On The Road To Zimbabwe?

[echelon1k1]

every time I hear "super soldier" I think of this dude...

 

[ChesusRice]

 

[heckler73]

This is so ridiculous.
The original $1Tn coin was first proposed by an MMT'er by the name of "Beowulf" almost two years ago as a demonstrative stunt that the Modern Monetary system is not constrained by debt issuance.

The article itself is written by a Neo-classical hyperinflationista who doesn't understand the fault of QTM (i.e. MV=PQ in its most rudimentary form which is generally used in the "story" of inflation from public spending).
He equally fails to comprehend the GBC's "limitless" time component which allows for the constant rolling over of public debt and the fact "bonds" are merely a sink for private savings (as well as a place for foreign gov'ts to drop their excess reserves into a fixed asset), not a source which comes from (public) spending.
There is also an omission of the fact QE has done nothing in regards to inflation or dollar destruction, rather the money just sits in reserve accounts idling. Banks do not need reserves to issue loans since they have the power of double-entry book-keeping and can seek reserves ex post.
And if the money isn't flowing, then...

In essence, it's all hyperbolic fearmongering but I'm not sure what Kotlikoff is trying to sell...maybe the idiot was short bonds at the time hoping for the imaginary "vigilantes" to swoop in and help him recover his losses.
AND it's nearly a year old. Where's the fucking hyperinflation, asshat?

ohhh but it's coming... maybe not this year, or the next 10 years, or the next 100, but it's coming...
Fuck off!!!
Throw this shit into the same "broken-clock" pile as Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and the rest of the nescient loons who are out to rip-off grandma.
Zimbabwe

MMT Primer:
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/p/modern-monetary-theory-primer.html

Specific discussion on Bonds:
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2011/10/mmp-blog-22-reserves-governement-bond.html

And here's Kotlikoff spewing BS about the fiscal cliff from a year and a half ago (remember all the doomers back then?):
[video=youtube;DNeEaN2H2bE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNeEaN2H2bE[/video]
How the hell is this guy still allowed to teach in Boston?
It just goes to show how stupid the orthodox "religion" has become in its blind adherence to failed dogma...it's ivory-tower clowns like this who truly put the dismal into the dismal science.

 

[Dr Kynes]

every time I hear "super soldier" I think of this dude...

View attachment 2917835

Well he is the hero of canton, the man they call Jayne...

 

[NoDrama]

I'm not sure what Kotlikoff is trying to sell...maybe the idiot was short bonds at the time hoping for the imaginary "vigilantes" to swoop in and help him recover his losses.

If he was short US Treasuries he did VERY well. Very well indeed.

 

[heckler73]

If he was short US Treasuries he did VERY well. Very well indeed.

Please...tell me more.



Either there is a "short-term" caveat on your statement, or you don't trade at all.

Then there are the "short" ETNs/ETFs which are how most people try to play that angle


Are you one of those "Gold $5000" people?

 

[Dr Kynes]

Please...tell me more.

View attachment 2918284

Either there is a "short-term" caveat on your statement, or you don't trade at all.

Then there are the "short" ETNs/ETFs which are how most people try to play that angle
View attachment 2918288

Are you one of those "Gold $5000" people?

thems some pretty complex graphs and charts ya got there.

top graph demonstrates that Treausry bonds are slumped from their peak, and slowly creeping out of the basement, so a short position doesnt hold up well now, but 8 months ago it was a pretty good gamble and would have paid out well.

bottom graph... not sure what that "investment" is, but it looks like a stinker.

i must confess i dont invest no more.
but then i invested by buying a piece of a company i thought had a good business model, and a sound financial position, and held it for the dividends.

when it turned sour i sold it off for a moderate profit.

i guess im so old fashioned, i shit powdered wigs.

 

[heckler73]

thems some pretty complex graphs and charts ya got there.

top graph demonstrates that Treasury bonds are slumped from their peak, and slowly creeping out of the basement, so a short position doesn't hold up well now, but 8 months ago it was a pretty good gamble and would have paid out well.

bottom graph... not sure what that "investment" is, but it looks like a stinker.

If you think those are complex, you should see the basic types of indicators I use (Ichimoku clouds are my fave). Then there are quants who use bizarre algorithms, but they're mostly in the high-frequency category. The only way to play them is to observe patterns and compile data, hoping to figure out some basic regression that generally lasts 24-48hrs, at best. To which, there was a story out of Norway IIRC where two guys were charged for doing exactly that! Talk about hypocritical BS!
Personally, I wish the markets would introduce at least a 1/2 second order delay to bring the human element back into it all. Some of my trading buddies have been "warned" by the CDN securities regulators for "flashing" orders, but the big boys don't even get a phone call. There's so much crooked shit going on it's mind-boggling.
But I digress...

You got the top one correct. Going short the 10yr (or even the longer maturity bonds) would have paid something (I wouldn't call that "well") if you got in sometime in May. But that's it...One would have made more by going long on an index (except perhaps on Ventures) over the same timescale.
Kotlikoff and the "other doomers" have been playing this angle for YEARS, and they've been taken to the cleaners if they were really putting their money where their mouths were.

The bottom chart is the "ultra short" ETF/N for "home gamers" who can't muck around with bond markets proper. It is a vehicle that has done miserably thanks to the leverage factor.

 

[Dr Kynes]

If you think those are complex, you should see the basic types of indicators I use (Ichimoku clouds are my fave). Then there are quants who use bizarre algorithms, but they're mostly in the high-frequency category. The only way to play them is to observe patterns and compile data, hoping to figure out some basic regression that generally lasts 24-48hrs, at best. To which, there was a story out of Norway IIRC where two guys were charged for doing exactly that! Talk about hypocritical BS!
Personally, I wish the markets would introduce at least a 1/2 second order delay to bring the human element back into it all. Some of my trading buddies have been "warned" by the CDN securities regulators for "flashing" orders, but the big boys don't even get a phone call. There's so much crooked shit going on it's mind-boggling.
But I digress...

You got the top one correct. Going short the 10yr (or even the longer maturity bonds) would have paid something (I wouldn't call that "well") if you got in sometime in May. But that's it...One would have made more by going long on an index (except perhaps on Ventures) over the same timescale.
Kotlikoff and the "other doomers" have been playing this angle for YEARS, and they've been taken to the cleaners if they were really putting their money where their mouths were.

The bottom chart is the "ultra short" ETF/N for "home gamers" who can't muck around with bond markets proper. It is a vehicle that has done miserably thanks to the leverage factor.

my financial advisor says "Buy WalMart and Sell Apple"

 

[NoDrama]

If he was short US Treasuries he did VERY well. Very well indeed.

Please...tell me more.

You got the top one correct. Going short the 10yr (or even the longer maturity bonds) would have paid something (I wouldn't call that "well") if you got in sometime in May.

Was that an attempt at a troll?

Any idea what a 40 to 1 leveraged short on the 10 year from the date of the video to yesterday would have paid on a $10,000 investment? We are talking about a difference of over 100 basis points on the interest rates since the time of the video.

Millions.

 

[heckler73]

Was that an attempt at a troll?

No...but what's coming up might be.

Any idea what a 40 to 1 leveraged short on the 10 year from the date of the video to yesterday would have paid on a $10,000 investment? We are talking about a difference of over 100 basis points on the interest rates since the time of the video.

Millions.

I take it you're the reason PIMCO took a shit on their bond strategies?

40:1 leverage implies your $10k is worth $400k (which broker are you using again who will give you that kind of margin without being an accredited investor?)

The change from 1.6% (Aug 2012) to a high of ~2.96% (let's grant you a bonus instead of today's rate) gives a difference of 136 'beeps'.

Your return upon closing the contract would be on the order of $43k excluding any annual coupon payments, which would've taken $6400 from your original $10k as a "thank you" to the broker for being so kind as to give your sorry ass $400k of 10yr treasuries at a coupon of 1.6% to play "doomsday America" with... I sure wouldn't let you screw around like that without getting paid for the anxiety! Don't forget loan interest and service fees.

And that's how you piss away margin...

Or do you have a magic unicorn calkoomalayter for figuring this stuff out that I should know about?

If you want a good stock tip, go long on STFU.
It trades on your AssCraq...


Blue Horseshoe loves Endicott Steel...there are safer ways to make bread.