BarnBuster
Virtually Unknown Member
You've got what, decades before you retire? Like C4 says, talk with a RIA and make sure you are diversified and you should be fine.
stock market, jobs, economy all plummeting under trump
- Thread starter UncleBuck
- Start date
A 401k is a long term investment. If you are not going to retire anytime soon then increasing your contributions was the correct thing to do to take advantage of this downturn. Too a long term investor this is essentially a non-event, just something to talk about and spend time searching for bargains.
see4
Well-Known Member
Experts who actually know what they are talking about are saying something slightly different.
Regardless of the fact. Trump inherited a booming economy with a steady growth in GDP and a relatively subdued inflationary rate. He then made the entire planet lose confidence in the US dollar, slowed growth, made inflation grow faster than it should have, and then introduced a tax cut for the wealthy sending even more signals of uncertainty through all markets. We are seeing corrections, market volatility and soon a bearish market.
What do you think happens in a volatile market? Economic growth is stymied, that's what.
And your penis is tiny.
Do you not know the difference between "too" and "to"? That's pretty basic stuff dude.
SneekyNinja
Well-Known Member
You said it was a buying opportunity right before a 10% drop...
Ergo, you're an idiot, no-one wants your advice.
Lol, she doesn't have a 401k.
She works for minimum wage and commission and had to default on 12k of college debt.
I'm sure it's in bonds. I've never set it up distribution..with that knowledge where would you put it?
I'm going to bookmark this conversation for a PM perhaps? I have demographic that I don't wish to advertise. I used to be very aggressive but I'm older now with less in.
BarnBuster
Virtually Unknown Member
sure
my company matches 100% up to 3% which I was already doing, then i added 2% because they match 50%..not bad 4% total on 5%. No sense in leaving money on the table.
If you are not interested in actively managing your 401k, IMO then just put it all in target date fund. That’s why they exist.
Your company has good matches.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
down another 400 points again so far today. you trumptards had better hope for a rally, and the magical non-volatility fairy
Mutual Fund Co guru Byron Wien (Blackstone Funds):
There won't be a recession, but this market sell-off isn't over yet
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/blackstones-wien-there-wont-be-a-recession-but-this-market-sell-off-isnt-over-yet.html
I'm hoping it reverses at around 22000 on the DOW. It would be like a fire sale on equities. Prepare for more red next week!
There won't be a recession, but this market sell-off isn't over yet
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/blackstones-wien-there-wont-be-a-recession-but-this-market-sell-off-isnt-over-yet.html
I'm hoping it reverses at around 22000 on the DOW. It would be like a fire sale on equities. Prepare for more red next week!
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Fogdog
Well-Known Member
This article from
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/the-debt-time-bomb-that-keeps-growing-and-now-equals-nearly-half-of-u-s-gdp.html
Was published toward the end of November.
"Corporate debt is at its highest level relative to U.S. GDP since the financial crisis , and while not now a concern, that mountain of corporate IOUs could quickly turn into a heap of worry under the right circumstances.
Low rates have encouraged companies to borrow, but instead of using the money to expand, they have used it to boost their share prices, he said."
Do you really believe that the underlying world economy is growing and strong? What reason can you give for that belief? Past results, perhaps? The soothing words of a paid-for-by-the-banks analyst, perhaps? Your own research? (just kidding, you are free of original thought). Recall that past results don't predict future profits.
Trump's policies are both inflationary and recessionary. The smart money sees this and isn't buying -- literally.
When companies take on large amounts of debt, they become more vulnerable to small changes in the economy. We are already seeing investment groups being wiped out by heavy bets that volatility would stay low. The next shoe to drop are companies caught wrong-footed by changes in interest rates. How many companies are loaded with debt? Most are:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/the-debt-time-bomb-that-keeps-growing-and-now-equals-nearly-half-of-u-s-gdp.html
Was published toward the end of November.
"Corporate debt is at its highest level relative to U.S. GDP since the financial crisis , and while not now a concern, that mountain of corporate IOUs could quickly turn into a heap of worry under the right circumstances.
Low rates have encouraged companies to borrow, but instead of using the money to expand, they have used it to boost their share prices, he said."
Do you really believe that the underlying world economy is growing and strong? What reason can you give for that belief? Past results, perhaps? The soothing words of a paid-for-by-the-banks analyst, perhaps? Your own research? (just kidding, you are free of original thought). Recall that past results don't predict future profits.
Trump's policies are both inflationary and recessionary. The smart money sees this and isn't buying -- literally.
When companies take on large amounts of debt, they become more vulnerable to small changes in the economy. We are already seeing investment groups being wiped out by heavy bets that volatility would stay low. The next shoe to drop are companies caught wrong-footed by changes in interest rates. How many companies are loaded with debt? Most are:
- At 45.3%, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at historical highs, having recently surpassed levels preceding the last two recessions.
see4
Well-Known Member
It's really tough to say.
Bonds is a very conservative hedge. So it sounds like you are in a conservative growth fund. And it doesn't sound like you are very diversified.
If you don't mind me asking, how much dependency do you have on your 401k as part of your retirement plan? How long have you been paying towards it?
Also, is there a way you can check what sort of returns you've been making over the past 5 years?
Do any of your funds have a Morningstar Rating?
A target fund may be an ok option if you want to play it very conservative. Probably not good if you are looking for more aggressive growth.
I'll get the info and PM you. There's not much, I've just started. It would be great to do 'catch-up' provision.
Bugeye
Well-Known Member
Friday afternoon short cover rally, imo. Not sure we've seen bottom yet, Monday will be interesting. Good luck if you're day trading this shit!
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
You claim that this is "just a correction" and then talk about minute-by-minute market changes. You don't have a clue.
It doesn't matter what happened today or yesterday, even. The market might be up next week or it might be down, what you are missing is: We don't have the important bit of information -- how many and which companies will default due to debt stress brought on by rising interest rates? We won't know this for a few more months, maybe not until September. Today's market volatility is due to this unknown.
Debt driven recessions are the worst, by the way.
greg nr
Well-Known Member
The problem is, trump is an idiot. He supercharged a hot economy with tax cuts, which will raise interest rates. He is also planning a 1.5 trillion dollar infrastructure plan where the guv will only contribute $250 B in actual funds. That means states and private industry will have to issue bonds to raise the rest of the money. That will also raise interest rates.
If interest rates rise, money will have another place to go. Investors hate cash right now. It's next to worthless. As soon as the market levels off, it goes right back in.
If interest rates rise, and infrastructure spending causes a lot of high quality bonds (many interest free) to start competing for investment, the market will fall, and not by a little. A trillion dollars will move.
But higher interest rates will hurt consumer spending, which will hurt revenues.
We might end up looking back fondly at 2007.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Comparing what's happening today with 2007 seems a bit extreme to me. That said, agree that inept administration, rising inflation, interest rate rises, low corporate profitability, high rate of corporate debt and years of low income growth along with high debt among wage earners/consumers sounds like a recipe for a nasty recession. I think today's market "correction" is a symptom of investment money moving away from stocks in anticipation of recession 6-10 months hence. But then again, what do I know compared to @gonnagro?
If I were cynical, I'd say that recession will be delayed until after the election this fall.
awesome post!
and yes, trump IS an idiot. I can totally see this happening..the issue is..who HAS money to spend NOW? people are tired of 2-3 jobs..you're in a corporate role, are you guys doing good?