Lockdowns work.

DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
A new scientific report stresses: Only the most severe distancing measures can prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths
A sobering new report from the COVID-19 Response Team at the Imperial College of London underscores the need to keep social distancing measures in place for a long period.

It outlines two scenarios for combating the spread of the outbreak. One is mitigation, which focuses on “slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread.” Another is suppression, “which aims to reverse epidemic growth.”


In their analysis, isolation of confirmed cases and quarantine of older adults without social distancing would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths, and an “eight-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both [Great Britain] and the US.”

Fucking politicians ..... think they know everything.
Click to expand...
Opening the economy in a limited manner will be required, but so will smart NPI's (Non Pharmaceutical Interventions), the term lockdown has become a pejorative and is not particularly descriptive or useful, it's a term increasingly used by Trumpers with a political agenda and not a public health one.

I'm focused on ways out using treatments and their implications, if the preliminary data holds up. I believe this will change the nature of the conversation with in a month and allow more opening up more quickly than anticipated. It ain't so bad if ya don't die or get so sick yer fucked for life.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
The jokes are funny, I can laugh even if they're at my expense.

That was the curve in "flatten the curve". That was always the strategy. A logarithmic graph of cases per day. The idea was to keep the apex of that curve below the line representing healthcare capacity. Doing this, it was thought, would prevent healthcare systems being overloaded and that this would keep the rate of death down. If you do a simple search with the terms "what is flatten the curve" and click on some of the trustworthy sources. You will find I'm correct on this. By moving the goalposts around, you have now come to something I have been saying all along. That stat is fucking worthless. Nonetheless, it's been the number one stat used by all of the agencies and governments around the world as the metric regarding "flatten the curve".

It is actually very refutable by infection rates. People are getting infected at an alarming rate despite the lockdowns and this is absolutely irrefutable. The effect that the lockdowns are having on infection rates while I do believe there is a small effect, it's still exponential and studies are coming in showing this to be correct, I have cited them. The problem is, a famine is looming and "those stupid trumptards" protesting are a bigger group than you think. Governments around the world agree and are doing all they can to reopen.
Click to expand...
I can't refute something that isn't measured or quantified in some way. How do you know that people are getting infected at an alarming rate at this moment (or over the past 5 days would be acceptable) in the US? Not your hypothetical bafflegab but something real and published by a credible authority.

A famine isn't "looming". I have no doubt that there are a lot of stupid trumptards. Yes, whatever happens in the next six months will affect the election but threatening me with more Trump or civil actions by militant trumptards doesn't affect what the virus will do, so that is the priority right now.
 
Last edited:
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
A new scientific report stresses: Only the most severe distancing measures can prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths
A sobering new report from the COVID-19 Response Team at the Imperial College of London underscores the need to keep social distancing measures in place for a long period.

It outlines two scenarios for combating the spread of the outbreak. One is mitigation, which focuses on “slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread.” Another is suppression, “which aims to reverse epidemic growth.”


In their analysis, isolation of confirmed cases and quarantine of older adults without social distancing would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths, and an “eight-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both [Great Britain] and the US.”

Fucking politicians ..... think they know everything.
Click to expand...
It's a cover up. You don't think they will admit to being wrong, do you?
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Recent large scale testing in LA California show between 2.5% and 5.6% of adults in the area have antibodies for COVID-19 in their system. Testing was done on samples pulled during drive through events on Apr 10 and 11th

Early antibody testing suggests COVID-19 infections in L.A. County greatly exceed documented cases
USC and L.A. County Department of Public Health officials have released the preliminary results of their antibody tests, which show a surprising number of residents have been infected with the coronavirus.

I suppose a lockdown hater would jump to the conclusion that this means everybody has been exposed. I read this as saying the virus is present in the communty and ending lockdown right now would waste the expense we've already invested in stopping this epidemic.

You make the call.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
NPI's seemed to work quite well in Australia, so well they are starting to get back on their feet, with a proper plan and on the advice of experts
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
www.reuters.com

Road to recovery: Australia eases restrictions as coronavirus spread slows

Declaring Australia was on the road to recovery with new coronavirus infections almost stamped out, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday hospitals will resume many elective surgeries and schools will be re-opened for more children.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Road to recovery: Australia eases restrictions as coronavirus spread slows

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Declaring Australia was on the road to recovery with new coronavirus infections almost stamped out, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday hospitals will resume many elective surgeries and schools will be re-opened for more children.

As part of broad social distancing restrictions, Australia in March banned all non-emergency surgeries to free-up hospital beds amid expectations of a surge in coronavirus cases. Schools were also closed.

But with infection rates falling from more than 25% in mid-March to its current level of less than 1% a day, Morrison said in Canberra that Australia could relax some restrictions from next week.

“We are on the road back and I think we have already reached a turning point,” Morrison told reporters on Tuesday.

Australia’s Health Minister Greg Hunt said on Tuesday the easing of elective surgery restrictions was possible after authorities secured more protective and medical equipment, including a “full capacity” of 7,500 ventilators.

The expanded list of surgeries, including IVF and joint replacements, can begin next week.

The government said it would release details of a contact tracing app - designed to alert users if they come into close contact with people later diagnosed with COVID-19 - shortly. Authorities believe the tracing app needs to be put in place before many services are re-opened.

SCHOOLS TO REOPEN
After more than a month of teaching children online, Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales (NSW), said all students will begin face-to-face lessons next month.

NSW state Premier Gladys Berejiklian said students will begin to return to school on May 11 on a staggered basis in preparation for full-time schooling to re-start in July.
more...
 
zeddd

zeddd

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
Recent large scale testing in LA California show between 2.5% and 5.6% of adults in the area have antibodies for COVID-19 in their system. Testing was done on samples pulled during drive through events on Apr 10 and 11th

Early antibody testing suggests COVID-19 infections in L.A. County greatly exceed documented cases
USC and L.A. County Department of Public Health officials have released the preliminary results of their antibody tests, which show a surprising number of residents have been infected with the coronavirus.

I suppose a lockdown hater would jump to the conclusion that this means everybody has been exposed. I read this as saying the virus is present in the communty and ending lockdown right now would waste the expense we've already invested in stopping this epidemic.

You make the call.
Click to expand...
Hey you with your lockdown hater polemic!
 
zeddd

zeddd

Well-Known Member
Lockdown is working so well in the U.K, new data suggests logarithmic curve flattening remains at >800 fatalities per day, hooray for lockdown! Unless you’re dead of course
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Too bad for the people of Wisconsin that lockdowns work

www.reuters.com

Seven confirmed COVID-19 cases linked to Wisconsin's April elections

((This April 21 story refiles to update last paragraph to clarify Oregon's vote-by-mail system))
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

(Reuters) - At least seven people contracted the coronavirus during Wisconsin’s primary election on April 7, Milwaukee health officials said on Tuesday, confirming fears that holding in-person voting during the health crisis put people at risk.
 
tangerinegreen555

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
Too bad for the people of Wisconsin that lockdowns work

www.reuters.com

Seven confirmed COVID-19 cases linked to Wisconsin's April elections

((This April 21 story refiles to update last paragraph to clarify Oregon's vote-by-mail system))
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

(Reuters) - At least seven people contracted the coronavirus during Wisconsin’s primary election on April 7, Milwaukee health officials said on Tuesday, confirming fears that holding in-person voting during the health crisis put people at risk.
Click to expand...
You knew that was coming.

Even n95 masks are only 95% effective. The masks in those lines weren't exactly medical grade.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top