Jobs Report A Sign Of Things To Come

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Are you? Maylee is correct, inflation isn't a problem at all ATM.

Not this again, supply and demand bro.
Maylee never said inflation wasn't a problem, maylee said there was NO INFLATION, but instead DEFLATION, which is 100% Hogwash.

Inflation has more to do with today's prices than supply and demand Mame. When they start QE3 your gonna see prices go up even more, it is inevitable. Keep watching the price of gold, every time it goes up, your dollar is worth just a little bit less.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
Maylee never said inflation wasn't a problem, maylee said there was NO INFLATION, but instead DEFLATION, which is 100% Hogwash.
He may have worded it incorrectly but the general assertion is correct. There is very little inflation ATM, with core inflation near 1%, which is below target... When QE3 happens it will be because of the threat of Deflation, not because Bernanke is some loon.

Inflation has more to do with today's prices than supply and demand Mame. When they start QE3 your gonna see prices go up even more, it is inevitable. Keep watching the price of gold, every time it goes up, your dollar is worth just a little bit less.
Gas prices went down recently didn't they? I predicted that selloff would happen because it was supply/demand pressures and that lower demand would eventually force prices back down... if it was inflationary wages would have kept up and gas would be $120+ atm. Wheat and corn have known supply issues (German Wheat shortages, U.S. Corn issues, etc), emerging markets are also causing strain on the demand side as more people join the world market, etc... Literally every price increase you listed can be explained as predominantly supply/demand.

You should really stop worrying so much about gold. It's been on the rise since forever, nothing will change that... Remember, without inflation there is no growth; The low and constant amount of inflation we've had in the last several decades is miles better than the Deflation we experienced on a gold standard... Milton Freidman knew this, and until 2008 most Republicans knew this... But now fiat money is the devil, Ron Paul is our savior and the Gold Standard is an oasis of sound economic development - the cure to our ails. Am I way off?
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Remember, without inflation there is no growth; The low and constant amount of inflation we've had in the last several decades is miles better than the Deflation we experienced on a gold standard...
LOL we had a lot of deflation eh? Did you know that for the first 130 years of the USA the value of an ounce of gold varied only 6 cents between it highest price and its lowest price? Gold is the most stable asset in the ENTIRE world and has been for more than 6000 years. Only during the gold standard(and Silver since it came first) were prices actually stable. Look at the prices of commodities during the gold and silver standards and you will find that they stayed pretty much the same over generations and generations. only after the industrial revolution did you start to see price declines, but it was more to do with efficiency than deflation. After 1933 there was no gold standard for the American Citizen, it was illegal to own it.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
LOL we had a lot of deflation eh? Did you know that for the first 130 years of the USA the value of an ounce of gold varied only 6 cents between it highest price and its lowest price? Gold is the most stable asset in the ENTIRE world and has been for more than 6000 years. Only during the gold standard(and Silver since it came first) were prices actually stable. Look at the prices of commodities during the gold and silver standards and you will find that they stayed pretty much the same over generations and generations. only after the industrial revolution did you start to see price declines, but it was more to do with efficiency than deflation. After 1933 there was no gold standard for the American Citizen, it was illegal to own it.
The graph I posted a couple back shows rate of change... there's a 14% drop in there, -6%, -12%, -9%, -10%, etc.... all the way up until we leave the Gold Standard; If gold itself was stable, cool, but the economy was in constant periods of deflation.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Where did you get your graph? Has the BLS ever changed the way they determine Inflation? Was the BLS even a functionary of government back in 1780? I think almost all of your data from the beginning of the graph until 1929 is total BS, no data exists to prove any of it. All of it is just Educated guessing. You cannot make a comparison since the way the government measures inflation has changed more than 20 times in the last 30 years. If your Yardstick's inches are 1 cm longer than my inches, your measurements are going to be completely different than mine wouldn't you agree? Conveniently your graph completely excludes the time period we are talking about, post 2008 crash until the present.

Deflation is NOT a bad thing mame, Deflation causes capital accumulation and resource conservation. Inflation causes economic slavery, reduced purchasing power and massive debt!
 

mame

Well-Known Member
Where did you get your graph? Has the BLS ever changed the way they determine Inflation? Was the BLS even a functionary of government back in 1780? I think almost all of your data from the beginning of the graph until 1929 is total BS, no data exists to prove any of it. All of it is just Educated guessing. You cannot make a comparison since the way the government measures inflation has changed more than 20 times in the last 30 years. If your Yardstick's inches are 1 cm longer than my inches, your measurements are going to be completely different than mine wouldn't you agree? Conveniently your graph completely excludes the time period we are talking about, post 2008 crash until the present.
It's from the link in Sync0s post in this thread, I'll repost the link here. I found it funny that it's one of those gold bug sites crying about the value of the dollar, figured I'd use one of their own graphs against you.

Deflation is NOT a bad thing mame, Deflation causes capital accumulation and resource conservation. Inflation causes economic slavery, reduced purchasing power and massive debt!
Deflation encourages people to hold onto their money rather than spend it, which depresses demand, which depresses investment, which depresses economic growth and ultimately hurts quality of living through depressed wages (as people lose their jobs, the supply of labor increases, pushing down wages). debts become harder to pay off.

Deflation isn't a bad thing? I think you're the only person I've ever seen argue this point, even among righties...
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Holding onto your money is called "Saving". Ever heard of it? Its ultimately how things get paid for.
 

jeff f

New Member
oh and I'm 22, not 19... Not that it matters, your perception is that I'm young and gullible or whatever... I'm used to it, people are always trying to marginalize my opinions based on my age; Sort of a kind of character assassination people usually bust out when the argument isn't going their way (I'm not saying that's what you're doing but whenever I go to family events or anything of the sort I'm marginalized as "just a kid").

i would say you have a very smart family. i would also say you are very intelligent but you lack any kind of real world business experience and your idols are great.....for professors who never did a fucking thing except brainwash little socialists.

other than that, props to your family and you would do better to learn from them rather than look down your elitist nose at them. you, nor your idols, are smarter than someone in their own succesful business...although you think you are.
 

jeff f

New Member
LOL we had a lot of deflation eh? Did you know that for the first 130 years of the USA the value of an ounce of gold varied only 6 cents between it highest price and its lowest price? Gold is the most stable asset in the ENTIRE world and has been for more than 6000 years. Only during the gold standard(and Silver since it came first) were prices actually stable. Look at the prices of commodities during the gold and silver standards and you will find that they stayed pretty much the same over generations and generations. only after the industrial revolution did you start to see price declines, but it was more to do with efficiency than deflation. After 1933 there was no gold standard for the American Citizen, it was illegal to own it.

so 6000 years of world history, thats ALL you bring to the argument? havent you read krugmans latest NYT article?

sarcasm? you figure it out.
 

jeff f

New Member
Fewer jobs, lower wadges and higher commodity prices. Think about this, if commodity prices rise (like gasoline, copper etc) and wadges and jobs fall you will have no inflation they will offset each other. But this does mean all is well, the average Joe getting poorer?

There is no signs of inflation if anything we are experiencing deflation. I am really baffled by the focus on inflation, I mean there are zero signs of this. If anything we could use a good shot of wage inflation right about now.

The dollars going to be worthless and the phony default crises.
Now if the US was about to default would not the short term 6 month treasuries be going for more than .03% yield? Before GM defaulted the yeild was like around 30% or something like that on GM bonds. You would want to be compensated for your risk right? But no, China, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, the list goes on, they have no problem with .03% yield. They all show up and buy our treasuries every week. In fact you know what happens every time the stock market has any fear, Treasury prices rally (not yield) because they are considered a safe haven, that's reality and what actually happens. The reason prices rise is supply and demand.


while my name isnt drugman, or krugman, isnt a worthless dollar a sign of inflation? if it cost me more money for the same product....
 

maylee

Member
The first part of my last post is terrible, not a very good explanation.
How about this...

You can go to any country of the world and pull out your real USD dollars and chances are they will take them. Everyone knows what a US dollar is, especially 100's. There is no other currency except in some cases the Euro you can do this with. I have been to a lot of different countries and this is true I guarantee you. The USD is the worlds reserve currency in actual fact. You can actually test this fact out yourself.

Salt the kind you sprinkle on french fries was at one time not so long ago used as commodity based currency just like gold. If I was to use a commodity to hold as currency it would be oil. My opinion on oil is ongoing price inflation is 99.99% guaranteed.

Think about this, you buy a house for 350K on a loan with a 5% APR interest rate on the home loan. which situation would you feel better about.

In ten years the house is worth 300K and your wages are ten percent less than they were ten years earlier.

or

Your house is worth 400K and your wages are ten percent more than they were ten years earlier.

The first is a deflationary scenario the second is an inflationary scenario, which is better?
 

jeff f

New Member
The first part of my last post is terrible, not a very good explanation.
How about this...

You can go to any country of the world and pull out your real USD dollars and chances are they will take them. Everyone knows what a US dollar is, especially 100's. There is no other currency except in some cases the Euro you can do this with. I have been to a lot of different countries and this is true I guarantee you. The USD is the worlds reserve currency in actual fact. You can actually test this fact out yourself.

Salt the kind you sprinkle on french fries was at one time not so long ago used as commodity based currency just like gold. If I was to use a commodity to hold as currency it would be oil. My opinion on oil is ongoing price inflation is 99.99% guaranteed.

Think about this, you buy a house for 350K on a loan with a 5% APR interest rate on the home loan. which situation would you feel better about.

In ten years the house is worth 300K and your wages are ten percent less than they were ten years earlier.

or

Your house is worth 400K and your wages are ten percent more than they were ten years earlier.

The first is a deflationary scenario the second is an inflationary scenario, which is better?
its impossible to tell which is better. what is the price of bread? electricity? fuel?

economics 101, rule 1, all things being equal, inflation example better. rule number 2, all things are never equal.

if the nitwits in the whitehouse get their way, you will be able to take that hundred dollar bill to any country on the planet and wipe someones ass with it.
 

redivider

Well-Known Member
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Strong second-quarter earnings from McDonald's, General Electric and Caterpillar on Friday are just the latest proof that booming profits have allowed Corporate America to leave the Great Recession far behind.
But millions of ordinary Americans are stranded in a labor market that looks like it's still in recession. Unemployment is stuck at 9.2 percent, two years into what economists call a recovery. Job growth has been slow and wages stagnant.
"I've never seen labor markets this weak in 35 years of research," says Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University.
Wages and salaries accounted for just 1 percent of economic growth in the first 18 months after economists declared that the recession had ended in June 2009, according to Sum and other Northeastern researchers.
In the same period after the 2001 recession, wages and salaries accounted for 15 percent. They were 50 percent after the 1991-92 recession and 25 percent after the 1981-82 recession.
Corporate profits, by contrast, accounted for an unprecedented 88 percent of economic growth during those first 18 months. That's compared with 53 percent after the 2001 recession, nothing after the 1991-92 recession and 28 percent after the 1981-82 recession.
What's behind the disconnect between strong corporate profits and a weak labor market? Several factors:
-- U.S. corporations are expanding overseas, not so much at home. McDonalds and Caterpillar said overseas sales growth outperformed the U.S. in the April-June quarter. U.S.-based multinational companies have been focused overseas for years: In the 2000s, they added 2.4 million jobs in foreign countries and cut 2.9 million jobs in the United States, according to the Commerce Department.
-- Back in the U.S., companies are squeezing more productivity out of staffs thinned by layoffs during the Great Recession. They don't need to hire. And they don't need to be generous with pay raises; they know their employees have nowhere else to go.
-- Companies remain reluctant to spend the $1.9 trillion in cash they've accumulated, especially in the United States, which would create jobs. They're unconvinced that consumers are ready to spend again with the vigor they showed before the recession, and they are worried about uncertainty in U.S. government policies.
"Lack of clarity on a U.S. deficit-reduction plan, trade policy, regulation, much needed tax reform and the absence of a long-term plan to improve the country's deteriorating infrastructure do not create an environment that provides our customers with the confidence to invest," Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman said.
Caterpillar said second-quarter earnings shot up 44 percent to $1 billion-- though that still disappointed Wall Street. General Electric's second-quarter earnings were up 21 percent to $3.8 billion. And McDonald's quarterly earnings increased 15 percent to $1.4 billion.
Still, the U.S. economy is missing the engines that usually drive it out of a recession.
Carl Van Horn, director of the Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, says the housing market would normally revive in the early stages of an economic recovery, driving demand for building materials, furnishings and appliances -- creating jobs. But that isn't happening this time.
And policymakers in Washington have chosen to focus on cutting federal spending to reduce huge federal deficits instead of spending money on programs to create jobs: "If we want the recovery to strengthen, we can't be doing that," says Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a research group that focuses on how government programs affect the poor and middle class.
For now, corporations aren't eager to hire or hand out decent raises until they see consumers spending again. And consumers, still paying down the debts they ran up before the recession, can't spend freely until they're comfortable with their paychecks and secure in their jobs.
Said Van Horn: "I don't think there's an easy way out."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/A-boom-in-corporate-profits-a-apf-3135711604.html?x=0
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Deflation encourages people to hold onto their money rather than spend it, which depresses demand, which depresses investment, which depresses economic growth and ultimately hurts quality of living through depressed wages (as people lose their jobs, the supply of labor increases, pushing down wages). debts become harder to pay off.
How much money do you invest when you have no money?
 

mame

Well-Known Member
How much money do you invest when you have no money?
Who has no money? The Federal government? They can borrow at rates so low it's ridiculous and you know that, in fact there hasn't been a better time for the US government to borrow in decades... Corporations? They're awash in cash and you know that too. There's plenty of money - what you advocate for, Deflation, will simply make the rich richer as they continue to cut jobs due to ever depressed demand.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Who has no money? The Federal government? They can borrow at rates so low it's ridiculous and you know that, in fact there hasn't been a better time for the US government to borrow in decades... Corporations? They're awash in cash and you know that too. There's plenty of money - what you advocate for, Deflation, will simply make the rich richer as they continue to cut jobs due to ever depressed demand.
Sorry bub, if the Government had money they would not have a deficit. The ability to borrow is only the ability to tax.
A government is instantly subverted and overthrown the instant it goes into debt. Why? Because a government in debt serves the lender, rather than serving the people. A government in debt has a conflict of interest! Anyone loaning money to the government should actually be guilty of treason, for having successfully overthrown and subverted the national interest of serving the people, first. I sincerely believe that a debt cap is not what the nation needs, although I believe it would be better than raising the debt ceiling as they always do. The nation needs a spending cap, and much more, it needs dramatic spending reductions.
 

jeff f

New Member
Who has no money? The Federal government? They can borrow at rates so low it's ridiculous and you know that, in fact there hasn't been a better time for the US government to borrow in decades... Corporations? They're awash in cash and you know that too. There's plenty of money - what you advocate for, Deflation, will simply make the rich richer as they continue to cut jobs due to ever depressed demand.
so who is going to pay off these terrifically low interest rates?

so if the rich cut jobs they get richer? wow, thats stupid.

if i have people working, providing my company cash flow, i get richer. i dont get any richer when i have no employees.

your whole socialists bullshit is so fucking distorted.

but keep towing the line.....someday you too can lay off all your workers and be a millionaire.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
so who is going to pay off these terrifically low interest rates?

so if the rich cut jobs they get richer? wow, thats stupid.

if i have people working, providing my company cash flow, i get richer. i dont get any richer when i have no employees.

your whole socialists bullshit is so fucking distorted.

but keep towing the line.....someday you too can lay off all your workers and be a millionaire.
I'm sure this is difficult for you to understand Jeff, but the rich have been getting richer despite high unemployment since the 08 crash at the very least.
 
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