The Law of Unexpected Consequences

UncleBuck

Well-Known Member
Today's Lesson in unexpected consequences....

Thinking outside the humanitarian box....
People that are in charge do not govern their deeds by the law of unintended consequences ....
They govern by not whats best but for their legacy...
A busted foreign policy... illegals streaming into the country...but we must care....
What is the worst thing that could happen?

http://www.naturalnews.com/045773_pandemic_outbreak_mass_migration_public_health_risk.html
your laughable source aside, your implication that all foreigners are dirty, disease ridden problems waiting to happen is completely expected coming from you.
 

Sand4x105

Well-Known Member
Today's Lesson in Unexpected Consequences...

The Third Rail....

A well-known Queens graffiti “artist” was electrocuted by the third rail in a Brooklyn subway station, sources told The Post.

Underground graffiti legend Jason Wulf, 42, was found dead on the tracks just before 10 p.m. Wednesday at the 25th Street Station in Sunset Park, sources said. It’s unclear exactly what Wulf was doing right before he died, but the MTA said it is investigating the death.

http://nypost.com/2014/07/05/graffiti-legend-dies-in-subway-third-rail-electrocution/

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It is not unclear... he was messing with the law of the unexpected....
 

Sand4x105

Well-Known Member
your laughable source aside, your implication that all foreigners are dirty, disease ridden problems waiting to happen is completely expected coming from you.
Buck... we have a great nation we agree... we [excepts idiots/Jenny Mc /and That Texas Mega Church] give our kids shots...
Third world country's do not give shots, to stop problems before they start...
I am just the messenger... I bring you Opps there it goes again.... Polio is making a show again... How did that happen?
 

burgertime2010

Well-Known Member
What is this great nation that I hear so much about.....where are the Real-Americans, who are they? we didn't stop the real problem before it started.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
Aggregate GDP is becoming a relic of a metric, on its own. The hypothesis of the weather affecting the output is very plausible. It may have had its own "economic stimulus" profile (snow plows and consumables, etc.), but whatever it "produced" was dwarfed by the losses in the "normal" economy. What will happen in Q2? If there was pent-up demand, it will be visible as an "overshoot" relative to trend.

To which, St. Louis FED has put out the following today:
FRED Adds 609 Industry-Specific GDP Series
Posted on June 26, 2014

FRED has added
609 quarterly series published by the BEA for the first time. These series track gross output, value added, and intermediate inputs for 22 industry sectors.


Now that's detail...a better picture overall will be more likely extrapolated from binned data such as that.


Canada's economy didn't contract, and they had a bad winter, too.
 
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Red1966

Well-Known Member
In the household survey, full-time jobs fell by 523,000, while part-time jobs rose by 799,000. The U6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers who want better full-time jobs or folks who have given up, dropped only slightly to 12.1 percent. That's still a historically high rate. And the labor-force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8 percent, a 30-year low.

Wall Street Journal editor Phil Izzo makes a disconcerting point: The good way for unemployment to fall is for more people to find jobs. But the bad way is for more people to give up looking for work altogether.

Unfortunately, Izzo notes that, while 2.15 million people gained employment in June, 2.35 million dropped out of the labor force. "In all but two months since December 2008, more unemployed have dropped out than found jobs," writes Izzo.
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101813082
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
Canada's economy didn't contract, and they had a bad winter, too.
Really? I trust I don't need to belabor the point of how Canada is accustomed to winter's cycle (we live in igloos and all that other funny shit). An extra meter of snow is not going be as disruptive here, as it would be along the Eastern seaboard of the contiguous states.
Then factor in the scalar for population. Ten-times the population is going to have a more than likely non-linear effect on the scenario.
Shall we compare our snow plow armies? I bet that is one thing we may ironically beat the US with.
Even on the Wet Coast (not a typo) we probably have a greater density of snow-blowers per capita than the Eastern States.
Furthermore, temperatures ~240K are not unusual, especially on the Prairies. We are accustomed to shutting down operations for at least a couple weeks in winter, too, since trying to use your hands when your spit freezes on walls within seconds is damn near impossible.
So, based on just that qualitative analysis, I am not surprised our GDP didn't get hit, relatively speaking.

But, heeeeyyyy...what are the numbers, right? Until the quantitative is checked against the qualitative, it's just an art project.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
We've had bad winters before, without this effect. Let's be honest here. Obama supporters will grasp at any excuse to explain away failed policies. Such as pretending the poor living conditions in Central America that have been there for decades are the cause of the new, unprecedented inrush of immigration of minors. This is simply illogical. But his supporters simply choose to ignore reality.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Literally 100% of the citizenry could be opposed to war in Iraq, but guaranteed we are going back no matter how much you don't want to. Elect whoever you like, they are already bought and paid to ignore you.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
We are accustomed to shutting down operations for at least a couple weeks in winter, too, since trying to use your hands when your spit freezes on walls within seconds is damn near impossible.
Canadians are pussies though. In America we wear gloves and care not what the thermometer says.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
I had half expected the Shia would carry on a revenge campaign against the Sunni when Saddam was ousted, driving them out of the country or killing them, but they didn't. Now their restraint has come back to bite them in the ass. I expect the atrocities of ISIS and the Sunni's will not go unpunished this go around, should the Shia prevail.
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
We've had bad winters before, without this effect. Let's be honest here. Obama supporters will grasp at any excuse to explain away failed policies. Such as pretending the poor living conditions in Central America that have been there for decades are the cause of the new, unprecedented inrush of immigration of minors. This is simply illogical. But his supporters simply choose to ignore reality.
Without data, honesty is meaningless. One can be honestly deluded, too.
It's akin to sincerity, and how the most sincere person you'll ever meet is the naked lunatic, chasing you down an alley wielding an axe.
That's why I applied a caveat at the end of my qualitative comparison.

Have you checked out the new FRED tools and layout?

Canadians are pussies though. In America we wear gloves and care not what the thermometer says.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
Without data, honesty is meaningless. One can be honestly deluded, too.
It's akin to sincerity, and how the most sincere person you'll ever meet is the naked lunatic, chasing you down an alley wielding an axe.
That's why I applied a caveat at the end of my qualitative comparison.

Have you checked out the new FRED tools and layout?


Vague reference to delusion and lunacy when the obvious is stated. Let's not accuse the other of either. I have no knowledge of this "FRED" you speak off.
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
Vague reference to delusion and lunacy when the obvious is stated. Let's not accuse the other of either. I have no knowledge of this "FRED" you speak off.
Oh! I guess you didn't follow-up on my earlier links which you originally quoted.
FRED is the data interface provided by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. It is a useful resource for economic data in the US, and it now has expanded features (like GEOFRED with maps). You can see geographical data, such as what happened with GDP along the Eastern seaboard, for example.
I'm a little surprised you don't know about it, actually, considering how many times over the last year it's been used in this forum.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
Oh! I guess you didn't follow-up on my earlier links which you originally quoted.
FRED is the data interface provided by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. It is a useful resource for economic data in the US, and it now has expanded features (like GEOFRED with maps). You can see geographical data, such as what happened with GDP along the Eastern seaboard, for example.
I'm a little surprised you don't know about it, actually, considering how many times over the last year it's been used in this forum.
I don't recall quoting such a link.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
Derp, I found the reference to FRED. Kind of vague....."plausible" isn't exactly a glowing endorsement. Not even sure that came from FRED, could just be from an article that referenced FRED. Sort of like: "Martians invaded Earth today. The AMA is the representative body for the medical profession"
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
Derp, I found the reference to FRED. Kind of vague....."plausible" isn't exactly a glowing endorsement. Not even sure that came from FRED, could just be from an article that referenced FRED. Sort of like: "Martians invaded Earth today. The AMA is the representative body for the medical profession"
Vague? Perhaps the reference to this winter's GDP shock is vague, but the information presented is anything but. The point being, if you want to definitively conclude the greater reason for the lower GDP was due to something other than the weather, you'll need some data to back that up. Hence, the link to FRED's new data-sets.
Is my original intent clearer now?

Ci sei? C'e lo fai? Sei connesso?
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
Vague? Perhaps the reference to this winter's GDP shock is vague, but the information presented is anything but. The point being, if you want to definitively conclude the greater reason for the lower GDP was due to something other than the weather, you'll need some data to back that up. Hence, the link to FRED's new data-sets.
Is my original intent clearer now?

Ci sei? C'e lo fai? Sei connesso?
How is it my obligation to disprove your contention? If I claimed I was 3,000 years old, is it your obligation to disprove it? We've had plenty of bad weather in the past without a whopping 3% contraction in GDP. Why was last winter different?
 
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