Lockdowns work.

DIY-HP-LED said:

What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19

Close confines help the virus to spread, but closed environments are also an ideal place to study how the new coronavirus behaves.

www.nature.com

Don't read spanish and I was speaking of the IFR, useful for calculating the total number of infections using the most reliable metric, so far. The CFR is a different matter but since you mentioned it:
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"Another team used data from the ship to estimate2 that the proportion of deaths among confirmed cases in China, the case fatality rate (CFR), was around 1.1% — much lower than the 3.8% estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The WHO simply divided China’s total number of deaths by the total number of confirmed infections, says Timothy Russell, a mathematical epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That method does not take into account that only a fraction of infected people are actually tested, and so it makes the disease seem more deadly than it is, he says.

By contrast, Russell and his colleagues used data from the ship — where almost everyone was tested, and all seven deaths recorded — and combined it with more than 72,000 confirmed cases in China, making their CFR estimate more robust. The results have been posted on the biomedical preprint server medRxiv, and have not been peer-reviewed yet".



"The group also estimates that the infection fatality rate (IFR) in China — the proportion of all infections, including asymptomatic ones, that result in death — is even lower, at roughly 0.5%. The IFR is especially tricky to calculate in the population, because some deaths go undetected if the person didn’t show symptoms or get tested"

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abandonconflict said:

The ship is useful indeed. The difference between the ship and the real world is that it's a damn petri dish. Every single passenger and crew member was tested. If the German study is indeed correct and that only 1.6% of cases are detected, which is also in line with the Stanford study indicating that the number of infected is 50-85 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, the IFR in the US is less than a tenth of a percent. It also indicates that 1 in 7 US residents has already been infected.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

The researchers took advantage of an excellent petri dish to gain fundamental data that can inform other studies with less controlled parameters. Is my take on its value. I posted the Stanford study on my public health thread along with some of the issues that make it an overestimate, from what I've seen, it won't make it through review IMHO and it is humble indeed!

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abandonconflict said:

What the petri dish gave us was insight into the asymptomatic proportion.

The problem with the Stanford study is that while it may reflect accurate numbers where it took place, other locations would have differing levels of detection. It's likely very accurate in its group. It's a foregone conclusion and consensus at this point that cases are vastly under-detected everywhere. The degree to which cases are detected may simply be a matter of demographics such as age, sex and apparently ethnicity.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

We are back to gross estimates and logarithmic scales to detect rates.

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high acutance said:

is the cure worse than the disease .

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UncleBuck said:

Nope

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high acutance said:

When you ask if lockdowns "work," does that mean that they defeat the virus? No, they just delay transmission. Eventually, everyone gets the virus. Some may experience it as mild, some may die. The lockdown advantage is that the healthcare system is not swamped, and we buy some time to work on effective treatments. However, if the lockdown begins to destroy the economy, another set of costs increase. Economic hardship can destroy people as well as disease. Just look at Appalachia, the Rust Belt, and the opioid crisis. If the lockdown creates another Great Depression, is the cure worse than the disease? Everything has its cost, and you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

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kelly4 said:

YOU are worse than a disease.

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Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus
Mass. General researcher says the results point to a ‘raging epidemic,’ but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities
Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.

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Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus - The Boston Globe

A Mass. General researcher says the results point to a "raging epidemic," but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities.

www.bostonglobe.com

abandonconflict said:

Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus - The Boston Globe

A Mass. General researcher says the results point to a "raging epidemic," but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities.

www.bostonglobe.com

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A total of 525 cases were tested: 397 (positive) clinically confirmed (including PCR test) SARS-CoV-2-infected patients and 128 non- SARS-CoV-2-infected patients (128 negative). The testing results of vein blood without viral inactivation were summarized in the Table 1. Of the 397 blood samples from SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, 352 tested positive, resulting in a sensitivity of 88.66%. Twelve of the blood samples from the 128 non-SARS-CoV-2 infection patients tested positive, generating a specificity of 90.63%.

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Researchers said the test results, which had yet to be shared with state officials late Friday, couldn’t necessarily be extrapolated for the city’s roughly 40,000 residents. Still, the findings provided a valuable snapshot of a community that medical experts say is especially vulnerable to COVID-19.

Chelsea covers only about two square miles, across the Mystic River from Boston. For generations, it has attracted new immigrants, and about 65 percent of its residents are Latino. Many live in three-decker houses, Ambrosino said, where it’s hard for people to isolate themselves. Many work in the hospitality industry and health-related fields, where exposure to the virus is greater. And a lot of them must go to work during the pandemic.

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