strayfox gear
Well-Known Member
Took my brother and I almost 7 packs to find a male and female..
Don't know what the odds are now with Bodhi's new ssdd..
Don't know what the odds are now with Bodhi's new ssdd..
Dude, of course the more you buy, the better your chances.Mathematically your chances don't increase unless you buy very high numbers. Even if you find the butter pheno on the first bean, your chances of finding another do not increase or decrease. Law of high numbers and laws of chance see. A study would need to be made on how many butter phenos per few hundred or thousand beans grown out surface in order to calculate your odds. Only guarantee is that two packs will give you more plants.
Yeah of course the more beans the better the chances but that is to the OVERALL picture of all beans popped by everybody. Beans do not have memory, they have no idea if you struck lucky or not. So yeah the laws of probability apply totally, seeing as hedging more bets never changes the odds. What further compounds matters is that we have no idea of how many possible phenotypes from the type. So if one enjoys the game no problem, most of us love to dig, but even if you get eight butter phenos in a row it in no way changes the actual odds of you getting it in the next bean. This is why the lottery stays in business, no matter how many people play how often, the odds still look great. All I am saying is that this is what it is, if you are aiming for something rare and shooting blind, you are hedging bets. You can't set expectations against a bet, that is just setting yourself up for disappointment. Many, MANY cool phenos in those packs each worth the time... All the best to all pheno hunters I know the feeling lol... But you guys have CLONES... isn't the Butter Cut available to the public over there? Always thought it was... EDIT: yeah I just did have yo dig out an old text book lmfao, damn rusty on my math. But yeah gist of it is, the more beans get popped the higher the chance of a butt pheno popping up, but the WHERE is not really predictable and totally random seeing as the collection is all over the globe not in one pot... EDIT EDIT: spell check keeps editing it into butt pheno.Dude, of course the more you buy, the better your chances.
You're sort of confusing the rules of probability here.
Yeah, each bean offers an equal chance of finding the phenotype, but the more beans the better the chances. Even if there's no difference in chance in between each individual seed.
Wow. That is dedication. Hats off.Took my brother and I almost 7 packs to find a male and female..
Don't know what the odds are now with Bodhi's new ssdd..
Whenever you see things get out of hand here it is but a few moments before it gets sorted out. Good crew on rIU.
The more raffle tickets i buy the probability-increases that I'll win more, and even better, prizes. Does anyone disagree with that, please explain.
It's capitalism at it's finest that breeders can cash in on F1 strains under this concept by getting you to not only buy one pack, but purchase many packs of their beans. For this reason, I have some animosity towards the great pheno hunt adventure. dinking around with multiple packs of some hyped up poly-hybrid to the tune of 300$, or more, seems mildly insane, yet I've still done it on occasion.
With tons of releases, mostly all (polyhybrid) F1s, he appears to be a savvy marketing guy that is doing rather well. I'll leave it at that.You're right the probability is additive in this case
Also trust me, Bodhi is not 'cashing in' on anything. I have never seen a ssdd grow that was disappointing
I really like what I hear about Bodhi as a person, and I've had great luck with his gear so far.... so I'd love to defend him here, but you make a solid point. He releases more strains than Ben and Jerry have flavors of ice cream. It creates a lot of buzz and has to be good for the bottom line.With tons of releases, mostly all (polyhybrid) F1s, he appears to be a savvy marketing guy that is doing rather well. I'll leave it at that.
OK, so how many raffles have you won by buying more tickets, and by how much did the prize value increase?... In a raffle of lets say ten people these are great odds, and each ticket will increase those odds greatly. But lets say there are 10 ooo people in the raffle, owning two or three extra tickets does not cover all that much distance. The predictable art is for the ENTIRE raffle: x entries, y winners. Prizes a through f value total T, ticket sales minus expenses equal profit, three winners and however many losers. THE ODDS THEMSELVES for each ticket to win remains exactly the same if a fixed number are sold. If each ticket sold is a new ticket, ODDS DECREASE per ticket. If you are going to work over the odds of hitting a pheno using Pascal's Triangle things will get pretty mental. I mean you would have to break it down to possible population combinations with just one butter pheno and lump all the rest together as 'the other' pheno, germinating six beans will give you 64 possible combinations between those two groups, so that is if half the seeds are always butter pheno and the other half are always another pheno. Not taking into account for males either. So with realistic numbers working the odds on hitting a pheno is going to reveal exactly why it is going to be easy to get disappointed hunting a rare pheno from a poly hybrid.The more raffle tickets i buy the probability-increases that I'll win more, and even better, prizes. Does anyone disagree with that, please explain.
It's capitalism at it's finest that breeders can cash in on F1 strains under this concept by getting you to not only buy one pack, but purchase many packs of their beans. For this reason, I have some animosity towards the great pheno hunt adventure. dinking around with multiple packs of some hyped up poly-hybrid to the tune of 300$, or more, seems mildly insane, yet I've still done it on occasion.
I made the same point and mad hamish cried me a river. Sure bodhi is a great guy personally but as me and Abe have said, he's is certainly cashing in. Cheers.With tons of releases, mostly all (polyhybrid) F1s, he appears to be a savvy marketing guy that is doing rather well. I'll leave it at that.
Definitely not making his money at the expense of anybody else. Can't say who is making how much crown and can't say I care, all I know is with a legal weed system seems like you will cash in waaaaaaay better off bud than beans?...To say hes not cashing in would seem ludachris! What breader isnt in some way. What sets B from the rest is his kindness and his gear is almost 100% of the time great! When looking a my vast vault of B work its hard to decide cause there all great lol and hes never said a negative thing to anyone in form or other that i have seen. Hats off to bodhi
With tons of releases, mostly all (polyhybrid) F1s, he appears to be a savvy marketing guy that is doing rather well. I'll leave it at that.
If you say Bodhi is cashing in then what exactly is your idea of a breeder not "cashing in"?I made the same point and mad hamish cried me a river. Sure bodhi is a great guy personally but as me and Abe have said, he's is certainly cashing in. Cheers.