yes - and the different testing rates of various nations simply create a huge distortion in the way these statistics can be compared to one another.
So no testing, no stats, no stats, no data, no data no mathematical analysis. Testing, testing, testing and it has been grossly inadequate both PCR tests and serological ones in both Sweden and America, yet you are quoting this deeply flawed data as if it were factual and drawing premature conclusions about it. There's not much point in carrying on here for now, we are seeing NPI's breaking down in those places that cannot support it, a large uncontrolled experiment is about to begin, in fact, coming to a neighborhood near you.
This is like a theology discussion, for every graph and metric one person can show another can counter it or rationalise it away. The lockdowns will end where they can't be supported with a recovery plan. I'm hoping things will be different in Canada, I'm tracking the ratio of American to Canadian deaths, right now it's 3 to 1. Watch it over the next month as the lock down breaks down south of the border.
Yup that’s what I’ve been saying all along. It is not a complete data set at this point. I will admit I haven’t spent hours and hours researching though, shit to do lol.
How could this graph be true? Sweden had no lockdowns, (lockdowns dont' work after all) they should have the lowest deaths of any Scandinavian country ('we'll leave out Holland for this instance). Our own Dr Fonzi, care to explain??? LOL.
I’m glad they didn’t lockdown........ phew they sure dodged that bullet....... lockdowns kill. Also I’ve been watching the protests and the call to arms by your president ....... they all look so sciencey and interesting.
.I’ll answer that, then it’s off to the beach..... woohoo. Death is not a true representative of death. Do more research dofus
Its good enough for me to keep my ass personally distant! Why even bother getting into the weeds on NPIs, but I like it when ya do, it's kinda like a sporting event. Now what will AC say in his defense, the scale is linear and he was complaining about logarithmic charts...
You should compare Sweden with countries that had confirmed human to human transmission around the same time like Spain and Italy.
The growth and apparent plateau correlates with testing. The fact is, it took a national effort to produce enough beds in New York and people are still dying at home there. What about when the next city spirals out just like New York? The doubling rate in the country is above the 6.4 days estimated by the WHO at 6 days. Even if you only count the confirmed cases in the country with the current doubling rate, everyone in the country will have the virus in less than two months. What I am saying, and you also know this, is that the current strategy is not working and if we continue trying to do it, we're going to still have far more sick people than we can deal with AND a famine. That will drive up the death rate far higher than letting people decide. People with antibodies need to get back to work and produce the world's food.
If 3% have it or have had it already, the entire country will have been infected in a month.
Not arguing, saw your post and the data is starting to support your "evolved" argument, so I posted it, this appears to be a much better study than the one that said 50 to 85 times, there appear to be concerns with the selection methodology. These assumptions are made on the asymptomatic rate of contagion and as can be seen there is quite a spread between 15 x and 50x. There are links on my public health thread to an interesting Boston homeless shelter study with 37% showing asymptomatic, one participant has been since hospitalised.
My argument has not changed. Everyone's just offended by one minor premise, a furthermore. Most of the world's governments are starting to get their economies reopened. Italy did more than a week ago. It's necessary.
It's the Trumper flies you attracted with the title that bothered me most, NPI's work for a purpose, but are not a solution, they are a means to attain one though, if the government does not squander the time. This of course only applies to wealthy countries and IMHO are to be used to buy time to deploy effective treatments. That appears to be the emerging picture, but my POV is not yet supported by the data from studies, gimme a week!
You ok buddy?
