The renewable energy changes and policy

cannabineer said:

The market is prone to manipulation.

The example I remember is about video formats. Beta is better engineering, but VHS was aggressively marketed. Not a lot of beta in garage sales.

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They are in the race like everybody else and costs per watt wins, so far solar and storage look like they are gonna win. However, we will need all the green power sources we can get, but if solar and storage keep going the way they are they should eventually dominate the market.

DIY-HP-LED said:

We will end up doing what is economical, accountants rule the world.

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Accountants told Wilbur that his airplane was never going to be profitable. Which was not wrong but missed the point.

That said, I thought the video you posted was pretty good. It was a good explanation for why we probably shouldn't depend on geo for more than a single digit bite out of the total world energy supply that will have to be converted away from fossil fuels.

DIY-HP-LED said:

They are in the race like everybody else and costs per watt win, so far solar and storage look like they are gonna win. However, we will need all the green power sources we can get, but if solar and storage keep going the way they are they should eventually dominate the market.

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If costs (over the long term; no pirate economics) really we’re the main factor, nobody anywhere would be burning coal.

cannabineer said:

Even if their process hits every r&d mark, it may not be economical. They need to demonstrate that the deep wells keep operating at high power for years. Iirc making a single borehole uses monstrous amounts of energy. I have doubts about energy in vs. out.

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I think it looks like a less viable thing than it did even 6 months ago, solar appears to be all the rage due to several of those recent international energy reports that governments use.

Fogdog said:

Accountants told Wilbur that his airplane was never going to be profitable. Which was not wrong but missed the point.

That said, I thought the video you posted was pretty good. It was a good explanation for why we probably shouldn't depend on geo for more than a single digit bite out of the total world energy supply that will have to be converted away from fossil fuels.

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It's in the politics section so people can make informed decisions about policy and this policy battle is vital to the energy and technological security of the west. Joe's green and industrial policies are not some liberal pipe dream but absolutely vital to America's future and independence.

Fogdog said:

I think the Chinese government's need for control will stifle the kind of innovation it needs to compete in the rapidly changing field of energy storage. I don't have anything specific to point at other than the US has neglected this sector and let a lot of the tech we develop migrate (sold, given and stolen) to China for commercialization. Not any more. We'll see if they can keep up, now that the US and its Western partners have decided to focus on developing their own capabilities in this sector.

I have mad respect for the Chinese scientists and innovators and have been privileged to work next to many throughout my career in the US. But authoritarian societies and governments value control above all else. They control their innovators to death.

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They followed the Japanese model of the 50s with transistor technology, American companies were making expensive ones for the military and the Japanese developed mass-produced ones for the consumer market and markets for components etc. This was a MITI government policy after the Sony guys brought the transistor to Japan. They anticipated the changes in electronics technology and supported the industry to fruition in a fiercely competitive domestic market first. The US allowed this mercantilist policy for Japan and Korea as part of the cold war effort to make strong allies and leverage cheap labor. Intellectual property laws were given a pass by America too as the technology developed.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

They followed the Japanese model of the 50s with transistor technology, American companies were making expensive ones for the military and the Japanese developed mass-produced ones for the consumer market and markets for components etc. This was a MITI government policy after the Sony guys brought the transistor to Japan. They anticipated the changes in electronics technology and supported the industry to fruition in a fiercely competitive domestic market first. The US allowed this mercantilist policy for Japan and Korea as part of the cold war effort to make strong allies and leverage cheap labor. Intellectual property laws were given a pass by America too as the technology developed.

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My experience competing with Japanese companies in high tech was that they couldn't keep up with us. Yes, once the technology became stable and all of the problems were solved, they held an advantage but on the steep part of the "s" curve, we were always first. First in product intro, first in patents, first in trade secrets. We always ate the lunch of companies like Hitachi, who didn't have the skill sets when it came to introducing new tech in new products and dealing with problems while introducing them to early adopters who tolerate product issues more than the average consumer. They are also willing to pay more for them.

Where the US capitalist model sucks is when the profit margins starts shrinking after the tech is stable. Semiconductors are a good example. Japan took over the market after semiconductors were no longer leading edge and customers started valuing volume, quality and reliability.

Everything is driven by profits. Technology follows the profitability s-curve shown in the lower right. Battery technology isn't just one tech. There will be wave after wave of battery technologies, each one will follow the same curve. At first, negative profits, if the tech is accepted in the market, growth will be rapid and wild profits follow. Japan got into semiconductors at the early maturity stage and with favorable deals from with the Japanese government, banks, etc, as well as stupid moves by US managers and government officials who thought we could just develop the next new thing and sold the developed tech, we lost our edge, lost the ability to manufacture semiconductors and eventually became an r&d hub for asian companies who were willing to manufacture semiconductors in high volumes with high quality but thin profit margins.





The US can innovate and develop new tech like no other nation. What Biden's Inflation Reduction Act does is replicate what Japanese and Chinese governments did to foster manufacturing of those products after the tech was mature. It's only going to last if the administration and public are willing to invest in the manufacturing of those products. Biden is. MAGA GOP will not. The vision does not succeed on four year cycles, so I'm hoping we have a longer run at it by voting in Democratic administrations for at least the next 12 years.

I look at hydrogen as more of an industrial chemical than as a fuel source and figure for most mobile applications batteries will simply out compete it. Cheap hydrogen means cheap green steel IMO.

One wonders about Russia with all this green energy transition stuff happening over the next decade. It's safe to say their European markets for energy are gone for good and a lot of their production and transport infrastructure is frozen and starting to decay and it would take a lot of capital to revive it. The world looks ready to pass them by over the next decade and anything they get in the way of green will come from China. I expect a market there for old western ICE cars, since in a decade nobody will be making them.

Our primary focus is on China, Ukraine can take care of Russia, if we can provide the arms and cash, if we do, they will destroy the remaining Russian military and economic power over the next year or two. Russia removed itself from the playing field and Europe is no longer afraid of the big bad bear since Ukraine pulled his teeth and kicked his ass. China might do better expanding influence into central Asia and picking up the pieces of a dissolving Russian empire in the far east. The Russians stole land from them in the middle of the 19th century when they were weak, long after the British took Hong Kong and they gave that back, maybe they will want Vladivostok back! It would be a smarter move than going up against the allies over Taiwan, at least for as long as they are making most of the worlds advanced microchips.

How about a compact EV for $20K, how about $15K, maybe $10K? Oh Mexico, North America's back door, you will need to worry about more than migrants crossing the southern border! In Europe it is even worse, they need to go green and reduce their dependency on imported oil and gas and their domestic car industry is under direct threat. America's car industry is under threat too and there is just a 25% import duty on Chinese EVs so there would be plenty of margin if they can produce cars for the prices the industry projects.



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What is the tariff on Chinese EV?


Chinese EVs are already subject to a 25% tariff, which has helped prevent subsidized Chinese automakers from making inroads into the U.S. market. Raising that tariff, which comes on top of a 2.5% tariff on auto imports, likely would have little immediate impact on U.S. consumers.Dec 21, 2023

Biden Administration Explores Raising Tariffs on Chinese EVs

Down the road but a way for America and the west to gain an advantage, in nano materials, the challenge is to produce stuff at scale in an economically viable way. The bar for energy will probably be silicon and perovskite PV and batteries of a yet to be determined type iteratively improved over the next decade. There are plenty of good ideas and possibilities, but economic viability and need determine market success and market success makes money and causes change.

Inside the global race for lithium batteries | FT Film

Lithium is the 'new oil' of the clean energy era, crucial to the production of batteries for electric vehicles. The FT investigates this booming industry - and the controversies surrounding it - on a journey from Chile to Norway and the UK

One of the big points raised by pessimists is where are we going to get all the lithium, the extraction process is dirty and uses a lot of ground water in vast evaporation ponds that just recover 40% of the lithium. Well, that is a problem and where there is a problem there is also an opportunity and new technology and good old-fashioned capitalism appears to have found a niche in the vital supply chain. This company uses a variety of scalable and validated chemical extraction processes to recover 90% of the lithium mined from pumped brine and then return the brine back underground, minus most of the lithium content. It is a clean technology that recycles the water and solvents used in extraction too.


Lithium looks to play a big part in battery technology for the foreseeable future, we will need vast quantities of it and it is not a particularly rare mineral but difficult to purify to battery grade. There are also other methods being investigated by other companies that could compete with these guys and I doubt they will have the huge market to themselves, they are also licensing the proprietary technology to other companies. Sandy Munro was so impressed with this company he invested in it and said so in the disclaimer! I don't offer investment advice myself and the battery market promises to be a wild ride for any investor!



The White Gold Rush - How one US startup is changing the lithium extraction game!

The Teardown Titan meet the Lithium King! We recently had the opportunity to visit Energy X and get a tour of their facility.

Energy X is a clean energy technology company that builds disruptive technologies to power a sustainable future with lithium and batteries.

Like I said, lithium is not particularly rare, I'm sure there is much more around too.

These guys have attained 800Wh/L energy density in 18650 cells. We are already approaching 1kWh/L and the weight of the battery pack goes down along with the volume. Higher energy density batteries can also mean lower costs per kWh of storage, less materials are required as storage efficiency increases.

More innovation in the battery field, technological breakthroughs could make China's lead in batteries and solar meaningless. The breakthroughs and iterative improvements keep coming every week in the battery field and not all innovation is done in America either, but for now there is an awful lot of it. Let's hope it gets supported to fruition and commercial viability, if it has potential and not let it be off shored without licensing it first!

Can they 3D print batteries in commercial quantities? They say they can.



Is there anything 3D printing can’t do?

In a huge development in printing technology, Sakuu, a startup from Silicon Valley, is 3D printing solid-state batteries. This is a very, very big deal.

In February, Sakuu announced that it had successfully and consistently produced full-functioning batteries in custom shapes and sizes using 3D printing. These batteries could be used in everything from smartphones to household appliances to e-bikes.
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DIY-HP-LED said:

Inside the global race for lithium batteries | FT Film

Lithium is the 'new oil' of the clean energy era, crucial to the production of batteries for electric vehicles. The FT investigates this booming industry - and the controversies surrounding it - on a journey from Chile to Norway and the UK

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Lithium tech is stupid. Its as stupid as building economies based upon fossil fuels.