Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 28.0%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 41 26.1%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 72 45.9%

  • Total voters
    157

injinji

Well-Known Member
No strong winds here until well after dark tonight. But I was wrong about the flood part. Six inches of rain so far today. I spent half the day moving stuff from under the riverhouse. The river is coming up about half a foot per hour. I have a few more things to move, but will get back to it in the morning. I'm hoping the projected crest is wrong, or it will be real close to getting in the house.

Looks like Tally is going to just miss being side swiped by the eyewall. Still likely to be their biggest ever wind event.

Storm surge in Tampa is on high end of forecast, so most likely will be on high end nearer the eye (15-20').

5.3K lightning strikes in the last hour within eyewall.

Ryan Hall, Yall live

 

injinji

Well-Known Member
This update was an hour ago.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
 

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
This update was an hour ago.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
Batton down the doors, mate....be safe
 

injinji

Well-Known Member
All good on the Sandhill. The flood played out before it got to 19 feet. (27 was the projected crest) I did lose a redbud tree down at the riverhouse. Hard to bitch about that though.

I saw this live stream. They are doing what some of the local radio folks did after Michael. Telling where you can find ice, water, wifi and cell service. We were 13 days without power, so we listened to them everyday. Just hearing folks tell you everything is going to be alright is a big deal when you are sitting in the dark.

 

injinji

Well-Known Member
Not sure where else to put this. It is hurricane related. We just heard my wife's first cousin died in the storm. Not sure if or how high the water got at her house, but she lived one block off the bay in Punta Gorda in her mom's old house. Which had got damaged in a hurricane 15'ish years ago. She had taken the money from that and bought a big RV. But it had got old and unusable, so she was back living in her mom's old house. She was 74 and had a medical emergency during the storm and couldn't be helped until after it was too late. We just got the news in the last hour.

 

curious2garden

Well-Known Mod
Staff member
Not sure where else to put this. It is hurricane related. We just heard my wife's first cousin died in the storm. Not sure if or how high the water got at her house, but she lived one block off the bay in Punta Gorda in her mom's old house. Which had got damaged in a hurricane 15'ish years ago. She had taken the money from that and bought a big RV. But it had got old and unusable, so she was back living in her mom's old house. She was 74 and had a medical emergency during the storm and couldn't be helped until after it was too late. We just got the news in the last hour.

I'm so sorry to hear that. :hug:
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member



https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-helene-florida-storm-surge-0284042dade78e04e453ad821e6e15c3
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INDIAN ROCKS BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Aiden Bowles was stubborn, so even as Florida officials told residents of the barrier island north of St. Petersburg that Hurricane Helene’s storm surge could be deadly, the retired restaurant owner stayed put.

Caregiver Amanda Normand begged the 71-year-old widower to stay with her inland, but there had been many evacuation warnings over the years as hurricanes neared his Indian Rocks Beach home — the storm surge never got more than knee-high. As Helene and its strong winds pushed north in the Gulf of Mexico, he wasn’t worried — its eye was 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore.

“He said, ‘It’s going to be fine. I’m going to go to bed,’” Normand said of their final phone call on the night of Sept. 26.

But it wasn’t fine. In that night’s darkness, a wall of water up to 8-feet high (2.4 meters) slammed ashore on the barrier islands. It swept into homes, forcing some who had ignored the evacuation orders to climb into upper floors, attics or onto their roofs to survive. Boats got dumped in streets, and cars dumped into the water.

Screen Shot 2024-10-04 at 1.09.54 PM.png

“The water, it just came so fast,” said Dave Behringer, who rode out the storm in his home after telling his wife to flee. His neighborhood got hit with about 4 feet (1.2 meters) of water. “Even if you wanted to leave, there was no getting out.”



While the property damage was mostly unavoidable, there didn’t have to be any deaths — the National Hurricane Center issued its first storm surge warning two days before Helene arrived, telling the barrier islands’ residents they should pack up and get out. The relatively shallow waters of Florida’s Gulf Coast make it particularly vulnerable to storm surge and forecasters predicted Helene’s would hit Pinellas County hard.

“We really want people to take the warning seriously because their lives are seriously at risk,” Cody Fritz, leader of the hurricane center’s storm surge team, said, adding that warnings are never issued lightly.

Pinellas County echoed the warnings, issuing mandatory evacuation orders — but that doesn’t mean police officers force out residents. In Florida, mandatory evacuation orders simply mean that anyone who stays behind is on their own, and first responders aren’t required to risk their lives to save stragglers.

“We made our case. We told people what they needed to do, and they chose otherwise,” Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said. Still, his deputies did try to save residents, but the surge forced their boats and vehicles back.

The Tampa Bay area has been extremely lucky over the last century. Since the last major storm scored a direct hit in 1921, Tampa, St. Petersburg and their environs have grown from about 300,000 combined residents to more than 3 million today.

Tampa Bay has been in the crosshairs of many storms over the decades, but they always turn into the Florida peninsula south of the area or make a beeline north into the Panhandle.

Helene was never predicted to hit Tampa — it’s eye made landfall 180 miles (290 kilometers) north. But at more than 200-miles (320-kilometers) wide and winds whipping at nearly 140 mph (225 kph) near its core, it created surges that hit all alongthe Florida peninsula’s Gulf Coast. Most weren’t deadly, but on Pinellas’ barrier islands, the water wall came from all directions.

“It doesn’t require a storm making landfall directly on top of Tampa Bay or just to its north to cause a lot of surge problems, especially when you have a large storm like Helene,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

It will take time for the islands to return to normal. In the 90-degree (32.2 C) heat, residents spent this week piling water-logged furniture, appliances, cupboards and dry wall outside to be hauled away. Bulldozers pushed sand back onto the beach. Employees at stores and restaurants threw out what couldn’t be saved, while the owners figured out how and when they could reopen. Some might not.

Laura Rushmore, who has owned the Reds on the Boulevard bar for 20 years, might walk away. She cried as she described the damage. A cooler full of beer had been tossed on its side, the bar’s interior ruined. She isn’t sure what insurance will cover.

“It’s too much,” she said.

Then there are the deaths — the people can’t be replaced.

Frank Wright had been the outdoors type, perfect for living in Madeira Beach, a small barrier island community. But a few years ago, the 71-year-old got a degenerative autoimmune disease.

“He went from being pretty active, outside and everything, to being in a wheelchair,” his neighbor Mike Visnick said.

He thinks Wright probably believed he would be safe, given the prior warnings that didn’t pan out. But he drowned in the surge.

“It’s really sad to me how he died. He lived a good life. He loved the beach,” Visnick said.

Farther north in Honeymoon Mobile Home Park, retired hairdresser Patricia Mikos had never before tempted fate, her neighbor Georgia Marcum said. The beach community is onshore, but that area was also in the surge’s predicted path.

The 80-year-old always fled when hurricanes neared, so when Marcum left the park before the storm to care for her 95-year-old father, she was certain her friend would also leave.

But for some reason she didn’t and as the waters rose, Mikos found herself in trouble. She called a nearby friend. When he arrived, he told her, “Let’s get out of here,” according to Marcum. But when she went back into her home to get something, the water trapped her inside.

The friend “couldn’t get back in there. He’s not talking to nobody. He’s not even talking to us. I’m sure he blames himself,” Marcum said.

About 10 miles (16 kilometers) to the south in Indian Rocks Beach, two of Bowles’ neighbors, Donna Fagersten and Heather Anne Boles decided to ride out Helene in their homes as they had done with other storms.

Fagersten, 66, was four days from retiring after 35 years teaching, most recently second grade. In retirement, she would have time to watch the crime dramas she loved and spend time with her two sons, her friends and her cat.

Boles told WTVT-TV that when the water slammed ashore, she and Fagersten tried to drive away, but couldn’t. They fled into the home of Boles’ mother and rushed to the third floor.

After a bit, the storm seemed to weaken, so Fagersten decided to go home and check on her cat but got caught in the water. She couldn’t be saved. Her cat was found safe.

Earlier this week at Bowles’ wrecked home, Normand, 34, was cleaning up the mess Helene left behind. She had long worked for Bowles and his late wife, Sabrina, at the Salt Public House. They were beloved by their employees, she said.

“He was just very genuine. He was the best person I know on this earth. Just talking about it gives me goosebumps,” she said.

She became Bowles’ caregiver after his wife died two years ago and he retired. She took him to the doctor and bought his groceries. They were each other’s shoulder to cry on.

On the morning after the surge, Normand tried desperately to reach Bowles, but the bridge was blocked. She called one of his neighbors, who found his body.


“Every day I wake up thinking, ‘Was he calling for me? Was he like trying to get me or something?’” Normand said, her voice sometimes breaking. “I just hope that he wasn’t in pain.”

Her 6-year-old son considered Bowles to be a grandfather and didn’t understand what happened.

“He says to me, ‘Mommy we’re going to go get Mr. Bowles and open the doors and get all the water out,’” she said. “It just broke my heart.”
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member




https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-helene-chimney-rock-north-carolina-da802219b70161816b73b24482b50684
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CHIMNEY ROCK VILLAGE, N.C. (AP) — The stone tower that gave this place its name was nearly a half billion years in the making — heated and thrust upward from deep in the Earth, then carved and eroded by wind and water.

But in just a few minutes, nature undid most of what it has taken humans a century and a quarter to build in the North Carolina mountain town of Chimney Rock.

“It feels like I was deployed, like, overnight and woke up in ... a combat zone,” Iraq War veteran Chris Canada said as a massive twin-propped Chinook helicopter passed over his adopted hometown. “I don’t think it’s sunk in yet.”

Nearly 400 miles (644 kilometers) from where Hurricane Helene made landfall Sept. 26 along Florida’s Big Bend, the hamlet of about 140 souls on the banks of the Broad River has been all but wiped from the map.

The backs of restaurants and gift shops that boasted riverfront balconies dangle ominously in mid-air. The Hickory Nut Brewery, opened when Rutherford County went “wet” and started serving alcohol about a decade ago, collapsed on Wednesday, nearly a week after the storm.

The buildings across Main Street, while still standing, are choked with several feet of reddish-brown muck. A sign on the Chimney Sweeps souvenir shop says, “We are open during construction.”

In another section of town, the houses that weren’t swept away perch precariously near the edge of a scoured riverbank. It is where the town’s only suspected death — an elderly woman who refused entreaties to evacuate — occurred.

“Literally, this river has moved,” village administrator Stephen Duncan said as he drove an Associated Press reporter through the dust-blown wreckage of Chimney Rock Village on Wednesday. “We saw a 1,000-year event. A geological event.”

A monster wall of water strikes Chimney Rock hours after making landfall in Florida

About eight hours after Helene made landfall in Florida, Chimney Rock volunteer firefighter John Payne was responding to a possible gas leak when he noticed water spilling over US 64/74, the main road into town. It was just after 7 a.m.

“The actual hurricane hadn’t even come through and hit yet,” he said.

Payne, 32, who’s lived in this valley his entire life, aborted the call and rushed back up the hill to the fire station, which was moved to higher ground following a devastating 1996 flood. Former chief Joseph “Buck” Meliski, who worked that earlier flood, scoffed.

“There’s no way it’s hitting that early,” Payne recalled the older man saying.

But when Payne showed him a video he’d just shot — of water topping the bridge to the Hickory Nut Falls Family Campground — the former chief’s jaw dropped.

“We’re in for it, boys,” Meliski told Payne and the half dozen or so others gathered there.

Suddenly, the ground beneath them began shaking — like the temblors that sometimes rock the valley, but much stronger. By then, muddy water was seeping under the back wall of the firehouse.

Payne looked down and saw what he estimated to be a 30-foot-high (nine-meter-high) wall of water, tossing car-sized boulders as it raced toward the town. It appeared as if the wave was devouring houses, then spitting them out.

“It’s not water at that point,” Payne said. “It’s mud, this thick concrete-like material, you know what I mean? And whatever it hits, it’s taking.”

A house hit the bridge from which he’d been filming not 20 minutes earlier. The span just “imploded.” Payne later found its steel beams “bent in horseshoe shapes around boulders.”

At the firehouse, some business owners among the group began “crying hysterically,” Payne said. Others just stood in mute disbelief.

The volunteers lost communications during the storm. But when the winds finally began to quiet down around 11 a.m., Payne said, the radios began “blowing up with calls.”

Screen Shot 2024-10-06 at 8.28.22 AM.png

The pieces of what had been Chimney Rock Village were now on their way to the neighboring town of Lake Lure, which played a starring role as stand-in for a Catskills resort in the 1987 Patrick Swayze summer romance film, “Dirty Dancing.”

Tracy Stevens, 55, a bartender at the Hickory Nut, took refuge at the Lake Lure Inn, where she also worked. She watched as the detritus from Chimney Rock and beyond came pouring into the marina, tossing aside boats and thrusting the metal sections of the floating Town Center Walkway upward like the folds of a map.

“It looked like a toilet bowl flushing,” she said. “I could see cars, tops of houses. It was the craziest.”

Screen Shot 2024-10-06 at 8.29.00 AM.png

Some of the debris coalesced into a massive jam between the two bridges linking the towns — a utilitarian concrete affair carrying Memorial Highway across the Broad River, and an elegant three-arched span known as the Flowering Bridge.

After 85 years carrying traffic into Chimney Rock, the 1925 viaduct was converted into a verdant walkway festooned with more than 2,000 species of plants. Now partially collapsed, the bridge’s remains are draped in a tangled mass of vines, roots and tree branches.

Some residents see signs of hope amid almost complete destruction of their town

Canada, 43, who co-owns a stage rental and event production company, was at a Charlotte music festival when the storm hit. Returning to uniformed troops and armored personnel carriers kicking up dust in the streets awakened memories of his three combat tours in the Middle East.

“I saw the whole war and I’ve been through many hurricanes,” said Canada, an Army airborne veteran. “I’ve never seen anything like this.”

Canada and his wife, Barbie, moved here with their two daughters in October 2021 from South Carolina, in part to get away from hurricanes. Barbie had vacationed here as a child, and it was close to the Veterans Administration hospital in Asheville.

As he walked the banks of the Broad on Wednesday, Chris Canada found himself sniffing at the warm air for the telltale odor of death.

And yet, all around are signs of hope.

Payne — who climbs the rock in full gear each Sept. 11 to honor first responders who died in the Twin Towers attacks — was heartened to see members of the New York City Fire Department in his town helping with door-to-door searches.

“We’re more hard-headed than these rocks are,” said Payne, whose day job is as a site coordinator for a fast-food chain. “So, it’s going to take more than this to scare us off and run us out. It’ll be a while, but we’ll be back. Don’t count us out.”

Outside the Mountain Traders shop, someone has leaned a large wooden Sasquatch cutout against a utility pole, the words “Chimney Rock Strong” painted in bright blue.

When park employees cut their way to the top of the mountain and raised the American flag on Monday, Duncan says the people below cheered, and some wept.

“It was spectacular,” he said.

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Mayor says his little town has the spirit and determination necessary to rebuild

The flag is flying at half staff. But Mayor Peter O’Leary said it’s that spirit that will bring Chimney Rock Village back.

The town’s legacy of hospitality and entrepreneurial spirit dates back to the late 1800s, when a local family began charging visitors 25 cents for a horseback ride up the mountain, according to brief online history by village resident R. J. Wald. It soon became one of North Carolina’s first bona fide tourist attractions.

O’Leary came to town in 1990 to take a job as park manager, before it became part of the state parks system. Two years later, he and his wife opened Bubba O’Leary’s General Store, named for their yellow Labrador retriever.

“Most of these people here, if you look around, almost all of them are from somewhere else,” he said as he stood outside the firehouse, the waters of the 404-foot (123-meter) Hickory Nut Falls gushing forth from the ridge high above. “Why’d they come here? They came here and fell in love with it. It gets ahold of you. ...

“It got ahold of me.”

The 1927 portion of the general store has caved in, but O’Leary believes the larger addition built in 2009 is salvageable. Duncan, who drafted the village charter back in 1990, sees this as an opportunity to “take advantage of the new geography” and build a better town.

But for some, like innkeeper and restaurateur Nick Sottile, 35, the path forward is hard to see.

When Helene hit, Sottile and wife Kristen were vacationing in the Turks and Caicos Islands — their first break since October 2020, when they opened their Broad River Inn and Stagecoach Pizza Kitchen in what’s believed to be the village’s oldest building.

In photos taken from the street, things looked remarkably intact. But when Sottile returned home and walked around to the river side, his heart sank.

“The back of the building is, like, a whole section of it is gone,” the South Florida native said Friday. “It’s not even safe to go in there right now.”

About all that’s left of the adjacent Chimney Rock Adventure miniature golf course is the sign.

“You can’t even rebuild,” Sottile said. “Because there’s no land.”
 
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