The Long March to 11/24

Fogdog said:

Not disagreeing with your thesis in its conclusion but perhaps the degree to which we change as we age is overstated.

For myself and from what I've read about you, I don't think either of us have changed much over time in the way we view politics. Maybe we've mellowed but I don't think we've changed. Not saying that proves anything but our personal history does not align with the idea that people just naturally become more conservative and therefore change politically from Democrat to Republican. It didn't happen with my parents or brothers either.

There isn't a lot of good research available from a simple google search. I did come across this abstract:

Do People Really Become More Conservative as They Age?

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/706889

"Folk wisdom has long held that people become more politically conservative as they grow older, although several empirical studies suggest political attitudes are stable across time. Using data from the Michigan Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, we analyze attitudinal change over a major portion of the adult life span. We document changes in party identification, self-reported ideology, and selected issue positions over this time period and place these changes in context by comparing them with contemporaneous national averages. Consistent with previous research but contrary to folk wisdom, our results indicate that political attitudes are remarkably stable over the long term. In contrast to previous research, however, we also find support for folk wisdom: on those occasions when political attitudes do shift across the life span, liberals are more likely to become conservatives than conservatives are to become liberals, suggesting that folk wisdom has some empirical basis even as it overstates the degree of change."

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Bagginski said:

People “get more conservative” as they get older because they come to realize how fragile are the gains made during their lives; not wanting to destroy what you’ve spent your life on is wholly human - and is *literally* conservative at its most true…but it has nothing to do with the fear, anger, and fake ‘tribal pride’ that passes for normal among our modern political conservatives

The shift in the dynamic from creative to preservative is just the ‘color’ of older/wiser.

POLITICAL conservatism OTOH is driven by biology; specifically, sex hormones (bear w/ me)

As we age, sex hormones are harder to get & keep; women’s bodies produce less estrogen, men’s bodies produce less testosterone. These changes have obvious physical effects, but the more profound changes are emotional - but that’s still downstream a bit. Reduced estrogen in women translates directly into mood & behavior, & many women experience the de-facto testosterone BOOST as liberating, empowering, augmenting & resilient. Men have it somewhat worse in that declining testosterone production is made severe by conversion of remaining test to estrogen.

Yes, you read that right. Not only does test production fall off a cliff in our 40s (& off another cliff in our 60s), but along with it, our bodies convert free testosterone into estrogen. Our balance - our emotional center of gravity - shifts. Now, think about emotions, states of mind & perception & behavior we associate with males & females, being DRIVEN by the constantly shifting balance between the two prime steroids.

There aren’t any tricks here, this is basic physiology…but boy howdy, it influences behavior. In a nutshell, women tend to become more assertive, less ‘flexible’, more determined, more self-directed (my grandmother was a classic example); men, to the contrary, begin to get lost in their feelings, begin worrying about the future, start to wonder what’s happening to them.

These changes can make men feel afraid of changes, of things being different, because they have no idea how to navigate that soup. After a lifetime of testoterone-fueled confidence and exuberance, they seriously wonder what’s going on. The habits of a lifetime point them OUTSIDE THEMSELVES for causes, and that uncertainty, that new balance inclines them to focus on “problems ‘out there’” as the sources of their fears.

Fear is a tricky state for men to occupy because they’ve been proving they’re not afraid all their lives; every man learns NOT to display fear ‘cause it attracts predators (“like YOU used to be, old-timer!”). The most common reaction to this quandary is ANGER, as in lashing out at the things/people/events that seem to stimulate those bad feelings. ANY of us can write the rest of that story for ourselves, & other men will nod in understanding

So. Let’s take Mr Magoo here: how does his personal development go from this point? He’s no longer master of his particular soup-mix (physiologically), he’s no history of reflection or self-examination except in specific male-role kinda ways, he doesn’t feel safe talking about what’s going on in him because he’s afraid of how others would react. Most commonly, he’ll find things to do that distract him, that take his focus off HIMSELF, that allow him the comfort of distance from his afflictions: hobbies, sports, current events, religion, family

before you know it, you have a bunch of guys, all in more or less the same boat, all going through roughly the same transitions, all not knowing how, all trying to not shame themselves, all avoiding anything that twinges their uncertainties - all looking for things to talk about, others to hold accountable, honorable recipients of their blame. They gripe about traffic, about women, about their families, about the news.

It’s around here where we go off the rails. Before Trump & MAGA & general free-floating insanity, we’d’ve complained about our bosses, about society, about our families, our businesses, our churches. Honest curmudgeonly crankiness, w/ more and/or less grace here & there. Your ‘native conservative’.

MAGA & the overthrow have weaponized all that. The fear AND the rage, the uncertainty AND the iron-headed conviction, the *need* to act, the righteousness of the cause - the details lost in a blind fog of rage @ the unlimited injustices AGAINST *YOU*, MISTER!!

“No one EVER treated so unfairly. It’s because I’m standing up for you…I’m doing this FOR YOU”

Really, how can you *NOT* love Big Brother, eh?
HE’S DOING IT FOR *YOU*

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Bagginski said:

Look @ me not disagreeing!

There’s a reason I put it together the way I did, that reason is the fact that I’m *both* as liberal AND as conservative as I’ve ever been, and the same is & has been true for most everyone I’ve ever known…and I deliberately DID NOT say we become MORE POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, and I discussed why separately (tho perhaps not as well as I’d wished).

TL;DR = I have been guided by principles my whole life; this principles are not fundamentally different now than they were 50+ years ago - tho I’ve been called a flaming liberal and a thick-headed conservative many times each…but my principals have only deepened, sharpened, clarified. My bend toward becoming more conservative has to do with what I leave behind, who I leave it to, ‘cleaning up after myself’ before someone else has to, & how to make such peace as I may w/ those who will permit it.

NONE OF THAT has *anything* to do with “my politics”, or anyone else’s, except that “my politics” comes directly out of my own real observations, my own real lived experience, & good old-fashioned REAL research of the hard work variety

I’ll stop here: it shouldn’t be that hard to triangulate if you think about it

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printer said:

I have been fiscally conservative my whole life along with being liberally minded. Same way I can be anti-war but want all the equipment to go to Ukraine that it needs to win its war.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

It's that programmed association, to be fiscally responsible you must be conservative, and the left are spendthrifts who give taxpayer (not citizen) money to the poor. Right and left are really economic philosophies that are often linked with political positions. But in the present situation the conservatives are liars with no character and no policy, and they are fiscally irresponsible. Meanwhile the democrats are fiscally responsible, socially liberal and have a plan and policies. Political labels have become kinda meaningless, conservatives are now rabid radicals and anti democratic with no values whatsoever. The term schweinhund applies to anybody who supports them, the stink is so bad that to associate with them is to get some on you.

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cannabineer said:

That assumption has been swept away by Reaganomic “spend but don’t tax” voodoo economics. We’re waay past that core assumption being exploded.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

Yet it persists in the media and with the public according to polling, but the same polling shows that they think Trump would be better for the economy etc.

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cannabineer said:

to bolded one, links.
to bolded two, polls are not news.

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Fogdog said:

Maybe I'm misinformed about the political shift going on right now in Europe, where unions have an official role in setting wages in their industries, government provided healthcare is the norm and gun ownership is well regulated. Near as I can tell, today's US Republicans, with their support for fascism, thirst for cutting access to the ballot box for those who would disagree with them and their agreement with their leader's attempt to overthrow the government, near as I can tell, they are far, far to the right of what in Europe calls "right". They make a European righty seem leftist to somebody in the US.

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Fogdog said:

At every poll that matters recently,

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Sativied said:

"That's just your worldview" a wise old man with a narrow worldview told me a very long time ago.

I don't always rant but when I do...


Maybe underinformed, clearly not misinformed. Our right is indeed more left than your right. Even for some anti-immigration parties labelled far-right in EU it's a misnomer. I doubt there's any far-right in Europe that opposes affordable or government sponsored healthcare. I'm not sure the actual nazis and fascists ever opposed it. The heartless US healthcare system and gun laws are not right and not "right". I lost meaningful relationships early because of it. It's sick. You should all go out in the streets and stop working like the French would. Today. But yeah, unions. If it weren't for unions, our minimum wage would be as outrageous low as yours. Pretty sure far-right here doesn't want to end unions here either.

So if you're suggesting that Europe is pretty left with unions and healthcare and sensible gun laws and the shift to the right is more like a shift to your center or center-right, then I wish that was true. We unfortunately moved beyond that point. We're talking deporting people, not just closing borders. People who think the US southern border situation is bad should look at the Mediterranean Sea. Pretty sure drowning kids 'trumps' separating them from their parents.

Every time I saw a Brit here or elsewhere complain about Boris Johnson, about him being their Trump, I shook my head in disagreement. That's like comparing covid to lung cancer. It's of a different level. I get it. That relative shift on the spectrum, something Luke (gone?) pointed out a few times too, applies to the righty yes, but not the far-righty.

The reason I was slightly displeased with your post is because you explained the value of polls to me, and then... well, the word that came to mind is Americansplained. Which is not as as bad and misplaced as DIY Canadiansplaining the US to me, but still, "slightly displeased".

But yes, you picked that up correctly: too passive. IMHO, no disrespect or judgement whatsoever. You're basically saying it's worse in the US than in the EU, yet you're concerned but not alarmed. Something doesn't add up. Why are you not alarmed? There's either a government that's not far-right, or there's no government, no authority, nothing.

Re: conservatives and youth. The difference between a few decades ago and now is the source of info. Conservativism often came from people with seniority, nowadays the source is contemporaries. Random example: one of most popular hot dutch girls is a speedskater, her boyfriend an american youtuber, who invited Ramaswamy for a tiktok session. Stupid youngsters repeat that shit like it's trendy. It resonates. Suddenly kids care about abortion. wtaf. It's not what their progressive parents thought, the stuff that led to the current world, it's the new 'progressive'.

Young generations being woke, progressive, left, is received wisdom.

Let's take the most left socialistic liberal - source of all liberal thought in Europe and by extension rest of the world (I'm heavily exaggerating) - country of Europe, where unions rule and health care is socialistic and early government sponsored retirement is a birth right: France. If it weren't for 30 and younger, far-right would not be a factor. In Belgium, NL, Austria, Portugal and a whole bunch of others, same thing, far-right would not be a a growing threat without 30 and younger. Not right. Far-right. Fascism/fascist. A word I feel you use more loosely than I, whether it's in regards to the US, EU, or Israel. I am alarmed alright.

When you say it's in the US mostly old white folk, it's almost as if you're making a case for american exceptionalism. Personally, I think you're just like europeans, same as canada, the western world, where the situation that new and young generations are automatically 'left' is coming to an end.

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The politics of American generations: How age affects attitudes and voting behavior

Among U.S. adults, different age cohorts have markedly different political profiles, but the relationship is considerably more complex than young people leaning liberal and older people being more conservative.

www.pewresearch.org

Fogdog said:

The whole world seems to feel entitled to comment on the US

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Fogdog said:

People love [polls] though. Like you, they want to talk about them. I want to be polite but that's not really my strong suit.

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Fogdog said:

But I don't think that we are growing a large group of under 30 fascists in the US. From what Pew shows us, there is a (to me) shockingly large number of "young outsiders", who Pew Research describe as "GOP leaners who favor limited government but are socially liberal. " Not the same as fascist but maybe that's where today's MAGA started. IDK. But I'm not going to worry too much about that either.

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Sativied said:

Nothing wrong with being blunt, as long as it's truthful. I mentioned conflicting polls between parentheses for good reasons. I did not attach anywhere near as much significance to polls nor talked about it as much as you are fantasizing. Polls by itself mean nothing, but nobody reads just polls in a vacuum. Only reason I posted the 538 polls above is because of your "at every poll that matters...".

"What would you have me do?"
Consider the possibility that it's not a given that the young remain on your side by default and it's not just old white folk, and, not in a forum dismiss me questioning the truth value of your initial statement with contradicationary beating around the bush. Hey, you asked...

The reason I mentioned American exceptionalism is because you among others established that myth broke with Trump, that it's nationalistic nonsense. If you can count on the youth to remain progressive cause they're not old and all white, you're starting to look pretty special. I meant no offense. My point was "realizing such exceptionalism is unlikely, why are you so sure this will be any different in the US besides polls?" I wasn't projecting the situation in NL, I don't see the relevance of you knowing our PM or not. See Germany, Sweden, France (40-50% young vote for Le Pen, and rising), Denmark, Austria, ultra-conservatives in Spain. Aka Europe, specifically the parts most like US (and vice versa...). It's no longer dumb old white men but far more dangerous: educated young intellectuals. Not loud sheep, wolves. Fascist with brains, not guns.

This doesn't add up:
1. The threat is way larger in the US, the fascists are far more fascists, Proud Boys...
2. "Why do you want me to worry?" (Not that that was my goal or a desire I'd have but ok...) Biden will win.

The point of comparing the misery seems to be the idea that it's less likely to happen in the US. Because for youngsters to switch to the right in the US it would mean they'd have to go from your left to far-right and not, like you wrongly assumed is the case in Europe, from left to (center-)right and not to far-right. I combined real world situations with polls and studies. You dismissed it with a false assumption and conflicted polls you suggest I love. Not polite indeed, slightly displeasing.


So GOP = fascist but young voters who vote GOP in the binary option are not fascist. It's strange when you arbitrarily valuate and interpret polls with bias and then suggest I should read polls in a certain way, consider it's just the media, and oh polls mean nothing.

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