a survey of 1,077 professional engineers and geoscientists

​

The volcano argument has been soundly proven false in these threads several times now............. really I had no idea rollitup was so scientific..

It's infected the Science section and now it's come here.

 

[Doer]

4 out of 5 scientists recommend weed. cn

And why is it we don't drug test in High Tech? And how were the founders able to created and codify such soaring concepts of Freedom? Sooooook two jooooints.

(is the word Peace even in the Constitution?)

 

[cannabineer]

And why is it we don't drug test in High Tech? And how were the founders able to created and codify such soaring concepts of Freedom? Sooooook two jooooints.

(is the word Peace even in the Constitution?)

Believe me ... we test drugs all the time in High Tech. Some of us are still committed to quality. cn

 

[Doer]

Yes, we drug test. All day every day. I finally figured out, this was the deal with Altoids.

So, I too, am never without.

We just don't test for the presence of drugs in our Company. It is seriously recognized we would have no Company, after that.

 

[cannabineer]

Altoids is Latin for "kinda high". cn

 

[Doer]

Ah, Latin, huh? I'll keep that one. Thank you very much.