Gold-good investment or hype.

max420thc said:

they are caught between a shit and a sweat . if they raise interest rates the interest paid on the national debt will go up.also stall a faltering economy .if they raise interest rates as much as 2% all of the moneys in the US collected in tax's will go to just pay the interest on the debt. the country is flat ass broke and is running on borrowed time and money.
if they dont raise interest rates they are going to have WORSE hyper inflation.
the wholesale prices you mentioned earlier is just the start of inflation..watch it catch fire and burn out of control and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it once it is on fire.
bernake and obama are the match.
its to late to put the geni back into the bottle. the 12 trillion has already been spent.

Click to expand...

its already too late you think?


they were saying on the news that it could be like the hyper inflation in the 70's

do you agree or do you think it will be worse than the inflation in the 70's?


i dont even know about the 70's inflation cuz i was just a sperm back then

CrackerJax nothing is ever over. Real Estate is a big tent. If it were over i guess everyone would go to work and sit in the air, not in a building. Over???

I don't buy gold it's just not what I do. I don't really buy a lot of real estate either. I have and I will but my cash position right now doesn't allow it. But as a commercial real estate broker with 15 years experience and a healthy pipeline I can assure that real estate is not "over." It will never be over and someone is always making money in it just like every other investment. It's actually just started again. This year will be a huge buy year for commercial. Similar to what is going on in residential. When people say "real estate" they need to be sector and city specific as it varies that much. Gold is gold. Real Estate and securities are many things.

What I like about securities and other items that are traded daily is the fact that you are very liquid. Equity in real estate is nothing until it's sold...this can take a year or more at times.

What I like about real estate...specifically apartment buildings is that I'm good at it. It's what I do and I'm able to keep an eye on things and stay tuned in better than the average consumer. Pocket deals and buy opportunities will always be more readily available to me and my industry brothers long before they hit the market.

My long term retirement plan does not involve any real estate. Real estate may fund certain portions along the way but ultimately I invest in my Life Insurance. I make 6% tax free every single year. It's like hitting 10% and paying taxes. I don't need big returns because big returns are not needed if you invest properly and frequently.

Most that are chasing fat returns have probably not lost any significant money yet. A sound financial plan with direction is all that anyone needs to make money...oh and patience.

highrise said:

Maybe so but to be honest I personally have no idea why fannie mae was ever created. They seem like a useless middleman in the whole scheme of home loans. It seems like if your bank sees you as a qualified and sound person to loan money for a house why would they need to sell off your mortage. If the bank needs more capital to make more loans isn't that what the sale of stock is for?

Click to expand...

You're assuming all companies are publicly traded.

Most commercial loans originated by banks are still serviced by the bank that originated them. A massive bulk of residential lending is bought up through fannie/freddie.

Lending isn't necessarily about the earning of interest. It's more about the selling of the paper and a premium. SRP's, service release premiums is where lenders make there money on resi paper.

The selling of paper is reference in terms like 98,99, 101...that is % above or below the note value being sold.

I packed up a few deals back in the late 90's that were going for 104. Basically 104% of the face value of the notes. 4% on every mil is $40k. Do the math...

Most SRP's aren't that high though. Especially today.

which states still have good markets lets say in the south part of the USA?


do they have a rating by state or somthing you could post for us or enlighten us

Big P said:

its already too late you think?


they were saying on the news that it could be like the hyper inflation in the 70's

do you agree or do you think it will be worse than the inflation in the 70's?


i dont even know about the 70's inflation cuz i was just a sperm back then

Click to expand...

Yes, these guys help fuel the meltdown by flooding us in $$$. Now AS USUAL .. they are a day late and a dollar short.... wait 12 Trillion dollars short.

DubsFan said:

You're assuming all companies are publicly traded.

Most commercial loans originated by banks are still serviced by the bank that originated them. A massive bulk of residential lending is bought up through fannie/freddie.

Lending isn't necessarily about the earning of interest. It's more about the selling of the paper and a premium. SRP's, service release premiums is where lenders make there money on resi paper.

The selling of paper is reference in terms like 98,99, 101...that is % above or below the note value being sold.

I packed up a few deals back in the late 90's that were going for 104. Basically 104% of the face value of the notes. 4% on every mil is $40k. Do the math...

Most SRP's aren't that high though. Especially today.

Click to expand...

When I say over, I don't mean forever. But the days of watching the typical house appreciate at a desired rate IS OVER. The market is in tatters and is going to stay that way far longer than the usual cycles of the past.
If you fancy urself a real estate guru....you might do a-okay, but for the average citizen who thinks their house is an automatic retirement vehicle ... I've got some bad news for you.

And yes....the crazy Congress is firing up Fred & Fannie for an ENCORE.

This isn't over....not by any stretch.

CrackerJax said:

Yes, these guys help fuel the meltdown by flooding us in $$$. Now AS USUAL .. they are a day late and a dollar short.... wait 12 Trillion dollars short.



When I say over, I don't mean forever. But the days of watching the typical house appreciate at a desired rate IS OVER. The market is in tatters and is going to stay that way far longer than the usual cycles of the past.
If you fancy urself a real estate guru....you might do a-okay, but for the average citizen who thinks their house is an automatic retirement vehicle ... I've got some bad news for you.

And yes....the crazy Congress is firing up Fred & Fannie for an ENCORE.

This isn't over....not by any stretch.

Click to expand...

how bad will the inflation be, you think?


$100 today is worth how much in 5 years?


rough wild guess

Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies. Exchange Rates (Exchange rates displayed are the middle point between bid and ask) [details] Currency Chg%
X=1$USD NY Time X=
1$USD X$USD
=1 Gold
Price/oz Gold
Chg Gold
Chg% US Dollar -- 02/18-21:43 -- -- 1105.80 -2.30 -0.21% Australian Dollar -0.28% 02/18-21:32 1.1212 0.8919 1239.77 +0.86 +0.07% Brazilian Real +0.00% 02/18-16:51 1.8185 0.5499 2010.90 -4.18 -0.21% British Pound -0.56% 02/18-21:43 0.6479 1.5436 716.39 +2.50 +0.35% Canadian Dollar -0.01% 02/18-21:42 1.0487 0.9536 1159.60 -2.30 -0.20% Chinese Yuan +0.04% 02/18-20:31 6.8251 0.1465 7540.37 -25.85 -0.34% Euro -0.15% 02/18-21:42 0.7412 1.3493 819.56 -0.49 -0.06% Hong Kong Dollar -0.13% 02/18-21:39 7.7717 0.1287 8593.95 -6.35 -0.07% Indian Rupee +0.61% 02/18-19:14 45.9950 0.0217 50861.27 -416.06 -0.81% Japanese Yen +0.10% 02/18-21:42 91.8400 0.0109 101556.67 -310.96 -0.31% Mexican Pesos -0.25% 02/18-21:37 12.9028 0.0775 14267.92 +6.67 +0.05% Russian Ruble -0.11% 02/18-21:32 30.1443 0.0332 33333.57 -33.65 -0.10% S.African Rand -0.26% 02/18-21:42 7.6551 0.1306 8465.01 +4.33 +0.05% Swiss Franc -0.25% 02/18-21:42 1.0869 0.9201 1201.84 +0.55 +0.05% The quotes on this page are relevant for trading precious metals in their pure, standard, exchange-approved, bar form. Fabrication costs for various precious metals products are not included. Please visit the Kitco Store for our product not long ago the canadian dollar vrs the US dollar was 1.50 to one us dollar.if you look it is dollar per dollar now. you lost 50% of your purchasing capacity in just a few short years..
you can expect to see 30 and 40% inflation rates i would think it would be realistic.marc faber says 40 or so in a couple of years. and hes almost never wrong...just a slight little off on the timing sometimes..but not much.marc faber jim rogers ect.these guys are MAJOR WOLD PLAYERS..rogers is worth billions..these are not stupid people.
Ross Perot can now say i told you so. everything he predicted has come to pass.

Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies. Exchange Rates (Exchange rates displayed are the middle point between bid and ask) [details] Currency Chg%
X=1$USD NY Time X=
1$USD X$USD
=1 Gold
Price/oz Gold
Chg Gold
Chg% US Dollar -- 02/18-21:43 -- -- 1105.80 -2.30 -0.21% Australian Dollar -0.28% 02/18-21:32 1.1212 0.8919 1239.77 +0.86 +0.07% Brazilian Real +0.00% 02/18-16:51 1.8185 0.5499 2010.90 -4.18 -0.21% British Pound -0.56% 02/18-21:43 0.6479 1.5436 716.39 +2.50 +0.35% Canadian Dollar -0.01% 02/18-21:42 1.0487 0.9536 1159.60 -2.30 -0.20% Chinese Yuan +0.04% 02/18-20:31 6.8251 0.1465 7540.37 -25.85 -0.34% Euro -0.15% 02/18-21:42 0.7412 1.3493 819.56 -0.49 -0.06% Hong Kong Dollar -0.13% 02/18-21:39 7.7717 0.1287 8593.95 -6.35 -0.07% Indian Rupee +0.61% 02/18-19:14 45.9950 0.0217 50861.27 -416.06 -0.81% Japanese Yen +0.10% 02/18-21:42 91.8400 0.0109 101556.67 -310.96 -0.31% Mexican Pesos -0.25% 02/18-21:37 12.9028 0.0775 14267.92 +6.67 +0.05% Russian Ruble -0.11% 02/18-21:32 30.1443 0.0332 33333.57 -33.65 -0.10% S.African Rand -0.26% 02/18-21:42 7.6551 0.1306 8465.01 +4.33 +0.05% Swiss Franc -0.25% 02/18-21:42 1.0869 0.9201 1201.84 +0.55 +0.05% The quotes on this page are relevant for trading precious metals in their pure, standard, exchange-approved, bar form. Fabrication costs for various precious metals products are not included. Please visit the Kitco Store for our product

P.... it's almost impossible to predict what will be the financial position in 5 years. It won't be good debt wise, that's for sure. But any number of current events can change everything very quickly.

Anything from an oil blockade to an Israeli attack on Iran or worse, a nuke strike from Iran... China holds 20% of our debt.....and have slowed their US bond buying as a shot across our bow.

I could not hazard a guess.... but I'm sure there are plenty of folks who will. It's something that needs to be always in your peripheral economic vision.

my words got jumbled up in the exchange rate (that didnt come out like i copied it.)
marc faber says as much as 40% inflation rate.

max420thc said:

my words got jumbled up in the exchange rate (that didnt come out like i copied it.)
marc faber says as much as 40% inflation rate.

Click to expand...

so my $100 may end up being $60 if the shit hits the fan?



and they wonder why we dislike liberal spenders


that means 5 months out of the year I work just to pay for these polititions greedy "mistakes"????????




so basically your telling me that 5 months out of the year im a fucking slave???


i want reparations!!!!!!!!!!!



im a slave for 5 months out of the year,

how will I be able to face my family? i hope they never know the truth, that thier daddy works as a part time slave.


seems like if that happend i would be better off quiting my job and obtaining my income through illigal activities while sucking of the government tit to supliment my income,.


no doublt that would be the most profitable route


i divorce my wife on paper, quit my job put her and the kids on welfare (pretend I abondoned them)

then can just sell drugs up the prices due to inflation, and not pay taxes since they have not been living up to thier responsibilities ill be damned if they think i will sit there like a bitch and break my back for them


and trust me bribing will be a whole new industry once everyone is starving


a great many will turn to crime and organized crime just like in russia.


its only a matter of time,

you will be able to pay your way out of charges my more easily when the diarriah his the jet engine baby












there will be blood kids i promise you that.

uh..you lost six percent of your wages this year..right now we have a illegal government ran outside the constitution where our elected officials break the law at will.
charlie wrangle for example forgot some how to not pay tax's on millions of dollars he forgot about..on a congressmans salary?
how did he get that kind of money?
he is guilty of a felony..he is in charge of taxing the rest of us and does not pay tax?
we no longer have a republic we..the USA are a tyranny now.when a government and its officials do not follow the law no one in this country is under no moral obligation to follow the law.
CRIME DOES PAY...just look at congress.
the way this country does a progressive heavy income tax we ALL ALREADY WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT..
in the last twelve years you have lost about 50% of your purchasing power through inflation/devaluation of the currency.WE ARE SLAVES TO THE GOVERNMENT.
we are talking about inflation in one year to equal that soon.the money will be junked..if you are not rich enough to flee this economy to where your dollar would have some purchasing power you would have to leave to a third world country(what we are becoming)or simpley put most of your saved money into gold/silver/oil wheat corn rice ect..AND SUGAR..SUGAR IS A EXCELLENT INVESTMENT. right now rogers is starting a fund to invest into sri lanka...i would think it would be a excellent opportunity .
you know whats going to happen protect yourself.
guns ,ammo, food, and fruit and veg seeds. NON HYBRID .save if you have anything your money in gold and silver..when the carpet finally gets pulled out from under the US you wont starve.
save meds if you are on meds put some back incase you have high blood pressure talk to the doc and tell him you need a few extra pills. and rotate your stock.
history has shown stupid and ignorant is not bliss. stupid and ignorant of what is going on around you can get you and others killed.you have a responsibility to yourself and your family .
dont be lazy and put off tomorrow what you can do today.educate yourself read learn apply . you have a whole life time...dont waste it..there will be plenty of time to sleep when you are dead.
survivors what do they all say that gets them through..soldiers marines men who have a really really hard jobs and only the smart strong and prepared survive.
here is what almost all them say. BE PREPARED . YOU CANT BE TOO PREPARED.FAITH(IN GOD)THERE ARE NO ATHEISTS IN FOX HOLES. YOU CAN BELIEVE IT.AND FAMILY/ FRIENDS .

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Barrack Obama speaking Huh Huh --- Ummmmm

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Cheney just announced Obama is a one term President.

Since Cheney secretly is in charge of the govt. ... it's official.

I don't know why anyone would think there house is an investment vehicle. On average equity gains over the last few decades is under 5%. This was the figure back in 2005 when shit was still good for home values. Now it's probably hovering near 2-3%.

People, buying a home is a lifestyle decision. Don't think for one second it's cheaper than renting. Even with an interest deduction. Repairs are expensive.

Can you make money off your house? Sure. But in general it's something you should just live in and pay off.

If I could go back to 1999 when I bought my first house in San Diego, I should have sold it and bought this one apartment building and lived in a unit. I don't think I'd have to work now if I kept exchanging up. 10 years later I could easily have bought up to a 50 unit building. Oh well...next time

DubsFan said:

People, buying a home is a lifestyle decision. Don't think for one second it's cheaper than renting. Even with an interest deduction. Repairs are expensive.

Click to expand...

No long term it is almost always better than renting. if you buy a house for $100,000 on a 15 yr 6% note ($850/month), after 10 years you will have spent $102,000 but will have $57,000 in equity even if the house does not go up in value at all. If the house loses 20% value you still have $37,000 in equity. Best of all your payment will not go up during the laon period and is gone after 15 years.

If you rent for $850/month then after 10 years you have no equity and have spent $102,000. This is assuming your landlord does not raise your rent during this time.

But again this assumes you will live there long term. Anything less than 5 years may not be worth it.

highrise said:

No long term it is almost always better than renting. if you buy a house for $100,000 on a 15 yr 6% note ($850/month), after 10 years you will have spent $102,000 but will have $57,000 in equity even if the house does not go up in value at all. If the house loses 20% value you still have $37,000 in equity. Best of all your payment will not go up during the laon period and is gone after 15 years.

If you rent for $850/month then after 10 years you have no equity and have spent $102,000. This is assuming your landlord does not raise your rent during this time.

But again this assumes you will live there long term. Anything less than 5 years may not be worth it.

Click to expand...

Well, being that my kitchen cost $70k I gess that makes this analysis a bit off??? In the last 8 years I've borrowed or spent in cash $300k to remodel.

There is no you're right I'm wrong. But owning a house is a lifestyle decision more than anything else. You don't build equity by paying down your loan...you "pay" for that equity. It is dollars spent too.

Again, I'm in real estate and have been since 1995 and own my own brokerage. Your analysis didn't include anything except the payment.

If you live in Illinois that 100k house has what, $3500 a year of taxes. Your first home loan is never a 15 year loan...Insurance? Deductable on claims? I have a list of expenses for owning. Wanna see it? It's a line item expense sheet with over 100 expenses.

Don't forget the water bill

Just like those that analyse owning large apartments. They say to me "hey the payment with taxes and insurance is only $4000mo but my rents collected are $10,000 a month. I'm gonna net $6k a mo.

T.I.M.M.U.R.

Taxes, insurance, management, maintenance, utilities and reserves is roughly 35-45% of your gross collected rents. After you expense that you have what's called your NOI or Net Operating Income. So if you gross 10k a month in rents collected, before you even pay the bank you only have about 6k to work with. Then you pay that loan.

Nothing wrong with netting $2k a month but it just goes to show how many don't realize what the total cost of owning real estate is.

It's a thirsty animal.

if you think these idiots dont know what the real cost of real estate is ..just think how many of them dont know what the real cost of operating a business is?
most people bitch because the business owner does not kiss their ass give them high pay without performance . look at all the money the business owner is making..so they vote to steal from that man or woman who owns the business.
what they dont understand is the business owner..if he is not run out of business by government regulations or unions. make NOTHING for the first several years attempting to develop his business AT A LOSS..many of them gamble to create a business with their homes familys and other sacrifices. the average liberal thinks the shit grows on trees and money is made without effort.
you hear them all the time on here whining about someones pay he EARNED normally without a understanding of the sacrifices it took to make good money.
they bitch and moan when a company leaves the US and blame the greedy (normally calling them republicans)what they dont understand the idiots is a business like any other must compete in the market. if the US can not compete then the business goes some place else..this country now has the highest corporate tax rate in the world...
i wonder why corporations and business are fleeing the country in droves?