July 4th 2019

doublejj

Well-Known Member
Those umbilici sort of put paid to "independence". I consider the small capacity and long, long charge times to be no small inconvenience.

The real problem is that I cannot make an economic argument for owning a Tesla. The 19" Long Range model with not many options is $90 000.
And (let's strip away the artifice and indirection of power subsidies for e-car users) the local marginal rate per kWh is $0.51.
85 kWh at that rate (and if you need juice you need it at once)is $43 bucks, and that'll take me less far (real-life range at 70mph is 323 miles for the 19" Long-Range Sedan model S) than $32 of fuel (and 6 minutes of my time to fill it) will take my Honda Fit which gets me 44 mpg local and 46-48mpg highway.

Granted, you won't wanna be stuck behind me.

But at which point does the Tesla compete effectively?

Also, you know the earthquake that hit SoCal today? Imagine the utilities are hosed for a week. What's the plan B then?


P.S. What about ICE air pollution? Clean air is enough good reason.
 

lokie

Well-Known Member
Those umbilici sort of put paid to "independence". I consider the small capacity and long, long charge times to be no small inconvenience.

The real problem is that I cannot make an economic argument for owning a Tesla. The 19" Long Range model with not many options is $90 000.
And (let's strip away the artifice and indirection of power subsidies for e-car users) the local marginal rate per kWh is $0.51.
85 kWh at that rate (and if you need juice you need it at once)is $43 bucks, and that'll take me less far (real-life range at 70mph is 323 miles for the 19" Long-Range Sedan model S) than $32 of fuel (and 6 minutes of my time to fill it) will take my Honda Fit which gets me 44 mpg local and 46-48mpg highway.

Granted, you won't wanna be stuck behind me.

But at which point does the Tesla compete effectively?

Also, you know the earthquake that hit SoCal today? Imagine the utilities are hosed for a week. What's the plan B then?
?
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus


P.S. What about ICE air pollution? Clean air is enough good reason.
To the latter: catalytic converters work.

To the former: I do not believe that those figures correctly show depreciation. How long were the cars owned and run (and resold) to establish the numbers behind the graph? When you start with a $90k car (vs. a $20-30k car like the Ford and Toyota) the depreciation after 4 years should exceed the full purchase price of the gassers.

Also, it figures in dishonest e-car subsidies. Those also need to be factored out for a useful comparison.

I reiterate: make the economic argument. How is a Tesla cheaper to acquire and operate than that Camry? Or my Honda that I wouldn't hesitate to take on a long road trip?
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
You can lease a new Tesla Model 3 today for $399 a month.
https://www.tesla.com/new/5YJ3E1EA1KF416102

My local power company's off peak rates are .09kwh
Off-peak
Midnight – 5 p.m.
$0.0969 kWh
All day weekends and holidays

Lets figure in how much the petroleum industries are subsidized?
A new study, the G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard, measured the US against other G7 countries on each country’s progress in eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. The US ranked the worst out of the G7 countries, spending over $26 billion a year propping up fossil fuels. (The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the US.)
I think EV subsidies are minuscule in comparison...and much more beneficial to our health
 

pabloesqobar

Well-Known Member
You can lease a new Tesla Model 3 today for $399 a month.
https://www.tesla.com/new/5YJ3E1EA1KF416102

My local power company's off peak rates are .09kwh
Off-peak
Midnight – 5 p.m.
$0.0969 kWh
All day weekends and holidays

Lets figure in how much the petroleum industries are subsidized?
A new study, the G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard, measured the US against other G7 countries on each country’s progress in eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. The US ranked the worst out of the G7 countries, spending over $26 billion a year propping up fossil fuels. (The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the US.)
I think EV subsidies are minuscule in comparison...and much more beneficial to our health
And yet . . .


You don't own one. Why do you hate the environment? You're a fraud.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
You can lease a new Tesla Model 3 today for $399 a month.
https://www.tesla.com/new/5YJ3E1EA1KF416102

My local power company's off peak rates are .09kwh
Off-peak
Midnight – 5 p.m.
$0.0969 kWh
All day weekends and holidays

Lets figure in how much the petroleum industries are subsidized?
A new study, the G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard, measured the US against other G7 countries on each country’s progress in eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. The US ranked the worst out of the G7 countries, spending over $26 billion a year propping up fossil fuels. (The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the US.)
I think EV subsidies are minuscule in comparison...and much more beneficial to our health
The red is irrelevant. All that shows up in the pump prce, so I'm paying my share of those $26B. With 268 million cars in the USA, that is a hit of $100 per vehicle.

Compare to he $7500 tx credit (a massive subsidy) for every e-car. And hat's not counting the bait&switch from the utility companies ... privileged rates for e-car users won't last forever.

$400 a month x 48 months = $19153 and you have NO car at the end of it. Show me purchase numbers; let's compare apples and apples.

My 6-year-old Honda was $17 k out the door (cash purchase). A Camry is $30k or so out the door.

Aftr 4 years, recovered value will be much higher for either gasser.

Also, my Honda burns 100% petroleum. In an e-car, I'd be using a significant fraction of coal (especially east of the Sierras) as the source of those kWh. Tell me again how clean a coal-burning car is.

Are EV subsidies per unit really smaller than for gassers?

And they're still not the tool for long trips or operating in a power outage.

Please make a real economic argument with the above stipulated. No sales talk like leasing, which is never a good idea if you want to save money. And no conveniently ignoring my most salient points:
range
coal
subsidies
oppressive charge times
the massive environmental cost of building an e-car (the cobalt, nickel, lithium etc. needed is being dirtily refined in China).

From engineer.com:

"Lithium production in South America doesn’t have so much to do with the element’s availability in the soil, but with water. The Andes mountains are very dry, but the lithium extraction process requires water in no small amount to bring the element up to the surface in a salty brine—500,000 gallons of water per ton of lithium, according to Wired. In some regions in Chile, 65 percent of water is used up in lithium production, diverting it from local food production. The brine then requires 12 to 18 months to evaporate. Any water returned to the farmers could be tainted with chemicals."

Tesla uses Panasonic batteries with lithium sourced by Albemarle. From their website:

"Albemarle operates two world-class raw material resources based on brine. One is located in the Salar de Atacama (Chile), and the other one in Clayton Valley near Silver Peak, Nevada (USA). The company also holds a 49% share in the spodumene mine of Talison Lithium in Australia. In addition, Albemarle owns a spodumene mine in Kings Mountain, NC, USA which is not in operation today. With these resources Albemarle has a superior position in terms of backward integration as well as security of supply."

For a simply fascinating read on how these notionally "green" cars seriously and adversely affect the natives of the lithium-bearing regions in South America (where over 50% of known lithium reserves reside) I suggest this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/tossed-aside-in-the-lithium-rush/?noredirect=on
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
Federal tax credit is $1875.....to purchase model 3 would be around $500 a month. Tesla's don't depreciate as much as ICE cars.
Less than 3 weeks ago, Michael Barnard conducted an analysis for CleanTechnicaexamining the resale value of the Tesla Model 3 compared to competitors. The conclusion was that the Model 3 was dramatically better at holding its value than other cars in its class.

More officially and robustly, Kelley Blue Book recently conducted its massive analysis of the resale value of all cars in the US.
After 36 months, the resale value of a used Tesla Model 3 was estimated to be 69.3% of its original price.

After 60 months, the resale value of a Model 3 was estimated to be 48.7% of its original price.
According to Kelley Blue Book, here are some winners in other classes:

  • Subaru Legacy = “Best Midsize Car” with the following resale values: 51.8% (36 mo); 38.4% (60 mo).
  • Lexus RC = “Best Entry-Level Luxury Car” with the following resale values: 54.5% (36 mo); 38.5% (60 mo).
  • Audi A7 = “Best Luxury Car” with the following resale values: 47.3% (36 mo); 32.3% (60 mo).
 
Last edited:

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Federal tax credit is $1875.....purchase model 3 would be around $500 a month. Tesla's don't depreciate as much as ICE cars.
Less than 3 weeks ago, Michael Barnard conducted an analysis for CleanTechnicaexamining the resale value of the Tesla Model 3 compared to competitors. The conclusion was that the Model 3 was dramatically better at holding its value than other cars in its class.

More officially and robustly, Kelley Blue Book recently conducted its massive analysis of the resale value of all cars in the US.
After 36 months, the resale value of a used Tesla Model 3 was estimated to be 69.3% of its original price.

After 60 months, the resale value of a Model 3 was estimated to be 48.7% of its original price.
According to Kelley Blue Book, here are some winners in other classes:

  • Subaru Legacy = “Best Midsize Car” with the following resale values: 51.8% (36 mo); 38.4% (60 mo).
  • Lexus RC = “Best Entry-Level Luxury Car” with the following resale values: 54.5% (36 mo); 38.5% (60 mo).
  • Audi A7 = “Best Luxury Car” with the following resale values: 47.3% (36 mo); 32.3% (60 mo).
The Model 3 has not been around for 4 years. Let's stick to established depreciation, not projections.

In any case, the case for e-cars being cleaner than gassers is dead. I'm not in favor of South American child labor and water theft.

So I was going to suggest buying one distinctly UNpatriotic. Unless you subscribe to the imperialist industrial robber-baron story of America, which is an indelible part of our history and national character. So, I have to give you that one. It's certainly the American way.

On subsidies: Until 190 days ago the subsidy was $7500. It will be gone in 2020, and that'll level the playing field some. Next step is to kill utility subsidies.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
The Model 3 has not been around for 4 years. Let's stick to established depreciation, not projections.

In any case, the case for e-cars being cleaner than gassers is dead. I'm not in favor of South American child labor and water theft.

So I was going to suggest buying one distinctly UNpatriotic. Unless you subscribe to the imperialist industrial robber-baron story of America, which is an indelible part of our history and national character. So, I have to give you that one. It's certainly the American way.

On subsidies: Until 190 days ago the subsidy was $7500. It will be gone in 2020, and that'll level the playing field some. Next step is to kill utility subsidies.
What Vehicles Currently Qualify for the Federal Credit? (As of January 2019)
Here are some popular models:



Electric Vehicles

Federal Tax Credit

BMW i3

$7,500

Chevrolet Bolt

$7,500 (1/1/19-3/31/19) ($3,750, 4/1/19-9/30/19. $1,875, 10/1/19-3/31/20)

Fiat 500e

$7,500

Ford Focus Electric

$7,500

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

$7,500

Kia Soul EV

$7,500

Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV

$7,500

Nissan Leaf

$7,500

Tesla Model 3

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Tesla Model S

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Tesla Model X

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Volkswagen e-Golf

$7,500





Plug-In Hybrids

Federal Tax Credit

Audi A3 e-tron

$4,205

BMW i3 with range extender

$7,500

BMW i8

$3,793

Chevrolet Volt

$7,500 (1/1/19-3/31/19) ($3,750, 4/1/19-9/30/19. $1,875, 10/1/19-3/31/20)

Chrysler Pacifica

$7,500

Ford C-Max Energi

$4,007

Ford Fusion Energi

$4,007

Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid

$7,500

Hyundai Ioniq Plug-In Hybrid

$4,543

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In Hybrid

$4,919

Kia Optima Plug-In

$4,919

Mini Countryman S E All4

$4,001

Toyota Prius Prime

$4,502

Volvo XC90 T8

$4,585



The U.S. Department of Energy maintains the entire list. You can sort by vehicle type or manufacturer.





Do Electric Vehicle Tax Credits Run Out?
Yes. The government is phasing out the electric vehicle tax credits as sales volume increases, on the theory that the high initial cost of adding new technology to a vehicle will come down as economies of scale improve with increased sales. That's supposed to eliminate the need for subsidies. The expiration date is separate for each manufacturer and only comes after an automaker sells 200,000 qualified vehicles. Tesla hit the milestone first in July 2018. As a result, Tesla vehicles delivered from January 1 to June 30, 2019, are only eligible for a federal credit of $3,750. Tesla vehicles delivered from July 1 to December 31, 2019, are eligible for a federal credit of $1,875. There are no federal tax credits for Tesla after that.




by Edmunds
January 28th, 2019
Share:
The Edmunds content team brings you industry-leading vehicle reviews, news and research tips that make it easier for you to find your perfect car.

Comments
Other research topics
ResearchBuyingLeasingSellingNewsMaintenanceAuto InsuranceSafetyFuel EconomyDriving TipsTechnologyHow To
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
What Vehicles Currently Qualify for the Federal Credit? (As of January 2019)
Here are some popular models:



Electric Vehicles

Federal Tax Credit

BMW i3

$7,500

Chevrolet Bolt

$7,500 (1/1/19-3/31/19) ($3,750, 4/1/19-9/30/19. $1,875, 10/1/19-3/31/20)

Fiat 500e

$7,500

Ford Focus Electric

$7,500

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

$7,500

Kia Soul EV

$7,500

Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV

$7,500

Nissan Leaf

$7,500

Tesla Model 3

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Tesla Model S

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Tesla Model X

$3,750 (1/1/19-6/30/19) ($1,875, 7/1/19-12/31/19)

Volkswagen e-Golf

$7,500





Plug-In Hybrids

Federal Tax Credit

Audi A3 e-tron

$4,205

BMW i3 with range extender

$7,500

BMW i8

$3,793

Chevrolet Volt

$7,500 (1/1/19-3/31/19) ($3,750, 4/1/19-9/30/19. $1,875, 10/1/19-3/31/20)

Chrysler Pacifica

$7,500

Ford C-Max Energi

$4,007

Ford Fusion Energi

$4,007

Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid

$7,500

Hyundai Ioniq Plug-In Hybrid

$4,543

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In Hybrid

$4,919

Kia Optima Plug-In

$4,919

Mini Countryman S E All4

$4,001

Toyota Prius Prime

$4,502

Volvo XC90 T8

$4,585



The U.S. Department of Energy maintains the entire list. You can sort by vehicle type or manufacturer.





Do Electric Vehicle Tax Credits Run Out?
Yes. The government is phasing out the electric vehicle tax credits as sales volume increases, on the theory that the high initial cost of adding new technology to a vehicle will come down as economies of scale improve with increased sales. That's supposed to eliminate the need for subsidies. The expiration date is separate for each manufacturer and only comes after an automaker sells 200,000 qualified vehicles. Tesla hit the milestone first in July 2018. As a result, Tesla vehicles delivered from January 1 to June 30, 2019, are only eligible for a federal credit of $3,750. Tesla vehicles delivered from July 1 to December 31, 2019, are eligible for a federal credit of $1,875. There are no federal tax credits for Tesla after that.




by Edmunds
January 28th, 2019
Share:
The Edmunds content team brings you industry-leading vehicle reviews, news and research tips that make it easier for you to find your perfect car.

Comments
Other research topics
ResearchBuyingLeasingSellingNewsMaintenanceAuto InsuranceSafetyFuel EconomyDriving TipsTechnologyHow To
My bigger issue is: What effect should there be from the fact that the demand for these cars is depriving the indigenous people of 2/3 or more of their total water supply, impoverishing them and causing the resource to be mined using child labor?

The social and environmental cost of cars using Tesla's tech is too high imo.
 

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
My neighbor was an insurance &
investment guy for 20 yrs. until the 2008 crash when his salary and commissions went to shit.

So he started driving a cab for his buddy's company. They bought 2 Teslas.

He says they're fast and fun to drive, but those guys put on more than 300 miles a day running people to the airport and all over the city. So unless you're only doing half a day, nobody wants to take them out.

And they didn't get the super charger thing that juices them fast so it takes hours to charge them.

They're nice, but they need a 500 mile range to be practical for cabbies.

He said he'd take me for a ride in one sometime this summer, I'm anxious to check one out.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
My bigger issue is: What effect should there be from the fact that the demand for these cars is depriving the indigenous people of 2/3 or more of their total water supply, impoverishing them and causing the resource to be mined using child labor?

The social and environmental cost of cars using Tesla's tech is too high imo.
I respectfully disagree my polar friend, the social and environmental cost of not using it are too high. Battery tech is growing at an amazing pace, soon they will contain only a fraction of the elements they contain today. And Teslas are made to be 100% recycled and the elements they contain will be captured and reused.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
My neighbor was an insurance &
investment guy for 20 yrs. until the 2008 crash when his salary and commissions went to shit.

So he started driving a cab for his buddy's company. They bought 2 Teslas.

He says they're fast and fun to drive, but those guys put on more than 300 miles a day running people to the airport and all over the city. So unless you're only doing half a day, nobody wants to take them out.

And they didn't get the super charger thing that juices them fast so it takes hours to charge them.

They're nice, but they need a 500 mile range to be practical for cabbies.

He said he'd take me for a ride in one sometime this summer, I'm anxious to check one out.
The new V3 Tesla superchargers give you 75 miles in 5min......1000 miles in 1hr. Don't cabbies get a lunch break?
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
He leaves early in the morning, comes home late at night.

Driving Pirates and Steelers around pays pretty good I guess. They usually drive Chrysler 300's. Always one in his driveway at night.
I'd like to see their fuel bill compared to a 20min loss of their average revenue....
 
Top