Recession over?

tnrtinr

tnrtinr

Well-Known Member
CrackerJax said:
Well, they aren't really prepared to make ONE currency. They are prepared to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Once upon a time the world currency was, the English Pound. Solid as the rock of Gibraltar.

Gone...... replaced by the dollar. It is quite conceivable that the dollar will be "pushed" aside. The only real loser is the USA ad perhaps Canada (who does 80% of all business with the USA).

Then we have the debts which will be called in (as is the debt holders right) IN THE NEW currency. Double whammy there. Not sure if it's legal, but at that point, the law will not be in our control.

At this point, the wealthy are just like everyone else. they are cutting back their spending. They are seeking tax shelters. They don't trust the near future. They are usually correct. One of the very reasons why they are wealthy (ahem).
Click to expand...
I have never seen an agreement that says you pay us with whatever currency we like. So if they call their debts they would be owed dollars - DEVALUED dollars. So if you have the balls to call your debt you will get the face value; but it will only be worth less than that.

I actually think that is what we are doing now. The US is protecting T-Bills by debasing the dollar. People are less inclined to redeem because they will see a loss. So they get filtered through the bond market instead at a discount.

China had a good thing going - but they are affected by the global financial crisis extra hard because their economy relies heavily on the US importing their goods. US consumption plummeting is killing their economy.

The world is full of greedy people. You have to ask yourself "who gains." The eminent collapse of the US financial system benefits NONE of them. While it may be nice to bop us over the head and steal some money, their long term wealth and prosperity is determined by the prosperity of the country because it determines the valuation of their accounts. Slaves with no work to do makes the master no money.
 
CrackerJax

CrackerJax

New Member
Agreements are broken all the time. Like I said, if it comes to the point of tossing the dollar aside, whose law will be applied? It's all about influence. The USA is losing that influence. It is losing international confidence.... this is a key point.

So let's say that the Chinese have been playing a long chess game with us and used our own greediness against us. It bought up our loans, it allowed us to run an import debt. They kept their currency tied to ours the entire time. Recently however, they have untethered it from the dollar.

Would there be financial carnage if the USA fell???? You are dang right there would be carnage.... BUT.... all things are relative to their proportion.

It would be like the USA jumping out of a 10 story building on FIRE along with China and others. The problem is the USA would have to jump from the ROOF and the rest jump out of the third floor.

Which nation do you think will be able to rise from the ashes to take the advantage?

Who's building a blue water navy at record speed?
Who's making resource deals with ANYBODY (regardless of human rights etc.) around the globe at record volume?
Who's keeping North Korea viable (they would have collapsed long ago)?
Who's supplying the Iranians with illegal oil and gas?

Who's playing chess?

Who's going to win?

Who's playing for keeps?
 
tnrtinr

tnrtinr

Well-Known Member
CrackerJax said:
Agreements are broken all the time. Like I said, if it comes to the point of tossing the dollar aside, whose law will be applied? It's all about influence. The USA is losing that influence. It is losing international confidence.... this is a key point.

So let's say that the Chinese have been playing a long chess game with us and used our own greediness against us. It bought up our loans, it allowed us to run an import debt. They kept their currency tied to ours the entire time. Recently however, they have untethered it from the dollar.

Would there be financial carnage if the USA fell???? You are dang right there would be carnage.... BUT.... all things are relative to their proportion.

It would be like the USA jumping out of a 10 story building on FIRE along with China and others. The problem is the USA would have to jump from the ROOF and the rest jump out of the third floor.

Which nation do you think will be able to rise from the ashes to take the advantage?

Who's building a blue water navy at record speed?
Who's making resource deals with ANYBODY (regardless of human rights etc.) around the globe at record volume?
Who's keeping North Korea viable (they would have collapsed long ago)?
Who's supplying the Iranians with illegal oil and gas?

Who's playing chess?

Who's going to win?

Who's playing for keeps?
Click to expand...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

Look who is first and who is last.

I guess the question is can China continue its growth without American demand, or investments / bond payments with devalued money?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/factory-closings-and-unrest-in-china.html

The people in Washington / Beijing are both making their moves with their own best interests in mind. We wont know who has who by the balls until they squeeze.
 
CrackerJax

CrackerJax

New Member
yes, that chart truly shows the carnage that awaits us. Most ppl are unaware or simply and incorrectly think the world will just keep floating us..... why??

China has already turned inward for economic growth. They are building themselves their OWN market. This is of great concern to the USA. If the Chinese can harness even just 1/3 of their population into a consumer machine, they will literally take off and leave us in the debt dust of our own making.

Time will tell. china has a plan and they seem to be sticking to it. They see a future where the USA is minimized and off the world playground. They may be right. They may pull it off.

The 21st century will be an Asian century. Make no mistake there.

I am already offshore with my assets. Guess where my money is growing? Asia, that's where. Away from the USA tort lawyers and regulations. Most of my associates have done the same.
 
Green Cross

Green Cross

Well-Known Member
CrackerJax said:
China has already turned inward for economic growth. They are building themselves their OWN market. This is of great concern to the USA. If the Chinese can harness even just 1/3 of their population into a consumer machine, they will literally take off and leave us in the debt dust of our own making.

Time will tell. china has a plan and they seem to be sticking to it. They see a future where the USA is minimized and off the world playground. They may be right. They may pull it off.

The 21st century will be an Asian century. Make no mistake there.

I am already offshore with my assets. Guess where my money is growing? Asia, that's where. Away from the USA tort lawyers and regulations. Most of my associates have done the same.
Click to expand...
1. China growth cannot be sustained without US exports.

2. The market is still down 30% for a reason. If there were a recovery the DJIA would be trading much higher, because the USD continues to be devalued.

Most thing if the market goes back to 14,000 they'll be even, because they don't even realize the USD will be worth 20% less than it was a year ago.

I believe we are far from recovery, but "recession" is only an economic term, evidenced by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

I also believe Obama and the fed, will bankrupt this country trying to stimulate this economy. Think $100 loaf of bread
 
CrackerJax

CrackerJax

New Member
I think number 1 is not entirely true. First of all, they will continue to take what they need from us trade wise, but it will be our volume of exports which will dwindle downwards, not theirs. China is building markets everywhere right now around the globe at an unprecedented rate. They are making preparations for the shift in power.

As far as the recession goes, yes, in and of itself the recession is not that bad and cannot sink us. But what is sinking us is our ever increasing debt and the govt. program massive debt ratios that are getting to the point where the USA is going to default.

At some point, all the numbers point to a default. This is what the Chinese see... correctly I might add.

It's just a matter of time. Can we turn it around? I used to think so, but with the policies being set in place now, any recovery will be a temporary reprieve. The crisis' will just start cresting over our credit walls like a category 5 hurricane. At some point there will be a breach. It's just a matter of when, not if.
 
tahoe58

tahoe58

Well-Known Member
yea with number one ... the Chinese posted annual like numbers for auto sales earlier this summer in their MONTHLY posting of sales volume. I believe their capacity to grow an internal and further develop other developing markets will make the US consumption of less importance ...

I think in terms of the bigger picture either commonly gheld theory will no longer apply or we are in for some real pain. I have my own personal sitaution that on a very different scale showed me the pain of overlveraged and suffocating debt.

The toughest question I have is if the US$ defaults and is lost as a "world" currency .... who/what steps up to hte plate? I've heard everything from a basket to a global currency ... but that has to be decades away doesn't it ... something like that doesn't/can't change overnight ..... or is that unreaslistic?:eyesmoke::eyesmoke::eyesmoke::eyesmoke::eyesmoke:
Green Cross said:
1. China growth cannot be sustained without US exports.

2. The market is still down 30% for a reason. If there were a recovery the DJIA would be trading much higher, because the USD continues to be devalued.

Most thing if the market goes back to 14,000 they'll be even, because they don't even realize the USD will be worth 20% less than it was a year ago.

I believe we are far from recovery, but "recession" is only an economic term, evidenced by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

I also believe Obama and the fed, will bankrupt this country trying to stimulate this economy. Think $100 loaf of bread
Click to expand...
CrackerJax said:
I think number 1 is not entirely true. First of all, they will continue to take what they need from us trade wise, but it will be our volume of exports which will dwindle downwards, not theirs. China is building markets everywhere right now around the globe at an unprecedented rate. They are making preparations for the shift in power.

As far as the recession goes, yes, in and of itself the recession is not that bad and cannot sink us. But what is sinking us is our ever increasing debt and the govt. program massive debt ratios that are getting to the point where the USA is going to default.

At some point, all the numbers point to a default. This is what the Chinese see... correctly I might add.

It's just a matter of time. Can we turn it around? I used to think so, but with the policies being set in place now, any recovery will be a temporary reprieve. The crisis' will just start cresting over our credit walls like a category 5 hurricane. At some point there will be a breach. It's just a matter of when, not if.
Click to expand...
 
tahoe58

tahoe58

Well-Known Member
and in general support for the notion that there are other folks that see the potential "market" laying in wait in China, Ferrari also seems to think the China is an important market ... (many thank to autoblog.com)
​


​
Ferrari 599 HGTE China Limited Edition – Click above for high-res image gallery​

It wasn't so long ago that the idea of seeing an exotic Italian sportscar in mainland China was as much an anathema as a Chinese car in America. But the times, as one Mr. Dylan sang, they are a-changin.' Today, China is one of Ferrari's most important markets, where the red Prancing Horse shares the streets with the Red Dragon. To mark that relationship, Ferrari has announced a special edition exclusively for the Chinese market.



Based on the 599 GTB Fiorano with the company's new Handling GTE package, the China Limited Edition has been updated with special touches designed by Chinese artist Lu Hao: the starter button glows jade green, the tachometer features ancient Chinese characters instead of the usual numerals, and the luggage is emblazoned with a map of the Silk Road taken by the famous Italian explorer Marco Polo. The Rosso Fuoco paintjob with the gray roof mimics the 599XX, and only a dozen examples will be made – with over a billion people in the market, we're betting they'll be snapped up fast. Check it out in the high-res image gallery below.
 
tahoe58

tahoe58

Well-Known Member
there's a regular 599gtb down the street from me .... 620hp V12 ..... musak to my ears .... to me it all a mechanical symphony. I'm no engineer, but in the F1 of today, internal combustion engines running 20,000rpm, astonishing feat of control. There's a lot of money in Calgary ... and big egos too .... MC12 Maserati, Enzo's, and I've also seen a 430 Scuderia ....
 
CrackerJax

CrackerJax

New Member
Sweet. I've never gone for fast cars much myself, although growing up all my cousins had the fast cars of the day. Every time i went to see them, it was GTO, or Challenger, or Shelby..... they just kept buying and selling those muscle cars. I think it was my oldest cousins driving that cured me of going fast..... :lol: he was a nut behind the wheel!!

I'm a truck kind of guy. I always drive a 350 dually diesel lariat Ford. I keep a 4X4 250 diesel as my back up.

I still love the fast cars.... I just won't buy them. Closest I got was a tricked up Triumph TR3 roadster with bored out pistons.

My wife convinced me my license was more important. :lol:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top