Bitcoins? What is up with this for an investment?
- Thread starter nitro harley
- Start date
tip top toker
Well-Known Member
Yeah, just read that story the other day. He must be fuming. £4million+ i think it was.
nitro harley
Well-Known Member
I read that story too..What a gut bomb..
tip top toker
Well-Known Member
The article I read said it was with pennies when he binned it. I'd certainly be out looking!
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
With all due respect, I disagree with a lot of this. First, why would you wait until $1000 to buy if you believe in Bitcoin? Kind of arbitrary since there are so many other factors in play. Just one example, if the dollar were to plummet, $1000 might represent a Bitcoin that has actually dropped in value. I understand what you are saying in regard to resistance levels, but I am not sure those rules apply to a nebulous product such as Bitcoin.
Why is it so important that a limited number exist? Stagnant money supply is not a healthy thing. Back when the dollar was based on hard metals, the US economy followed boom and bust periods depending on how much new metals were mined and discovered. Why is that good? Money supply is a representation of the value created by an economy - a summation of human efforts. As an economy's capabilities and productivity increases, shouldn't the money supply?
And hyperinflation. A state of Hyperinflation has a lot in common with a Zombie Apocalypse. Do you really think somebody will take a Bitcoin in exchange for goods in a post Z-A world. I would rather take a pack of seeds. gold, guns, food, silver, Pl, Pa would all store value better. I only collect seeds myself.
SEC approval? Not likely. The very untraceability of Bitcoin is exactly what would preclude that.
Not trying to pick a fight, just an honest disagreement. I like the idea and have not written it off.
Because the $1k level is a psychological verification of its legitimacy, IMO. As for the rules, if it is tradable, and people are doing the trading, the game is the same as it ever was.
As bitcoins becomes more commonly used, there will be more people holding them at any given time. If the supply is limited, it follows that the price must go up. The boom and bust periods of the past were not caused by metal supplies. They were caused by rampant speculation fueled by easy credit (sound familiar? it should, because some things never change). Fiat money is an arbitrary concept partially controlled by the government and subject to political whim.
Not sure what a "Zombie Apocalypse" is. What country has experienced one of those? Plenty of countries have experienced hyperinflation and life went on. Life during hyperinflation requires a different way of living and doing business. I see no reason why bitcoins wouldn't act as a store of value in such times.
If a fund owned bitcoins, what would be untraceable about it? Do gold coins have serial numbers? How about barrels of oil? Bushels of wheat?
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Is this based on history? No. And without the history showing support and resistance - it means nothing. Just a number. The thinness of this market can be manipulated to high hell. Speculate all you want but you cannot pretent this market follows rational economic rules.
'If' bitcoins become more commonly used, i think you mean. I'll concede the point about limited supply + increasing demand = higher price. But that wasn't my question. Besides, what is the point of supply and demand analysis on a commodity that one cannot easily and reliably convert to money? There's not near enough volume or liquidity in this market to treat it that way. Come on, just the fact that you have to go to China to buy them should tell you something. As far as the boom and bust periods of the past, there have been many reasons. But to ignore the historical fact that metal based monetary supply is subject to the supply of metal is just silly.
And in those countries were Bitcoins used to hedge? No. If they could, they used a foreign currency or goods for protection. And it would be a whole different thing if a major economy experienced it.
Can a 16 year old Romanian hacker make off with half the world's supply of any of those? No. But it can and probably will happen with Bitcoins. I see that as a problem and so does the SEC. You may get an etf with Bitcoins. Why not, there's one for every other dodgy instrument. But 'investing' in it would be purely speculation.
Treat them as a novelty at best for now.
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Now I'm gonna smoke a bowl. I regret not doing that first.
hindsight hay lol i was spending coins when they where 2-3 pounds a coin i said to a friend they would rise and we should buy a shitload to sit on, but off course it never happened lol when i look back at the old intersango account n see hundreds of coins brought at such a low price it dus make a little upset with myself but hay ho shit happens and good luck to anyone who has made good money from coins.....
Never said it follows "rational economic rules". It is following speculative economic rules, if you will. There is a very long history of speculation, and the rules don't change with the instrument.
If? Have you looked at the price action in bitcoins at all? As for the major booms and busts of the past, it is a common fallacy to associate them with metal supplies and this resulted in epic political battles. Deflation follows major busts, and the ignorant start crying about a lack of money supply. And that is the bullshit that is put in the history books.
Bitcoins are a new invention, right? They didn't exist at the time of the major hyperinflations over the last hundred years or so. And major economy? Germany is and was a major economy. It is a few years out, but you will see it here for the very simple reason that the US political structure will find it every bit as irresistible as did every other idiot government that experienced it.
Does the Romanian hacker possess a quantum computer? No, because they do not exist. Therefore, he will not be able to hack so much as a single bitcoin. You are merely reiterating a popular misconception here. As for investing, the vast majority of current "investments" are nothing but leveraged speculation. "Investors" aren't piling into stocks because of the dividends.
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Not trying to pee in your soup. If you wanna have fun with 'em, knock yourself out. But don't be surprised if the value of a Bitcoin in ten years is zero. I think we might differ substantially on the meaning of investment. I find myself having this disagreement more and more. Not too unusual in a country where a large number of us have been convinced to day trade by a baby on a commercial. The markets will always have their fodder.
And you don't have to hack the bitcoin, just the computer where it is.
Kind of regretting starting this conversation on this forum. Seems like the wrong place. Now if I could put seeds in my IRA....
And you don't have to hack the bitcoin, just the computer where it is.
Kind of regretting starting this conversation on this forum. Seems like the wrong place. Now if I could put seeds in my IRA....
You won't pee in my soup as I do not own a single bitcoin. If there were a bitcoin futures contract, then I would be trading them. Also, I don't think anybody started daytrading because of a commercial; they started daytrading because they thought it would be easy money, and subsequently learned that there is no such thing on this sordid earth.
It's a good thing you can't put seeds in your IRA...because tax sheltered accounts will eventually be nationalized. But that's a whole 'nother topic.
Almost 2 years ago I bought some bitcoins because I thought they might be interesting, I paid a bit over $50 for them. Still have all of them. I don't really care if they tank to zero or go up to $2,000. I might sell half if they hit $2k, but will probably hang onto the other half for a while longer. Since 2030 isn't that far away and I might live long enough to see the last bitcoin get mined. Then the value will probably go higher if its still around.
One thing about the "Wallets" you need to use to do BTC transactions is the amount of processor power it uses and how much traffic is going through your connection as your wallet verifies transactions. Its kind of a pain.
China is HUGE into Bitcoin, about 50% more volume in dollars going in than USA.
A site called Fiatleak.com would show the transactions, but the site is down or something.
One thing about the "Wallets" you need to use to do BTC transactions is the amount of processor power it uses and how much traffic is going through your connection as your wallet verifies transactions. Its kind of a pain.
China is HUGE into Bitcoin, about 50% more volume in dollars going in than USA.
A site called Fiatleak.com would show the transactions, but the site is down or something.
nevyn
Member
Haven't been through the whole thread yet but this is a fallacy, everything is crackable, just depends how motivated you are. I am personally very very uncomfortable with bitcoins, there is something very fishy about his new form of currency. Anyway back to reading the thread.
Motivation has nothing whatsoever to do with "crackability". The level of computing power required to "crack" bitcoins is not currently extant nor is there any reason to believe it will be invented in the future. The technological advances of the last century have conditioned people to expect endless computational advancement where in reality these advancements are incremental and nothing even close to a usable quantum computer is in the pipeline. "Quantum" is little more than a buzzword used to achieve funding of various experimental projects.
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
China is also huge in state sponsored hacking battalions. Not that there is necessarily a connection.
Considering your prior commentary, there is no reason to assume that you would have bought bitcoins at a "top", "bottom", or any other position. So what is the point of your comment? Stroking your ego with a little Germanic schadenfreude? Ironic, as the real Balzac did a fine send-up of the stereotypical Prussian, most memorably in Le Père Goriot. (Having worked with them for 20 odd years, I can attest that his insights were spot on.)