Mechanization and the Future
- Thread starter Balzac89
- Start date
heckler73
Well-Known Member
I guess I can reply to myself.
This has happened:
[video=youtube;0SuGRgdJA_c]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SuGRgdJA_c[/video]
It has that Zeitgeist aroma that some may find unsettling,
but I found it interesting in respect to the theme of the thread.
I did not realize to what extent the Technocracy has weaved its way into the infrastructure of traditional commerce.
heckler73
Well-Known Member
I was watching Fareed Zakaria this morning, and he opened the show with a discussion about "middle class stagnation" and how mechanization/digitization has brought this problem upon us. In particular he referenced this new book that came out a few days ago. "The Second Machine Age" by Brynjolfsson and McAfee. I just bought the E-book and am starting to read it, but thought I'd pass the info on. It looks like a good analysis on the surface.
heckler73
Well-Known Member
(HOLY SHIT!!! The WYSIWYG Editor is functioning for me again!!! HALLELUJAH!)
Anyway, I believe the Asimo robot will be able to wipe your ass for you within 10 years (probably 5, but let's play it conservative).
So far in reading this book, it is just a rehash of what that video I posted discusses (the google automated car, Baxter robot, Kiva system in Amazon, etc).
But one startling factor in all this is how computers--while not being good for much manual labour--are phenomenal with cognitive occupations. Literally, white collar business has more to fear from obsolescence than blue collar tradesmen.
Yet, even there with the advent of 3D printing, people like Beenthere and his little contracting business are potentially at risk, at least as far as generic construction (including sub-trades like electrical and plumbing) goes.
We are on the precipice of a MASSIVE paradigm shift, and the more I dig into it, the more certain I become of its activity. It's not as if we are in the beginning stages; this process has become well-entrenched, and we are now witness to the later half of this shift as I type these words.
The way we organize society, with its perverse incentives chasing pieces of paper (or even digits in a bank account) will be eroded with or without our intent. This is not some Marxist nonsense I am talking about here, either. It is the cold fact of the second machine age.
Only instead of the Steam Engine (James Watt 1775) creating the impetus, it is the computer...
Fucking mind boggling... smoking weed is helping make it more so, too
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
This gets to the core of my point. Where will wages come from when most human labor is obsolete and no longer cost effective.(HOLY SHIT!!! The WYSIWYG Editor is functioning for me again!!! HALLELUJAH!)
Anyway, I believe the Asimo robot will be able to wipe your ass for you within 10 years (probably 5, but let's play it conservative).
So far in reading this book, it is just a rehash of what that video I posted discusses (the google automated car, Baxter robot, Kiva system in Amazon, etc).
But one startling factor in all this is how computers--while not being good for much manual labour--are phenomenal with cognitive occupations. Literally, white collar business has more to fear from obsolescence than blue collar tradesmen.
Yet, even there with the advent of 3D printing, people like Beenthere and his little contracting business are potentially at risk, at least as far as generic construction (including sub-trades like electrical and plumbing) goes.
We are on the precipice of a MASSIVE paradigm shift, and the more I dig into it, the more certain I become of its activity. It's not as if we are in the beginning stages; this process has become well-entrenched, and we are now witness to the later half of this shift as I type these words.
The way we organize society, with its perverse incentives chasing pieces of paper (or even digits in a bank account) will be eroded with or without our intent. This is not some Marxist nonsense I am talking about here, either. It is the cold fact of the second machine age.
Only instead of the Steam Engine (James Watt 1775) creating the impetus, it is the computer...
Fucking mind boggling... smoking weed is helping make it more so, too
Where will wages come from? How will products be bought and sold? Who pays taxes?
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
I make really good money running machines that have replaced other machines and humans
The lathes I run are 6 axis with transfer abilitys. How many people and machines you think were needed 25 years ago for the capabilitys this one machine has?
[video=youtube;mdyhL7pcrBc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdyhL7pcrBc[/video]
heckler73
Well-Known Member
Well, this is something I suspect is addressed later in the book (when they talk about GDP's failings as a metric). However, if we continue to manage our society using capitalist models, the creator of money (i.e. the federal gov't, except for those poor bastards in the EU) will need to pony up a base income. Whether it be through Friedman's "Negative Income Tax" scheme, or the Swiss initiative of a "Guaranteed Income", it has to come from the source. Some mistakenly believe banks create money; this is wrong, they merely extend credit but still need to find reserves inevitably from the source to pad those double-entry ledgers.
We already gave up the antiquated, self-imposed limits of seigniorage long ago, although our perceptions have not caught up with this fact completely (as evidenced by many discussions on this forum).
But then there are those who poo-poo the idea saying "where will incentive come from?" There is still incentive to "accumulate" for those who wish to do so (junkies will be junkies), but the necessity of working changes. There is another video addressed within the "will work for free" piece that perhaps explains it better:
[video=youtube;u6XAPnuFjJc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc[/video]
Give people the freedom to pursue creative interests, and they will work...for free.
The way organizations are managed will need to change, though, since the traditional ideas of incentive are clearly wrong.
...The PURPOSE Motive vs the PROFIT Motive...
heckler73
Well-Known Member
And just to add more fuel to the fire...
A study from Sept 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, claim that 47% of total US employment is at risk of being automated.
Now it is mostly based on probabilities; however, there is some food for thought in the metrics of their analysis. The way they categorize possible avenues of automation (or computerization) is interesting.
Anyway, here's the study... it's 70+ pages, but the bulk of it is only 40 (lots of appendices).
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf
And a website discussing the topic (where I got the link from)
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/oxford-professors-nearly-half-our-jobs-could-be-automated-within-the-next-20-years
A study from Sept 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, claim that 47% of total US employment is at risk of being automated.
Now it is mostly based on probabilities; however, there is some food for thought in the metrics of their analysis. The way they categorize possible avenues of automation (or computerization) is interesting.
Anyway, here's the study... it's 70+ pages, but the bulk of it is only 40 (lots of appendices).
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf
And a website discussing the topic (where I got the link from)
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/oxford-professors-nearly-half-our-jobs-could-be-automated-within-the-next-20-years
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
With the disenfranchised masses already abandoning the labor market. There is no way that the unemployment rate is only 7 percent.
heckler73
Well-Known Member
It's not 7%. But the dynamics are admittedly difficult to quantify due to retirees and attrition in labour markets (i.e. redundancy or obsolescence).
So while one can refine the figure by looking at participation rates, the actual number will be somewhat fuzzy. Regardless, it is higher, and the question I ponder is "what is the new norm in this 2nd machine age? 15%? 25%? More?"
As an aside, I was just looking at the appendix of that study I posted, and in it they have a long list of occupations they see being "computerized" in the next 20 years. Some of the shit on there is amazing; the amount of trades that will become automated is shocking, things like stone-masonry and welders, etc.
Doer
Well-Known Member
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
I think it is worth it to know how this stuff is measured. And apples to apples, the rate is indeed now down to 7%. And apples to apples, Obama should be able to win a Presidential election, only just now.
So, just now, which shell is the pea under? This is the Big Casino remember? Don't forget that.
The awesome and ponderous majesty of all this is that the 20 somethings begin to take over. And when they are 30 something, call the shots behind the scenes, with the sharp and snappy insights. And the 40 somethings have to listen and be afraid they don't get it.
By, now, as I said, I am only a mascot to some very powerful 50 somethings.
So, here is a dog pile for you.
You work.
- to rip off the Casino
- to luck out in the Casino
- to work for the Casino
I've done all three. Got busted. Lost all my money. Found a good job.
Doer
Well-Known Member
Are you kidding? What happened?
Doer
Well-Known Member
I don't know about most. But, let us compromise on new entry level, if we may?
Agreed. It sucks when the 30 somethings become 40 something and have to listen to the 20 somethings.
A hot shot gets the bucks, no matter what. Agree?
Become a hot shot at something. Agree?
It will take years. Agree?
Gotta start somewhere. I have, not so easily, held down three jobs at once. That is about max.
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
I wish I could take a picture at the parts I run. They are complex and intricate. I do the work of 4-6 people in 1/10 th the time
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
There were tweets about it someone who worked there jumped off the building.