Economics: The 180 Degree Science!

Lets re link all of these again, i think you are doing something wrong, not a single comic in all these links NOT A SINGLE ONE!!!!


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Nope no comics there. Just more evidence that what I say is true. Is there anyone who sees comics? I don't, does anyone else see comics? Or is it just you?

Here you go:

The following is taken from Federal Reserve Banking System Publications.

Question 1: Do Banks create money when making a loan? Answer: Yes: "Commercial banks, however, lend in a different way. They create new checkbook dollars and add them to a borrower's checking account. Because commercial banks create almost all new dollars, they play a special role in our financial system." "The Story of Banks," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, page 4.
TheStoryOfBanks.jpg
Question 2: Do the commercial banks create money in the form of loans? Answer: "One institution, the commercial bank, creates new money, checkbook money, when it lends producers and workers borrowing from commercial banks. The banks put this new money into circulation." "The Story of Money," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, page 4.
TheStoryOfMoney.jpg

There were some from books I did not find, and the rest were from that horrid 60's publication that I already said was bad, but doesn't prove your point.

Banks don't PRINT the money , they use CHECKBOOK money, what part of this don't you understand? When we talk about printing money we aren't really talking about running a printing press, were mostly talking about putting numbers in accounts. When you get a check direct deposited to your account a guy doesn't show up with cash and put it in the bank for you, its CHECKBOOK MONEY!!! The bank does not lend other peoples deposits, the FED has said so many many times, just read the links provided, the FED Emphatically says they CREDIT the persons account!

I thought that you have taken accounting classes. And understand the ancient practice of T-accounts.

When a bank makes a loan, it is from all of the banks available funds (which is their deposits minus the amount they have loaned out and the amount that they have to hold as a reserve). The Fed does not say that they do not lend peoples deposits unless it is someone that has worked their in the past that does not have a clue what they are talking about or they are assuming they are being taken out of context(gasp someone that is mistaken and/or taken out of context! that never happens right).

Why must someone physically move a pile of cash for the transaction to be made? I don't get this premise you keep using. If I have cash I can go to the bank and deposit it right? Now I go to a different branch of the same bank in a different area, can I not pull out that cash? Or if I have a huge check and I want the cash for it, aside from a clearing waiting period, so that the bank can verify that it is legit, do I not have the option of carrying it in cash? Of course I do.

And again you should know when you are accounting, as a company you debit cash to increase it, and credit it to decrease it, but the bank is just the opposite end because a credit for them is an increase in the account and a debit is a decrease in the accounts. Look up double entry book keeping it should all be there for you. It is just a way to make sure that the books all line up.

Oh and money isn't worth anything, its just a worthless piece of paper, it would be worth more if it hadn't been printed on. The only reason the system works is becasue people have faith in the system and have been indoctrinated to put a value on a dollar bill.

One of my friends has a Masters in business finance, the one holding a PHD is in chemistry. These aren't people who took art classes or history teachers who can't find a job.

Oh and hey just so you know Keynes came out with his theories 13 years before the great depression started, so that kinda blows your whole premise that everyone was economically stupid right out of the water. I really find it funny that you believe that economics was a dark secret art that no one understood until after the GD.

They may not be able to find the jobs they want where they want, but the jobs are out there. And with more people having the top level skills that your friends have it would mean that more businesses could rely on that skill base being there and would be more jobs available due to not having to worry if I spend all this money to open up my company will there always be a steady stream of people that I can rely on to work in it.

And that does not blow anything out of the water. If anything it is funny that you somehow think that you made a relevant point.

What happened about 13 years before the Great Depression that would cause someone to try to re-examine the economic models of the time? Maybe they were doing it due to the 1907 depression? Or maybe it was all the calls for a better banking system and economists were working hard on it. Or that global trade was starting to pick up, and there was far more data becoming available to look at. How about the simple fact that there were several economists out there working on different theories at the time.

And guess what there was stuff that Keynes got wrong, and has been dismissed over the years. Because this is not a religion, this is a science. It is methodical, nobody has a perfect system because there is not enough data constantly coming in to be able to figure out the exact system, but we are far closer than we were before the GD, the 80's and even the 90's. This is still a young science, and getting better everyday.

And eventually I am sure that what you feel has to be called Keynesian economics will one day just be a footnote in the overall economic system, like everything else the parts that are proven are kept, and the ones that are dis-proven are dropped.

If we just exchanged the words "Economics" for "Evolution" you are arguing intelligent design, and I am arguing for evolution. You would say that there is not a unified belief and that most scientists disagree on how we evolved, and I would say not really just people are examining the data differently. Check this out, from the Austrian economics (laugh) website:

The central questions of economics have concerned the greatest thinkers since ancient Greece. And today, economic thinking is broken into many schools of thought: the Keynesians, the Post Keynesians, the New-Keynesians, the Classicals, the New Classicals (or Rational Expectations School), the Monetarists, the Chicago Public Choicers, the Virginia Public Choicers, the Experimentalists, the Game Theorists, the varying branches of Supply Sideism, and on and on it goes.

The Austrian School
Also part of this mix, but in many ways apart from and above it, is the Austrian School. It is not a field within economics, but an alternative way of looking at the entire science. Whereas other schools rely primarily on idealized mathematical models of the economy, and suggest ways the government can make the world conform, Austrian theory is more realistic and thus more socially scientific.


Austrians view economics as a tool for understanding how people both cooperate and compete in the process of meeting needs, allocating resources, and discovering ways of building a prosperous social order. Austrians view entrepreneurship as a critical force in economic development, private property as essential to an efficient use of resources, and government intervention in the market process as always and everywhere destructive.


The Austrian School is in a major upswing today. In academia, this is due to a backlash against mathematization, the resurgence of verbal logic as a methodological tool, and the search for a theoretically stable tradition in the madhouse of macroeconomic theorizing.

That is retarded. Math is so horrible right.

But it sounds a lot like same argument that intelligent designers talk about:
In recent decades, however, new research and discoveries in such fields as physics, cosmology, biochemistry, genetics, and paleontology have caused a growing number of scientists and science theorists to question neo-Darwinism and propose intelligent design as the best explanation for the existence of specified complexity throughout the natural world.

Basically they are both the same, Austrian economics and Intelligent design are both belief structures mascarading as a science, that somehow "Is very much Above" what the general conclusion of the facts are. And claim the 'schools of thought' are so against eachother because they are wrong. It just gets old.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"Because of 'fractional' reserve system, banks, as a whole, can expand our money supply several times, by making loans and investments." "Commercial banks create checkbook money whenever they grant a loan, simply by adding new deposit dollars in accounts on their books in exchange for a borrower's IOU." - Federal Reserve Bank, New York[/FONT]
Notice it says a loan, so there is someone borrowing and agreeing to forfeit future wages for the loan. And it does not say that they do not use the pool of deposits at their disposal to make this loan.

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[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"The actual process of money creation takes place in commercial banks. As noted earlier, demand liabilities of commercial banks are money.."Confidence in these forms of money also seems to be tied in some way to the fact that assets exist on the books of the government and the banks equal to the amount of money outstanding, even though most of the assets themselves are no more than pieces of paper--.", P.3."Commercial banks create checkbook money whenever they grant a loan, simply by adding new deposit dollars in accounts on their books in exchange for a borrower's IOU.", p. 19. "The 12 regional reserve banks aren't government institutions, but corporations nominally 'owned' by member commercial banks.",
p. 27.- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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Can you guess what a demand liability for a bank is? Maybe you did, it is a deposit account or Demand Deposits because people can demand their money back at any point and is considered a liability for a bank. This is the money that the banks use to create the loan that a person has agreed to forfeit their future wages to pay back.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it (p15). The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled." - John Kenneth Galbraith, Money: Whence it came, where it went - 1975, p29.[/FONT]​
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Much like you are demonstrating. You seem to refuse to see the importance of the role we play as the ones taking out the loans, and that we do not need to take them out. It is a very simple thing to understand. Banks hold our money, there is so much of it that we do not usually need it all and they can use the unused portion to make loans. Simple.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is, perhaps, the most, astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banks can in fact inflate, mint, and un-mint the modern ledger-entry currency". Major L. L. B. Angus[/FONT]
Angas, Major L. L. B. (Lawrence Lee Bazley) (1937).
Yup outdated.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment, out of nothing." - Ralph M. Hawtery (Former Secretary of the British Treasury)[/FONT]

What do you think that the rest of the speech was about? And seeing as though he was born in 1879, and became a partner of Keynes, I wonder how he felt about this?

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"While economic textbooks claim that people and corporations are competing for markets and resources, I claim that in reality they are competing for money - using markets and resources to do so. Greed and fear of scarcity are being continuously created and amplified as a direct result of the kind of money we are using. For example, we can produce more than enough food to feed everybody, and there is definitely not enough work for everybody in the world, but there is clearly not enough money to pay for it all. In fact, the job of central banks is to create and maintain that currency scarcity. Money is created when banks lend it into existence When a bank provides you with a $100,000 mortgage, it creates only the principal, which you spend and which then circulates in the economy. The bank expects you to pay back $200,000 over the next 20 years, but it doesn't create the second $100,000 - the interest. Instead, the bank sends you out into the tough world to battle against everybody else to bring back the second $100,000."- Bernard Lietaer, Former Central Banker[/FONT]

I actually like this guy. And he has a point, after the banks give you the original loan from the deposits they are holding, the battle for the extra money is on the person who is paying it back. But I don't think that it is as grim as that, but it is a good take on it.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"I have never seen more senators express discontent with their jobs. ... I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices to doing something terrible and unforgivable to this wonderful country. Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. .. We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected." -John Danforth, Republican senator from Missouri, reported in the Arizona Republic of April 21, 1992 [/FONT]
A senator making a talking point about our children.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]"Most Americans have no real understanding of the operation of the international money lenders... The accounts of the Federal Reserve System have never been audited. It operates outside the control of Congress and... manipulates the credit of the United States." -Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) [/FONT]
A false statement from a senator, what a shock. The Fed is actually audited every year by a third party.
Maybe this site may help: http://www.publiceye.org/conspire/flaherty/flaherty6.html

A Brief History of Federal Reserve Audits

Since its inception in 1913 the Federal Reserve System has been subjected to a variety of financial and performance audits by Congress, the executive branch, and private accounting firms, although responsibility for this task has shifted from time to time. From 1913 to 1921 the Board of Governors, then known as the Federal Reserve Board which sets monetary policy and regulates the activities of the Federal Reserve Banks, was audited annually by the U.S. Treasury Department. In 1921 Congress created the Government Accounting Office (GAO) and assigned it to audit the Board until 1933. In the Banking Act of 1933, Congress voted specifically to remove the Board from the GAO's jurisdiction. From 1933 to 1952 audit teams from the twelve Federal Reserve Banks performed the annual examination of the BOG's books. From 1952 to 1978, the Board, under authorization from Congress, decided to employ nationally recognize accounting firms to conduct the audits of itself to insure independent oversight. This provided an external evaluation of the adequacy and effectiveness of the examination procedures.1


In 1978 Congress passed the Federal Banking Agency Audit Act (31 USCA §714). It placed the Federal Reserve System back under the auditing authority of the GAO. The Act significantly increased the access of the GAO to the Federal Reserve Banks, the Board, and the Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC). Since then, the GAO has conducted over 100 financial audits and performance audits of the three Federal Reserve bodies.3

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Now are you gonna to try and argue that none of these people know what they are talking about, perhaps they are all stupid because economics wasn't known until yesterday? Mayhaps you are the only person who has a grasp on economics and all those Fed reserve Presidents, secretaries of the treasury and banking behemoths are all just dumb and haven't got a clue how money works.[/FONT]
Nope some good names on that list, shame that they didn't know that they would have their words twisted in ways that they never envisioned. Or their entire speeches read so that they could be in actual context.

We can go on and on, for every argument you make that has no factual backing I will link the facts that support me, but you will be unable to do so, because its not factually true that banks lend money from depositors accounts, therefore there is nothing for you to link because your argument has no basis in reality. None of the Stuff I link is taken out of context, its all there for anyone to read.

One day a light bulb will go off in your head and you will get it, until then you are a debt slave.
You fail to see that all the things that you have deemed proof are half quotes and misunderstandings on your part, or just plain people that don't have a clue.

I am fine being a consumption whore. But that doesn't mean debt slave, well unless somehow being paid in your mind is being a debt slave.

"[W]hen a bank makes a loan, it simply adds to the borrower's deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else's deposit; it was not previously paid in to the bank by anyone. It's new money, created by the bank for the use of the borrower."
- Robert B. Anderson, Secretary of the Treasury under Eisenhower, in an interview reported in the August 31, 1959 issue of U.S. News and World Report
Best yet:
"Anderson's career ended in personal suffering and disgrace. He was hospitalized several times for alcoholism. He illegally operated the Commercial Exchange Bank of Anguilla, British West Indies, which had an unlicensed New York branch office. Several investors lost their life savings in the mid 1980s. In 1987, Anderson pled guilty to criminal violations of the banking laws and to tax evasion, and was sentenced to prison. The Supreme Court of New York Appellate Division, in disbarring Anderson from the practice of law, called his disbarment "a sad but we think necessary end to the legal career of one who has in times less beclouded by poor and corrupt judgment served his country in high office as Secretary of Treasury, Deputy Secretary of the Navy and as Special Ambassador to Panama during the Panama Canal negotiations." [1]

With what he said in your quote, it is easy to see how he ended up in jail eh?

“Do private banks issue money today? Yes. Although banks no longer have the right to issue bank notes, they can create money in the form of bank deposits when they lend money to businesses, or buy securities. . . . The important thing to remember is that when banks lend money they don’t necessarily take it from anyone else to lend. Thus they ‘create’ it.”
-Congressman Wright Patman, Money Facts (House Committee on Banking and Currency, 1964)

Again he is not wrong, any depositor who wants access to all their money has the right to pull it out, and in that sense he is right. But that doesn't mean that the banks are not lending an amount tied to the deposits they carry does it? It is the banks entire reserves (made up of all their deposits and money they have made in the past) and when they make loans it cannot surpass 90% of their total deposits. Why do you think 'create' is in ' '? Because it is not actually 'creating' it, but it is the easiest and fastest way to describe the process.

"Banks create money. That is what they are for. . . . The manufacturing process to make money consists of making an entry in a book. That is all. . . . Each and every time a Bank makes a loan . . . new Bank credit is created -- brand new money."
- Graham Towers, Governor of the Bank of Canada from 1935 to 1955.

We will ignore the years for this one. A credit (a entry on the t-account) is created, what preceeded that, or came after (cut out quote always makes it hard to know what is being actually said). If you have ever wondered what I mean by half quotes being used to make your argument, this is it.

But again look at the fact there is a loan, so a customer again has said that they will forfeit future wages to repay the loan with interest (that they have to fight for right), that money is from the pool of deposits they have (liabilities).



If this were not true, you would think that maybe the Fed would say so and you would be able to link me that evidence, but they (and you ) don't becasue money creation is a fact.
What is it that you need to see? That the money the banks can lend is up to 90% of their total deposits? That the money they have access to is the deposits that they have? Or that a person needs to take out a loan for money to be 'created'. Or that by 'created' it means that the bank is using excess funds to lend to a person who is planning on spending it in the short term. Or that the person is using his future wages to repay the loan?

I thought that you had actually understood these things.

So if I can ask, what is it that you actually could learn that would change your mind on how the system works? Because I know a few people that no matter how much I tried to show them about evolution, they would still refuse to believe it and say creationism is the reality.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_B._Anderson#cite_note-0
 
The other thing I love about you han? You purport to know more than heads of state, treasury secretaries, Chairmen of central banks, Congressmen and senators. I mean why even attend college if you are the ultimate answer to economics? And if its all just math, how come the fed never sees crashes in the economy? How come they are never able to see stock crashes or bubbles of any kind? Why is that? why has it been that way the ENTIRE time the fed has been around. If it was just math then the fed should be able to easily rectify ALL problems. How is it possible that the Austrians saw thes things for YEARS before anyone gave them any heed? How is it possible if what you say is true about how we know so much about economics, then please explain how it is possible that the Austrians can be correct and the Keynsians/Fed so wrong so often? Since the Fed came into being the US has suffered far more than it has ever gained. And more importantly why didn't YOU see these bad times coming?
Hey buddy, do you like to go have a beer now and then?
 
This is actually a very good read. Slightly outdated, but pretty much right on the money.

http://www2.bc.edu/~irelandp/ec261/chapter9.pdf

I just recommend trying to actually understand what it is saying before you try to formulate the argument to it, I know I fall into doing that sometimes.


Umm your example sucks, it doesn't show any loans being made, no deposits coming in other than round 1. You would be better off linking more cartoons
 
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Originally Posted by hanimmal
This is actually a very good read. Slightly outdated, but pretty much right on the money.

http://www2.bc.edu/~irelandp/ec261/chapter9.pdf

I just recommend trying to actually understand what it is saying before you try to formulate the argument to it, I know I fall into doing that sometimes.
Umm your example sucks, it doesn't show any loans being made, no deposits coming in other than round 1. You would be better off linking more cartoons
I guess asking you to read it and just try to understand what it is saying was lost, I did not say it was about somehow talking about money creation, it is about how the banks actually record things, and how they do their bookkeeping to help you understand what it is they do. Because right now you got some bad information floating around. So when you read about credits and demand liabilities you would understand what they had meant.

Dude brawndo's got electrolytes!
lol I know, I am two posts from just telling you I can talk to banks, and they told me they want water!

The other thing I love about you han? You purport to know more than heads of state, treasury secretaries, Chairmen of central banks, Congressmen and senators. I mean why even attend college if you are the ultimate answer to economics?
Some of the people you posted about I said I actually can see what they are saying is correct, just that the people who think that the Fed is satan had got the meaning of it wrong.

But yes, luckily I am able to have their historic mistakes at my disposal and am able to understand why and where they went wrong for the most part.

You are a smart person, and since you are on this website, I am sure that you can see how many politicians, doctors, health officials, food and drug administrators ect have been very wrong about the effects of marijuana right? This is a very similar story. Most of the people you are quoting are not economists that have had the benefit of studying the great depression as a part of history and were unaware of the economic effects that were actually taking place.

And if its all just math, how come the fed never sees crashes in the economy? How come they are never able to see stock crashes or bubbles of any kind? Why is that? why has it been that way the ENTIRE time the fed has been around. If it was just math then the fed should be able to easily rectify ALL problems.
Because they do not have control over the economy like so many people seem to think that they do. All they can do really is put more or less money in banks, change the reserve requirements, and adjust the rates they lend to banks. That is it, they cannot force businesses to borrow, they cannot force people to keep their money in the bank, they cannot force people to spend more money to stimulate.

And especially important, they cannot tell people to cut taxes during recessions and increase spending (Republicans love to screw things up worse by cutting spending during recessions, but do get the cutting taxes right) or in times of booms to increase taxes while cutting spending (Democrats get the taxes right usually but screw it up with trying to keep spending up during these times causing crowding out of investment).

All they can do is try to get the politicians to do the right thing, but politicians tend to do what it is that they think will get them re-elected and screw a lot of shit up.

And if you read the beige books of the 2000's you will see that they were aware of the possibility of the recessions because as I had shown you in previous posts there are indicators that were pointing to a high probability of a recession around 2007 back in 2005, but they were not listened to.

And it was preventable up to them letting Leihman Bros collapse sending us into a deep downward spiral (Hate to say it but Bush screwed the pooch on this one by forcing the bankruptcy) with a POP instead of a slow deflate.

You are assuming that nobody saw this coming, economists were talking about this for years, but nobody ever listens to them, ever. And then to add insult they always bitch about how economists should fix it. 15,000 economists don't have a prayer of changing the spending habits of the other 300 million people in our economy.

How is it possible that the Austrians saw thes things for YEARS before anyone gave them any heed?
Because they have always thought that our economy is some kind of ponzi scheme and always at the brink of collapse?

I mean my dad has predicted Jesus is going to come down and wipe everything out for decades too, but that doesn't mean that if one day it happens I should have believed him all along even though he had no proof for it does it?

How is it possible if what you say is true about how we know so much about economics, then please explain how it is possible that the Austrians can be correct and the Keynsians/Fed so wrong so often? Since the Fed came into being the US has suffered far more than it has ever gained. And more importantly why didn't YOU see these bad times coming?
If you were to really understand one thing that may help, it may be the concept of a range. I am sure that you understand what it is, but try to apply it to what the Fed and economists do. We give a range of the possibilities, we do not have perfect information and cannot come up with exact answers. That is why anytime you hear a economic reveiw of a bill the senators will play the range game, those in favor will use the highest numbers to make it seem great, and the opponents will use the lowest numbers to make their argument sound better.

And you really should take out the Great depression from your Fed story, because it was nothing at that point, it was not until after that they decided not to just let the economy do what it will like they did leading up to the depression. They did exactly what all the republicans and 'libertarians' said we should have done this last time and let everyone collapse, and that is why it was a depression. It would have been the same this last time if they would have.

And if somehow you think that over the last hundred years America has lost far more than it has gained is, you really should look around you. We have benefited greatly with having the most stable and diverse banking system in the world. It has brought us the highest standard of living the world has ever seen.

Hey buddy, do you like to go have a beer now and then?
Yeah, sorry about that. I was trying a new draft while out with some friends and drained 5 over a couple hours. I didn't realize it was a 10% beer and got wrecked. How about yourself?

I do like that it made your sig though! Have you actually seen the beginning of that movie? Best ever.
 
Jesus 10%? You guys put a lil whiskey in with it or what? Personally I rarely ever drink, and if I do its liquor. Beer makes me sick and gives me a headache.


Our economy IS a Ponzi scheme and soon its going to collapse under its own weight. Then we get to have a lowered standard of living, we get to go back to what it was like in the 30's. Won't that be fun? Oh but this time instead of prices falling, their going to inflate and we will be destroyed. Get ready for $100 bread, or perhaps Government will step in and use price controls, then there won't be any bread, how fun! Then there will be war, a great big war with lots of enemies and a bunch of countries will get involved just like always happens when the economies crash. I mean if there is at least ONE thing you can count on the USA for and that is lots and lots of war ( or in these cases they call them Military Engagements, but its still war).
 
Yeah I really am not a fan of drinking anymore, It was fun when I was a kid, but now I prefer to relax and be 100% the next day. I hate being hungover.

But no question my favorite beer of all time, Gulden Draak.

But a ponzi scheme is people paying into a 'investment' that is not really there. They pay the people that want to leave with the peoples money that are coming in, so that the people coming in have little chance to actually get paid back, and as it grows the less likely the people on the bottom of the pyramid will get anything back and end up losing all their money, as well as the people who didn't take their money out the higher you go right.

But the US economy is no where close to a ponzi scheme.

When we work, we get money for doing so. We then use that money to pay for goods and services we decide is worth our money. So immediately we get the benefits of our money and are not getting left in the rain at the end with nothing. You may not feel that what we purchase is worth it, but that doesn't mean that the things the people had purchased did not feel it was worth it right?

I do think we are approaching a peak of standard of living for a while though, nothing scientific backing that up, just how I feel. But that doesn't mean that we will somehow collapse, we will still have all our land, buildings, natural resources, innovations, store fronts, people, homes, roads, ect. These are our standard of living, not how much crap we can purchase from China right? Until India, china, and maybe africa can increase their standards of living we will be top heavy for sure. We need to get the world up to a more economically level playing field, that way we can produce our higher end goods and have more of a market.



With banks, you must realize that people with less than 100k in deposits in a single bank will never lose their bank accounts right. Stocks can increase and decrease, but that is not banks, those are stocks. Bonds can fail as the businesses that issued them collapse, but the one thing that is the safest is our savings accounts.

And if you put money into an account, you are gaining the service of them holding it, there is no ponzi scheme from a depositors point of view because they will get their money back.

And for the people taking out loans it is not a ponzi scheme because they are taking that money and purchasing the goods that they wanted, and understand that they will have to pay back the loan amount with interest.


And the Fed is not a ponzi scheme because the 1900 people that work there are providing a service. They are not getting rich working in the Fed, because they would make far more working in the banks than they do at the Fed. They are not pulling money out and putting it into their own pockets, they are not helping to create fraud like people like to say. All they are doing is trying to keep inflation stable and during economic woes decrease the interest rates so that hopefully businesses will borrow and expand their businesses and hire more people.

That is it, that is the huge secret, all the Fed can really do is buy and sell secondary market treasuries from the banks to add or subtract their excess reserves to effect the amount they have to lend out, adjust the banks reserve requirements because at 100% requirements banks would not be able to make any loans, and at 0% banks would be able to lend out all of the peoples deposits which is not a good thing because people would want their money (not that banks would do this because it is stupid). And change the amount of interest rate that the Fed lends to troubled banks at.

Most of the economic instability comes from areas of the economy that are not regulated or not regulated well. The shadowbanking industry for example is what caused this last crash was pretty much non regulated. Much like the piss poor regulation of the BP oil rig being piss poorly regulated.
 
Who is the shadow banking industry? You mean like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bof A, Lehman Bros, Morgan Stanley????

Who holds ownership in the federal reserve?

Now as far as having 100k in the bank, what would happen if we had annualized inflation of 1 quadrillion percent? 100k would probably only be enough to buy a single grain of rice. How is that going to help? Look at countries like Ukraine or Kenya, Iran or Somalia, they all have inflation rates exceeding 25%. IE every year it costs you 25% more to buy something than last year. How long would 100K last if that happened in the USA? What causes inflation?

Lets say you had 100K worth of gold ( About 90 ounces) . If inflation hits 100% how much gold will you lose?

Lets say you had 100K dollars in the bank. If inflation hits 100% how many dollars will you lose (Purchasing power)

What is the single greatest indicator of inflation to come?

You ever notice when we get into these discussions no one else ever joins in? Why do you think that is?
 
You ever notice when we get into these discussions no one else ever joins in? Why do you think that is?
Lol I think we lose them after the first couple back and forths.

I really wish that more people would weigh in and try to study what we are saying, because it really would help people to understand more of the economy, which I think would make the world a lot less scary for everyone if people actually knew what was going on and being apart of the conversation.

But this is essentially why people can bitch that economists didn't see anything coming, because nobody listens to the conversation.

Who is the shadow banking industry? You mean like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bof A, Lehman Bros, Morgan Stanley????
Lehman and bear sterns were in that for sure, AIG is basically one too, the other banks out there and GS, JP Morgan, ect in order to quit losing competition to them spun off non bank financial companies to essentially take the risk that they were not allowed to carry under the Federal Reserves rules and moved their risk to their shadow banks sometimes dubbed "off balance sheet activities". I wish I could find the senate hearing from a few years ago but I have no clue which bank ceo it was, but essentially around/before 2005 the bankers were in the hearing and one of them actually asked the senate to please regulate them because if they didn't it was going to get ugly.

I know it sounds like stop me from hurting myself, which is stupid, but they were bleeding money to the non-bank financial intermediaries (shadowbanks) that were making a killing taking on huge risk that the banks were not able to do unless they followed suit and opened up their own. That is why you would see all those no name lenders offering crazy home loans, but really you didn't see it from the regular banks, because they were not able to sell the same junk loans.

The investors loved it and flew to these banks because they were making a killing packaging and selling the asset back securities (the home loans) as AAA worthy investment to wallstreet freeing up their money right away and allowing them to make more bogus loans. So if a bank refused to do it they would lose all their investors and get into trouble financially (if their large depositors withdrew and they went below the 10% reserve requirements they would be bankrupted) so they kind of had to if they wanted to stay in business.

Now as far as having 100k in the bank, what would happen if we had annualized inflation of 1 quadrillion percent? 100k would probably only be enough to buy a single grain of rice. How is that going to help? Look at countries like Ukraine or Kenya, Iran or Somalia, they all have inflation rates exceeding 25%. IE every year it costs you 25% more to buy something than last year. How long would 100K last if that happened in the USA? What causes inflation?
If you check into the inflation rates of countries with a independent central bank they are by far the most stable. Because if you think about it, it is very much in the banks best interest to keep it low so that they don't lose their money. The huge amounts of money injections this last year was to stop the bleeding that the banks were going through.

Being at just under 10% unemployment we will not have inflation for a while yet. But once people start to get back to work and inflationary pressure takes hold you will see the Fed make some open market operations (sales) of the treasury securities they are holding to drain the systems excess reserves to nip it in the butt.

I personally think deflation for the next year or two is the large worry though because of the high unemployment rate and low credit scores of the borrowers.
cpi.gif


As one goes up it causes the other to decrease. Makes sense because you have more people working and gaining income, and that means more purchasing and that means a increase in the prices companies can sell their goods for.

Inflation+and+Unemployment.jpg

Lets say you had 100K worth of gold ( About 90 ounces) . If inflation hits 100% how much gold will you lose?

Lets say you had 100K dollars in the bank. If inflation hits 100% how many dollars will you lose (Purchasing power)

What is the single greatest indicator of inflation to come?

You are thinking of the money supply right? M2SL_Max_630_378.png


I think I have a good analogy for this.

I am sure at some time you have done something like the cheap tow truck method right? Where you tie a long ass rope to a broken car and the other end to the back of a truck to tow it for a few miles.

So think of that rope as the money supply, where under optimal conditions it is taught and pressure and towing the car.

Then there are times where the truck slows down and the rope becomes loose and there is a lot of slack in it, this would be where we are at now, there is a ton of slack (money) in the system that is not being used and the truck almost got slammed in the ass because the broken car got away from it (the economy was going too fast and the pop when Lehman was allowed to collapse).

What we don't want to have happen is for them to shrink the rope tight just yet, we want to ease the truck back up to a speed just to the point that the car is back to being towed. So as the economy picks back up and jobs start to really increase they will pull in some of the slack that is in the money supply (tightening the rope instead of jarring it tight).

One thing to remember though M2 is not currency, and doesn't have the same inflationary moves that excess currency in our pockets does, I am assuming this chart is correct, I am just showing it because it shows that the cash increase is not as dramatic of an increase as M2:
TotalMoneySupply.png
And I am not saying it doesn't have a big inflationary pressure, but it is not the same as if they doubled the amount of cash in our pockets. Once banks start to lend and that cash does start to hit our pockets, then the inflation will increase.

But first we need to get out of this deflationary trend and back to a small increase in inflation for a couple quarters, then you will see the Fed draining the banks excess reserves and increasing the interest rates.
 
The only deflation were having is in housing, otherwise inflation. And that is normal because many homes were way way overpriced and they still need to come down quite a bit, maybe another 40% until the market is satisfied. But real inflation always lags the increase in money supply becasue the velocity takes some time to build. But you know this already so I digress.

Once the money is lent out the increase will be 10 times what has been reserved, very inflationary. Excess currency in your pocket is no different than excess digits in your checking account, it affects inflation the same. Like I said earlier, it all spends the same, cash is just anonymous.

So you understand that the market is like a Nylon rope that stretches and shrinks, what causes that? Why do we have such high unemployment (18-20%)? Why are there so many booms and busts and why has the dollar lost so much purchasing power?

What is the Fed tasked with? What is their mission? What is the goal of having a Fed?

Answer: Monetary policy has two basic goals: to promote "maximum" sustainable output and employment and to promote "stable" prices. These goals are prescribed in a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act.

How are they doing so far?
I would give them a solid F and make them repeat the first grade.

Remember when I told you economics wasn't really a science so much as psychology? I found a nice quote from Mr Greenspan.

Greenspan: I was telling my colleagues the other day...I'd been dealing with these big mathematical models for forecasting the economy, and I'm looking at what's going on the last few weeks and I say, "Y'know, if I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful, or changing to euphoric... I don't need any of this other stuff. I could forecast the economy better than any way I know. The trouble is, we can't figure that out. I've been in the forecasting business for 50 years, and I'm no better than I ever was, and nobody else is either."


FYI the Federal Reserve's shareholders are:
1. Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin. 2. Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris. 3. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy. 4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam. 5. Lehman Brothers of NY. 6. Kuhn, Loeb Bank of NY (Now Shearson American Express). 7. Goldman, Sachs of NY. 8. National Bank of Commerce NY/Morgan Guaranty Trust (J. P. Morgan Bank - Equitable Life - Levi P. Morton are principal shareholders). 9. Hanover Trust of NY (William and David Rockefeller & Chase National Bank NY are principal shareholders).

Hey look, its the shadow banks that own the fed, how interesting eh? You don't suppose that they would make rules that benefited their shareholders do you?

Now go read up on Lehman Bros and see How GS stabbed them in the back and JP Morgan took over Bear Stearns and took over its naked shorting operations so that it could continue to manipulate the gold and silver markets.

Now look at a group called GATA and see if they don't make you feel like you have been lied to for a very long time.
 
Man, I have been working in my basement and am beat right now, but my new room is almost finished so I am just going to have to push through. So maybe it is because I am exhausted, but I think that your post is very good. All around I must say very good. And I am bummed because I want to put the time it deserves into it right now, but I need a couple hours to go get some more supplies and then I can!


The only deflation were having is in housing, otherwise inflation. And that is normal because many homes were way way overpriced and they still need to come down quite a bit, maybe another 40% until the market is satisfied. But real inflation always lags the increase in money supply becasue the velocity takes some time to build. But you know this already so I digress.

Not just that, but inflation really cannot take hold with high unemployment, there is not enough dollars in peoples hands to be spent at a fast enough rate to get the inflationary pressure going. And so I agree it will be awhile before inflation is a worry because unemployment is the final thing to recover in a recession.

----------

Wow I started typing this yesterday morning and am just getting back to it. This working on my basement is kicking my ass, and I have 2 finals this week too. So I am going to have to postpone for a bit longer.
 
Han, you know how you made the argument that China's economy will slow becasue as wages rise they will have to raise prices therefore they will sell less to foreign markets? then you went and made the distinction between USA GDP of 14 trillion and China's GDP of 2.5 trillion? And then you said that therefore the USA must manufacture more than China right? If USA GDP is 70% Consumer spending that doesn't leave a whole lot left over to be selling manufactured goods over seas.

As China's Wages increase they will support their own domestic demand more and more. Eventually with the HUGE population they have they wouldn't need to sell us their stuff, they can just sell their own people their own stuff. Currently China has 33% of their GDP due to Consumer Spending, so they have a lONG way to catch up. The savings rate in China is about 30% per household, SO that means that China has EXCESS capital that it can invest. USA savings rate is less than 1% because American's don't save, they use credit. China's Economy will not slow due to decreased demand from us, it will grow due to increased demand from its own citizens. China isn't ruled by Mao anymore, its a completely different country in so many ways now.

Lets also not forget that the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the Dollar, that means that no matter how much inflation the USA creates it will not be able to decrease the trade imbalance with China. That is why our government calls them Currency Manipulators.

Inflation can certainly take over with high unemployment. You were too young in 1981-1983 to probably remember the 10% + unemployment combined with the 15% inflation. It was called STAGFLATION. 1923 Weimar Germany had 27,000% Inflation and unemployment rates of 13%. Zimbabwe had 1.2 Quadrillion % inflation with a 90% unemployment rate. So yeah your theories are completely mistaken. Not sure if someone taught you these false things or what/how you came up with that nonsense.

As long as the USA has a deficit ( which it always has except for Jackson's term) it will need to Borrow money to operate. Since the US Government is the Fed's only customer its a safe bet that loans will always be made and money will continue to be created and backed by your tax dollar. The Government has no savings so it also has no capital or anyway to invest in its own future. About the only thing the Gubbermint has is the power to tax and imprison and enforce laws with the barrel of a gun, of which it has a great deal of experience and practice.

You know something else that might pique your interest is this:

If you OWN your house, I mean have it all paid off, no mortgage. Do you actually OWN it?

If you own something and it is 100% yours it cannot be taken from you right? Try not paying your property tax and see if they don't come and take your home away from you and sell it to someone else. Thats because you are just a tenant, look at your deed, it lists you as a tenant, not as an owner. A tenant is someone who has legal interest in a property that is granted by a lessor or Lord ( State). Fucked up isn't it? Legal definitions of words usually mean something far different than people think.
 
Hope the last couple days have been good man, I have a couple finals on Wed and have been studying while trying to finish my basement. But these were a couple great back to back posts and I wanted to put some time into them, but just been busy.

Han, you know how you made the argument that China's economy will slow becasue as wages rise they will have to raise prices therefore they will sell less to foreign markets? then you went and made the distinction between USA GDP of 14 trillion and China's GDP of 2.5 trillion? And then you said that therefore the USA must manufacture more than China right? If USA GDP is 70% Consumer spending that doesn't leave a whole lot left over to be selling manufactured goods over seas.

I am not sure about the timeline of what I was saying, but all those pieces I do see as true.
We are far larger than China in manufacturing, we ...... wow I was searching for the numbers and stumbled onto this:


Source: CBO Economic & Budget Issue Brief

Upper Mismanagement: Why can't Americans make things? Two words: business schoolHmm, to read this article U.S. manufacturing is in a parlous state, as evidenced by the fact that it "... has shed almost one-third of its manpower over the last eight years..." Apparently this is due to a dearth of good managerial talent, since starting in 1965 business school graduates increasingly opted for the consulting and financial industries; fewer managers came from production backgrounds; and business schools tended to "reflect and reinforce" these trends. Also, business schools started to get better students, but apparently this was a bad thing because they were "over-achievers" and "... motivated primarily by salary rather than some lifelong ambition to run a steel mill..."



Towards the end, the article generously opines that "... it would be ludicrous to suggest that simply changing the culture of business schools would single-handedly revive U.S. manufacturing..." Ludicrous... an excellent word... which perhaps should also be applied to the title and the entire article, it's thesis as well as its ending i.e. "... it’s hard to believe that American manufacturing has a chance of recovering unless business schools start producing people who can run industrial companies, not just buy and sell their assets..."


What a load of drivel. The underlying contention appears to be that the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment is symptomatic of a decline in manufacturing is risible. U.S. manufacturing output accounts for about a quarter of global manufacturing output. In 2009 it is valued at around $2.7 trillion, which would be equivalent to the sixth largest economy in the world.

The decrease in manufacturing employment has many causes. Chief among them is the fact that manufacturing productivity has soared, so that manufacturing output has greatly increased even while manufacturing employment has simultaneously decreased (see graphs above). Other reasons include the effects of foreign competition, the declining share of consumer spending dedicated to manufactured goods, and the increasing use of temporary, part-time workers, and contracted labor. And the trend of reductions in manufacturing employment has occurred across the world... Robert Reich's 'The Future of Manufacturing, GM, and American Workers' illustrates this point: "... Economists at Alliance Capital Management took a look at employment trends in twenty large economies and found that between 1995 and 2002--before the asset bubble and subsequent bust--twenty-two million manufacturing jobs disappeared. The United States wasn't even the biggest loser. We lost about 11% of our manufacturing jobs in that period, but the Japanese lost 16% of theirs. Even developing nations lost factory jobs: Brazil suffered a 20% decline, and China had a 15% drop..."


The article also uses the example of agriculture to point out the frivolity of gauging the health of an industry by its historical employment trends, "... In this, manufacturing is following the same trend as agriculture. A century ago, almost 30% of adult Americans worked on a farm. Nowadays, fewer than 5% do. That doesn't mean the U.S. failed at agriculture. Quite the opposite. American agriculture is a huge success story..." Should the U.S. government be supporting a return to the farm? Well then why should it attempt to "revive" manufacturing employment?OK, in sum, a silly article, embellished with an equally silly and superficial analysis...

Great quick little read.

So we are around 20% of the entire worlds manufacturing, which is not even a bit of all the service industry that we export, just what we produce. We buy most of our goods here as a country, but we still export quit a bit.

And with China (if you have not seen it yet: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...5282404182282706.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
TAIPEI—Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. said Wednesday it would increase wages for its workers in China by 30%, more than it had originally planned, in the latest sign of pressure on companies to improve conditions for employees in the country's vast manufacturing sector.

So as the middle class erupts in China, it is wonderful for them, they will produce much more and have a great increase in GDP. But why I am pointing out how much further we are than them I would have been thinking (if in this context of course) that as they increase, there will be a decay of their rate of growth. And as we trade more with them, and they buy more of our goods (because as their money increases they can purchase more of our goods (and we will buy less of theirs) and due to this we will still benefit from the trade increase (even if not as much as they are), and still be growing as well.

So it would be a very very long time before they would be able to actually meet us in a global equilibrium and then overtake us.

It wouldn't be such a big deal (except nobody would be able to say 'we are number 1') because we would still greatly benefit from eachother. Just like saying that somehow since the US became number 1, England has fallen into decay. It may be an old city, but they have been adding to their standard of living all along, and many of the innovations would never have come if we had not became the powerhouse we are.

Lets also not forget that the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the Dollar, that means that no matter how much inflation the USA creates it will not be able to decrease the trade imbalance with China. That is why our government calls them Currency Manipulators.
Which is a big reason why their people are pissed about needing wage increases. The country would not need to worry about this as much because if they opened up the currency to be market determined they would eventually find out that their people would be a lot more happy and be able to purchase far more of the goods they need (like food and machinery from America) and not need to worry about wage increases.

Inflation can certainly take over with high unemployment. You were too young in 1981-1983 to probably remember the 10% + unemployment combined with the 15% inflation. It was called STAGFLATION. 1923 Weimar Germany had 27,000% Inflation and unemployment rates of 13%. Zimbabwe had 1.2 Quadrillion % inflation with a 90% unemployment rate. So yeah your theories are completely mistaken. Not sure if someone taught you these false things or what/how you came up with that nonsense.

I apologize, you are correct.

I should have pointed out that if the governments are retarded and able to control the amount of currency in the system due to political pressures they can fuck some shit up. If you look at what was happening in Germany, Zimbabwe, Argentina, ect. You will find a government that was minting all kinds of currency to try to pay for whatever.

But another thing that can happen is that all the wealthy cash in all their money at the same time, so this is always a scare. But they have to actually spend the money on goods which puts the money in the system and we at the low end get our hands on a bunch and as we do businesses start getting huge runs on their goods and can increase prices, and it can get out of control.

All the wealthiest people end up with more than they had before and we all hurt by having to put the jigsaw back together with a few pieces missing.

But this is just impossible to stop, doesn't matter if it is gold, or anything, if you have people coordinated with far more available to them they will be able to manipulate what they want to do with purchasing. But the amount of times this has happened is very small in our history, and realistically would only hurt most of us for a few years, because we would just quit using that currency and since it is going worthless, we would be able to pay off our debts with it in nothing flat, then just work for goods until a new currency is found.

And the beautiful thing is that if there are people out there that can do this, they have already had all this power for a far longer time than they would have needed and would have done all this years ago, but since they are able to get whatever it is that they want, how much more can they get? Very little. So until I see people building skyscrapers for a burial site I think we will be fine that they have enough wealth for a while.

As long as the USA has a deficit ( which it always has except for Jackson's term) it will need to Borrow money to operate. Since the US Government is the Fed's only customer its a safe bet that loans will always be made and money will continue to be created and backed by your tax dollar. The Government has no savings so it also has no capital or anyway to invest in its own future. About the only thing the Gubbermint has is the power to tax and imprison and enforce laws with the barrel of a gun, of which it has a great deal of experience and practice.
Yeah economically the government has been very stupid over the years and have overstepped into many areas it never should have been.

But what do you mean the Fed's only customer is the government? We both know that the Fed cannot buy the new treasuries from the government. The Fed will only buy so many from the banks because they (banks and Fed) do not want inflation to be too high because it will mean that they are going to make less money on the interest of their loans.

You know something else that might pique your interest is this:

If you OWN your house, I mean have it all paid off, no mortgage. Do you actually OWN it?

If you own something and it is 100% yours it cannot be taken from you right? Try not paying your property tax and see if they don't come and take your home away from you and sell it to someone else. Thats because you are just a tenant, look at your deed, it lists you as a tenant, not as an owner. A tenant is someone who has legal interest in a property that is granted by a lessor or Lord ( State). Fucked up isn't it? Legal definitions of words usually mean something far different than people think.
Yeah I am not a fan of this at all. I think that property taxes should be linked to purchases. I am a huge supporter of education and know that it is the best way for a community to make sure it is prosperous in the future and all the people that live there should pay into it to mitigate the costs, because very few people can afford to pay 10 grand a year for their children to go to a school.

But people would get all scared with 'big brother'. So until people remember that all their actual information is already with the government them being able to track purchases (should not be able to be accessed for prosecution, because if they do it opens back up the black market and we would be back to square one).

Ok back to studying, I am taking my time with the previous post, because I really want to get into it, this is one of the areas that 'keynesian' economics and 'classical' economics had a divergence. And I really want to put some time into it because 1. I want it to be correct, and 2. I want to really be able to put some thought into it because it is really interesting to me.
 
The Chinese Yuan does not float in value to the US dollar, China's currency CANNOT get stronger than the Dollar. The Yuan is PEGGED to the dollar, thats why Geithner calls them "Currency manipulators". And that is why they will be selling more to us than us to them for the foreseeable future. If china were to unpeg their currency from ours, most likely its value would skyrocket compared to the Dollar. If it didn't, then their HUGE cash reserves of dollars would be worth quite a bit more than it is now. China is a seller of US treasuries, no longer a net buyer.

The other thing I wanted to note was that you are getting all your info from the BLS. the BLS lies about everything to make the USA look much stronger than it is, i do not trust any of the data coming from them. The BLS is constantly adjusting the numbers as they find out how badly they fudged it up.

Also your data is 3 years old, did you know that China DOUBLED its use of coal in just the last year? The demand for electricity in china doubles every couple of years, as does the demand for Gasoline.

The typical Chinese family saves anywhere from 50-75% of its income, the Chinese have capital in which they can invest. The typical American Family saves nothing but instead finances all of its purchases through the use of credit, once the credit is gone the typical American Family has nothing to invest. Chinese villagers save up gold to buy a home.

Normally the Fed cannot make direct purchases of securities, but TARP and the Bailout is exactly that, direct purchases. Also since it is the OWNERS of the fed that do the buying ( The Big Commercial Banks) its not really much different than direct sales. Kind of like Saying GM does not buy steel directly, but Chevrolet does.
 
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