Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.

Lucky Luke said:
I'm In Aus. Its been pretty well contained so far considering our close ties with China. Im saying we should lift our travel bans (we got in real early on that) and let this thing do its thing. Have Corona parties and let our kids get it.
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For some reason kids are getting mild cases so they aren't at great risk. It's mainly killing people over 50 and people with health problems but it's hospitalizing many healthy young adult people too.
 
Lucky Luke said:
I'm In Aus. Its been pretty well contained so far considering our close ties with China. Im saying we should lift our travel bans (we got in real early on that) and let this thing do its thing. Have Corona parties and let our kids get it.
Click to expand...
Why? The way to stop it is to contain it. Why let it loose? I do believe we need to stop all travel for a few weeks...... will it stop? Doubt it but slowing it down would be a good thing so as to not over tax the healthcare systems.
 
Budley Doright said:
Why? The way to stop it is to contain it. Why let it loose? I do believe we need to stop all travel for a few weeks...... will it stop? Doubt it but slowing it down would be a good thing so as to not over tax the healthcare systems.
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There's no containing it anymore, it's too contagious with a long infectious incubation and can be spread by people without symptoms. Like you say, slow it down so the system isn't overwhelmed. A lot more people will die if the system is overwhelmed.
 
captainmorgan said:
There's no containing it anymore, it's too contagious with a long infectious incubation and can be spread by people without symptoms. Like you say, slow it down so the system isn't overwhelmed. A lot more people will die if the system is overwhelmed.
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According to one of our infectious disease experts who just returned from China, although draconian efforts, they have slowed it significantly. Your righ though, no stopping it but it also is not like the measles with one and done, this thing can infect multiple times if the reports I’ve read are true. I don’t think giving up and letting it loose is a wise thing as suggested.
 
Too many unknowns with this thing. It could fade away after this year or become a yearly seasonal illness. It could mutate into something less deadly or just the opposite. My fear is it subsides during warm weather like the flu but comes back in the fall even worse after people have let their guard down.
 
Remember kiddies .... when passing your joints around your homies !
And you get a “ wet “ blunt back ....

What a time to be alive !

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captainmorgan said:
Too many unknowns with this thing. It could fade away after this year or become a yearly seasonal illness. It could mutate into something less deadly or just the opposite. My fear is it subsides during warm weather like the flu but comes back in the fall even worse after people have let their guard down.
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That reproductive rate and the fact that it spreads while incubating before symptoms have manifest make it extremely likely this will catch.

We're starting to see better epidemiological data as well. There are 40,894 confirmed currently infected (likely significantly higher if it were possible to count nonconfirmed) of which 7,375 are in intensive care units (critical cases) which is 18%. This number is hard to rely on due to the difficulty in confirming all cases. There are likely thousands (if not tens of thousands) of unreported mild cases. So we have a maximum number. We know that the percentage of cases that become critical is not more than 18%.

The next piece of valuable epidemiological data we have going forward is similar. There are 48,181 confirmed cases that had outcomes. Of those, 3,053 were fatalities. This is about 6%, so we know that the fatality rate is at a maximum 6% but again, there were likely many more unconfirmed cases which were mild and unreported which resulted in recovery.
 
captainmorgan said:
This thing looks bad any way you look at it. The large number of people needing hospital care is the scary part, I can see the system getting overloaded very quickly. I have experience with a long hospital stay and what's involved, I was in a pretty good hospital and their staff was spread pretty thin.
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if the numbers are constant there will soon be 41mil americans sick enough to require hospitalization. This will swamp the system and people will die...
 
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