Lockdowns don't work.

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
"Rockford-area Republican lawmaker John Cabello filed the second lawsuit over the stay-at-home order on Wednesday. Cabello said he's motivated by small shop owners who've asked why they can't fully operate, but big box stores can.

"We're just being told how things are going to be," Cabello said. "And I don't believe that the constitution allows him to do this for another 30 days."

I read our section in the constitution under the emergency powers act, which does NOT allow the governor to continue shutdowns beyond 30 days.
Every state has a safeguard against this, so that 1 person cannot make decisions beyond their scope of capabilities.
That's what legislatures vote for, so that 1 person isn't overwhelmed, or abusing their power.
He's going to lose in court in our state.
That's what it boils down to. Human rights. If boomers want to completely isolate, they may, but society must continue.
al-bundy-just-to-be-clear-all-agreed-liquor-stores-essential-schools-are-not.jpg
When my business reopens, I will require everyone to be medically cleared before I accept them for any courses, but I won't bother the young and fit with it, might even give them a discount.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
2 years....
New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity
You better get used to your foxhole. They're not going to continue the lockdowns for two years. They can barely do it for a month.

It'll run out of boomers to kill before then.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
You better get used to your foxhole. They're not going to continue the lockdowns for two years. They can barely do it for a month.

It'll run out of boomers to kill before then.
foxhole is getting bigger every day.....food chain is broken, things will get ugly
 

Justin-case

Well-Known Member
2 years....
New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity
Three and half years of the trump virus, makes two years of Corona virus seem doable.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
That's what it boils down to. Human rights. If boomers want to completely isolate, they may, but society must continue.
View attachment 4552279
When my business reopens, I will require everyone to be medically cleared before I accept them for any courses, but I won't bother the young and fit with it, might even give them a discount.
Have you planted a garden yet?.....or are you gonna live on coral for 2 years?.....
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
That's what it boils down to. Human rights. If boomers want to completely isolate, they may, but society must continue.
View attachment 4552279
When my business reopens, I will require everyone to be medically cleared before I accept them for any courses, but I won't bother the young and fit with it, might even give them a discount.
I see that you stopped posting bullshit sciency crap and are now just shouting. Seems you've moved on from denial and are in the anger mode of the grieving cycle.

I'm sorry for your losses AC.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

What the Proponents of ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity Don’t Say
Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die.

The coronavirus moved so rapidly across the globe partly because no one had prior immunity to it. Failure to check its spread will result in a catastrophic loss of lives. Yet some politicians, epidemiologists and commentators are advising that the most practical course of action is to manage infections while allowing so-called herd immunity to build.
The concept of herd immunity is typically described in the context of a vaccine. When enough people are vaccinated, a pathogen cannot spread easily through the population. If you are infected with measles but everyone you interact with has been vaccinated, transmission will be stopped in its tracks.
Vaccination levels must stay above a threshold that depends upon the transmissibility of the pathogen. We don’t yet know exactly how transmissible the coronavirus is, but say each person infects an average of three others. That would mean nearly two-thirds of the population would need to be immune to confer herd immunity.
In the absence of a vaccine, developing immunity to a disease like Covid-19 requires actually being infected with the coronavirus. For this to work, prior infection has to confer immunity against future infection. While hopeful, scientists are not yet certain that this is the case, nor do they know how long this immunity might last. The virus was discovered only a few months ago.

But even assuming that immunity is long-lasting, a very large number of people must be infected to reach the herd immunity threshold required. Given that current estimates suggest roughly 0.5 percent to 1 percent of all infections are fatal, that means a lot of deaths.

Perhaps most important to understand, the virus doesn’t magically disappear when the herd immunity threshold is reached. That’s not when things stop — it’s only when they start to slow down.

Once enough immunity has been built in the population, each person will infect fewer than one other person, so a new epidemic cannot start afresh. But an epidemic that is already underway will continue to spread. If 100,000 people are infectious at the peak and they each infect 0.9 people, that’s still 90,000 new infections, and more after that. A runaway train doesn’t stop the instant the track begins to slope uphill, and a rapidly spreading virus doesn’t stop right when herd immunity is attained.
If the pandemic went uncontrolled in the United States, it could continue for months after herd immunity was reached, infecting many more millions in the process.

By the time the epidemic ended, a very large proportion of the population would have been infected — far above our expected herd immunity threshold of around two-thirds. These additional infections are what epidemiologists refer to as “overshoot.”

After Herd Immunity ... More Infections
Herd immunity doesn’t stop a virus in its tracks. The number of infections continues to climb after herd immunity is reached.
See graphic in article

Some countries are attempting strategies intended to “safely” build up population immunity to the coronavirus without a vaccine. Sweden, for instance, is asking older people and those with underlying health issues to self-quarantine but is keeping many schools, restaurants and bars open. Many commentators have suggested that this would also be a good policy for poorer countries like India. But given the fatality rate, there is no way to do this without huge numbers of casualties — and indeed, Sweden has already seen far more deaths than its neighbors.
As we see it, now is far too early to throw up our hands and proceed as if a vast majority of the world’s population will inevitably become infected before a vaccine becomes available.
Moreover, we should not be overconfident about our ability to conduct a “controlled burn” with a pandemic that exploded across the globe in a matter of weeks despite extraordinary efforts to contain it.
Since the early days of the pandemic, we have been using social distancing to flatten its curve. This decreases strain on the health care system. It buys the scientific community time to develop treatments and vaccines, as well as build up capacity for testing and tracing. While this is an extraordinarily difficult virus to manage, countries such as New Zealand and Taiwan have had early success, challenging the narrative that control is impossible. We must learn from their successes.
There would be nothing quick or painless about reaching herd immunity without a vaccine.
Carl T. Bergstrom is a professor of biology at the University of Washington. Natalie Dean is an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent
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Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu

Results from coronavirus antibody tests have started to trickle in, and they bolster the consensus among disease experts that the virus is significantly more lethal than seasonal flu and has seeded the most disruptive pandemic in the past century.

“I think it is the worst pandemic since 1918,” said Cecile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center, alluding to the “Great Influenza” pandemic that claimed an estimated 675,000 lives in the United States.

The new serological data, which is provisional, suggests that coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more. Many people experience mild symptoms or none at all, and never get the standard diagnostic test with a swab up the nose, so they’re missed in the official covid-19 case counts.

Higher infection rates mean lower lethality risk on average. But the corollary is that this is a very contagious disease capable of being spread by people who are asymptomatic — a challenge for communities hoping to end their shutdowns.

The crude case fatality rates, covering people who have a covid-19 diagnosis, have been about 6 percent globally as well as in the United States. But when all the serological data is compiled and analyzed, the fatality rate among people who have been infected could be less than 1 percent.

But as infectious disease experts point out, even a seemingly low rate can translate into a shockingly large death toll if the virus spreads through a major portion of the population.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Monday that the latest antibody numbers in New York City indicate that 25 percent of the population of 8.8 million has already been infected. The city has recorded more than 12,000 confirmed covid-19 deaths, and lists another 5,000 as probable deaths. That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent, depending on which death toll is factored in. (A spike in all-cause deaths in recent weeks also suggests that some coronavirus-related deaths have not been captured by mortality statistics.)
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
THANKFULLY, North American and European governments are backing off from the failed lockdown policies that have ravaged economies and failed to contain the spread of the pandemic.
SE Asia Stocks-Gain as easing global lockdowns signal economic recovery
Southeast Asian stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, with the Philippines leading gains, as easing coronavirus restrictions in parts of the world fed hopes of a recovery in global economic activity. Oil prices gained as U.S. stockpiles rose less than expected and on expectations that demand would pick up as some COVID-19 hotspots in Europe and within the United States moved to ease lockdowns
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu

Results from coronavirus antibody tests have started to trickle in, and they bolster the consensus among disease experts that the virus is significantly more lethal than seasonal flu and has seeded the most disruptive pandemic in the past century.

“I think it is the worst pandemic since 1918,” said Cecile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center, alluding to the “Great Influenza” pandemic that claimed an estimated 675,000 lives in the United States.

The new serological data, which is provisional, suggests that coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more. Many people experience mild symptoms or none at all, and never get the standard diagnostic test with a swab up the nose, so they’re missed in the official covid-19 case counts.

Higher infection rates mean lower lethality risk on average. But the corollary is that this is a very contagious disease capable of being spread by people who are asymptomatic — a challenge for communities hoping to end their shutdowns.

The crude case fatality rates, covering people who have a covid-19 diagnosis, have been about 6 percent globally as well as in the United States. But when all the serological data is compiled and analyzed, the fatality rate among people who have been infected could be less than 1 percent.

But as infectious disease experts point out, even a seemingly low rate can translate into a shockingly large death toll if the virus spreads through a major portion of the population.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Monday that the latest antibody numbers in New York City indicate that 25 percent of the population of 8.8 million has already been infected. The city has recorded more than 12,000 confirmed covid-19 deaths, and lists another 5,000 as probable deaths. That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent, depending on which death toll is factored in. (A spike in all-cause deaths in recent weeks also suggests that some coronavirus-related deaths have not been captured by mortality statistics.)
Not a completely terrible formula but you're taking that 25% that is from samples that are now 9 days old (the 21% estimate is from samples now 20 days old) and applying it to current death stats. I would be willing to accept .5% as the IFR for NYC based on this as a worst case and with the fact being that New York City probably will have had one of the highest rates of mortality in the world due to the poor diet in the US and the high average age. This would not apply to all regions however. Gangelt showed .37% IFR. I will again caution against trying to apply this as a model for estimates with other outbreaks.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
His numbers show the detection rate? The estimate percentage of the population infected?
No. It is not saying that the number which have been detected represent said percentage of the total who have been infected. It doesn't mean that percentage has been infected.

9% detection rate means we had detected 9% of infections on average globally as of March 30th. Numbers have snowballed since then.

Also I moved this here.

An example to show what I mean:

As of march 30th we had detected 789,130 cases globally. This estimate claims that we were detecting 9% of infections at that time so:

(9/100) 789,130 = 8.76m actual infections on March 30. Not 9% of the damn world.
 
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abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
1,131,452 cases in the USA, if they only represent 9% of cases detected then the total number of cases would just over 10 million
Incorrect again. According to the study, on March 30th, 9% was the global average detection rate. The US detection rate was 6.59%. So you would multiply the number of cases confirmed on that day in the US with the estimated detection rate in the US. It would apply to that day, but a growth rate could be extrapolated and it would likely be consistent with the growth rate of confirmed cases. This could provide a rough estimate of current infections but you'd have to strongly caveat that it's an estimate and accept quite a margin of error.
Screenshot (91).png

Open this pdf and scroll to the data on page 3.
 

Attachments

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Incorrect again. According to the study, on March 30th, 9% was the global average detection rate. The US detection rate was 6.59%. So you would multiply the number of cases confirmed on that day in the US with the estimated detection rate in the US. It would apply to that day, but a growth rate could be extrapolated and it would likely be consistent with the growth rate of confirmed cases. This could provide a rough estimate of current infections but you'd have to strongly caveat that it's an estimate and accept quite a margin of error.
View attachment 4552370

Open this pdf and scroll to the data on page 3.
6.59 × 1131452 =‬ 7,456,268 cases in the USA
 

zeddd

Well-Known Member
Changes in reproctive rate are meaningless when seroprevalence hasn't been determined. Also, deaths everywhere are about to be redefined and counted now that it is known that the virus attacks the circulatory system primarily. Heart attacks and strokes aren't down, people with heart disease are just more vulnerable.



Cases are counted based on presented symptoms. That's who gets lab tested. Danes are young and have a good diet maybe. It's a small population and we can probably get good data from them but haven't yet.
The virus enters and replicates in cells with ace2 receptors, so lung epithelium, Intestine, blood vessels, lymph vessels and CNS. Is your point: the real rate of infection is unknown therefore the R rate is unreliable?
 
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