"I'm the Most Bullied Person On the World"

Fogdog · Oct 11, 2018

Unclebaldrick said:
Ok, so here's the thing about Trump's China comment.

First off, what is the main goal of the Chinese government? It is to maintain power. Currently the way they are doing that is by ensuring that the Chinese economy keeps growing. The increasing economic prospects of a large swath of the Chinese people means that they are willing to sacrifice freedom for better lives. That is why you have not seen a second Tienanmen Square. The Chinese people (who are known for being long-suffering) will tolerate repression, kidnappings, the imprisonment and re-education of millions, etc. because their lives (of many of them) are finally getting better.

The US/China trade war threatens that economic growth. If Chinese growth slows substantially from the growth in the last 15 years or so, the whole economy could be imperiled and the bubble is at risk of bursting. This would risk political unrest and threaten the government of China, the Communist Party (which is pretty much just a name having little or no connection to actual communism at this point.) This gives us whatever leverage we have over them in matters of trade.

But, if Trump succeeds in alienating the Chinese people themselves, the risk of political turmoil drops substantially as does the leverage that our trade policies. Trump's idiotic comments work directly into the hands of the repressive Chinese government.

The Chinese people have suffered mightily over the last few hundred years (and more). Colonialism, opium wars, prohibition of immigration to the West, all of these things were hurtful and humiliating. And then came the war. No country in the world suffered more than China in WWII. No country fought longer than China. No country lost more people than China. And after the war, there was Mao. The Korean War, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, the one child policy that forced Chinese people to kill their own babies are scars they will carry for generations. Yes, Mao was an internal terror, but one that the average Chinese citizen had no power over. These are the reasons why the economic prosperity of the current age are so powerful a force that they have foregone political reforms. And now they have the added tonic of gaining international military influence which

If there were any way the Chinese leaders could maintain power while accepting lower economic growth that would likely result in a massive depression, they would gladly accept it. Trump may have just handed them a way. By insulting their people directly; by being utterly ignorant of their history and plight, he has done more to forestall actual political reform in China than almost anything else I can think of. The government of China will not be slow to capitalize on his gaff.

As usual, Trump has sacrificed the long term goals of the United States to his own personal interests.

MAGA, motherfuckers.

Latest Price & Chart for High Grade Copper
End of day Commodity Futures Price Quotes for High Grade Copper

China (30% world GDP) and the US (25% world GDP) together represent 55% of the world economy. Due to size alone, our economies are linked. The chart showing copper futures reflects slowing demand for a material that is used in just about eveything, from houses to cars to refrigerators to trivial consumer products. The inflection point where futures dropped from a high was exactly when Trump implemented his trade war. The big money people are expecting Trump's trade war to trigger a drop in the making of practically everything, otherwise known as a recession or worse, all due to Trump's trade war with China and other countries.

You are absolutely right that the people of China are quiet about social change due to improving economic conditions. From this source (link attached) Just 4 percent of urban Chinese households were within it (middle class) in 2000—but 68 percent were in 2012. Households in this income range, which we define as middle class, spend less than 50 percent of their income on necessities and display distinctive consumer behavior. Holy crap, that's a lot of people who have been moved into relative prosperity in the past decade. After the turmoil of the past 200 years in China, this era of prosperity must seem like a golden age to the older crowd. It's not as if the people of China have even traded freedoms for their prosperity. To those who knew the Mao years, it's not as if these days are repressive. On the other hand, their kids have only known the good times and they are not naive about China's government, nor its socially repressive ways.

Which brings us to what's next? Yes, a recession or worse is nigh. The US is going to get it in the neck by Trump's trade war boomerangs. He threw one boomerang at China, did some damage but it didn't stop there and it is circling back to hit us. Add to that the one he threw at Canada, one at Mexico and five or six at the EU. They are all going to come back to hit us.

Do you think China's propaganda machine focusing the people of China's ire on the US and will be enough to quell unrest when the Chinese economy goes into recession? I think the older people will stay loyal no matter what and they are the largest block so for a few more years, they will keep a lid on things. The younger people are (from what I've read) cynical about their government. I don't think they will buy into it and if the situation worsens, eventually the lid will blow off on government control.

China is already detaining millions in concentration camps. Could be the ruling oligarchy are ruthless enough to maintain control throughout. No matter what, we are in for a decade of recession followed by slower growth and political instability, not only in China but especially here and elsewhere.

"I'm the Most Bullied Person On the World"

Fogdog

Well-Known Member