Another Republican President, Another Recession.

[hanimmal]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/11/02/economy-coronavirus-lame-duck/

 

[hanimmal]

 

[hanimmal]

https://apnews.com/article/control-of-senate-at-stake-election-4255da17a16505fb9ee20ae64b2153b3

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the Senate is a razor-close proposition in Tuesday’s election, as Republicans fight to retain their majority against a surge of Democratic candidates confronting the president’s allies across a vast political map.

Both parties see paths to victory, and the outcome might not be known on election night.

From New England to the Deep South, the Midwest to the Mountain West, Republican senators are defending seats in states once considered long shots for Democrats. Washington’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, the economic fallout and the nation’s uneasy mood are all on the ballot. Stunning amounts of cash have been flowing to Democrats from millions of Americans apparently voting with their pocketbooks; Republicans are tapping deep-pocketed donors to shore up GOP senators.

President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden swooped in on key states important to the Senate as they propelled their own campaigns in a final stretch.

MORE STORIES:

• – Increasingly bitter Colorado Senate race tests GOP viability
• – Open Senate race on tap for Election Day in Tennessee
• – AP News Guide: A look at Maine's general election

Securing the Senate majority will be vital for the winner of the presidency. Senators confirm administration nominees, including the Cabinet, and can propel or stall the White House agenda. With Republicans now controlling the chamber, 53-47, three or four seats will determine party control, depending on who wins the presidency because the vice president can break a tie.

“Let’s run through the tape,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, making a final campaign swing Monday in Kentuckyas he faces Democratic former fighter pilot Amy McGrath.

McConnell said he hoped to remain the Republican majority leader alongside Trump. But he acknowledged the tough Senate races could flip control to the Democrats. “Obviously, that depends on what happens,” he said.

The campaigns are competing across an expansive Senate map as Democrats put Republicans on defense deep into Trump country.

What started as a lopsided election cycle with Republicans defending 23 Senate seats, compared with 12 for Democrats, quickly became a starker referendum on the president and his party.

Some of the nation’s most well-known senators are in the fights of their political lives.

In South Carolina, Democrat Jaime Harrison is trying to topple GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the president’s top allies.

The two crisscrossed the state in a rush of final campaigning, Graham acknowledging the tight contest after Harrison raised a whopping $100 million by October, an unheard-of sum for the state. The senator, making TV appeals for cash, said he, too, hit the $100 million mark over the weekend.

Full Coverage: Senate elections
Stuck in Washington to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett a week before Election Day, senators quickly fanned out — some alongside the president — for last-ditch tours, often socially distanced in the pandemic, to shore up votes.

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina joined Trump’s rally in Fayetteville on Monday as he struggled to fend off Democrat Cal Cunningham despite the married challenger’s sexting scandal with a public relations strategist.

In one of the most-watched races in the nation, Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins made a final campaign stop in Aroostook County near her hometown, visiting workers in a sawmill. Democratic challenger Sara Gideon met voters at the Whistle Stop cafe for breakfast Monday.

The Maine race is one of several that could push past Election Day if no candidate breaks the 50% threshold. Collins has typically rallied support as a centrist with an independent streak, but the tight contest shows the difficulty GOP senators have appealing to Trump’s most ardent backers while also retaining support from more moderate voters.

Democrats have more than one route to secure the three or four seats needed to capture the majority, and GOP strategists privately conceded the incumbents will almost certainly suffer defeats in some key races.

Younger voters and more minorities are pushing some states toward Democrats. In Colorado, the parties have essentially stopped spending money for or against GOP Sen. Cory Gardner because it seems he is heading toward defeat by Democrat John Hickenlooper, a former governor.

Arizona could see two Democratic senators for the first time since last century if former astronaut Mark Kelly maintains his advantage over GOP Sen. Martha McSally for the seat once held by the late Republican John McCain.

Even the open seat in Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, is being contested.

“The better President Trump does in a state, the easier it is to win any race,” said Corry Bliss, a GOP strategist.

The biggest risks to Democrats come in Alabama and Michigan.

Republicans are expecting to reclaim the seat in Alabama, where Democratic Sen. Doug Jones pulled off a rare 2017 special election win in the Trump stronghold but now wages an uphill campaign against Republican Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn football coach.

In the presidential battleground of Michigan, Republicans have made an aggressive push for John James, a Black Republican businessman, as he rakes in cash to take on Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

“We think the numbers are moving,” said Senate Leadership Fund president Steven Law.

Still, voter turnout during the COVID-19 crisis remains key, and volatile, as more Americans than ever — nearing 100 million — cast early ballots.

Both Biden and Trump touched down in Georgia, where the state is seeing a boost of new voters. Georgia’s two Senate seats are at stake and could very well push to a Jan. 5 runoff if no candidate reaches beyond the 50% threshold.

GOP Sen. David Perdue, the former business executive Trump calls his favorite senator, is working to fend off Democrat Jon Ossoff, another candidate who has benefited from the “green wave” of donations.

Separately, GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler faces Republican Rep. Doug Collins, as well as Democrat Raphael Warnock, in a special election for the seat she was appointed to fill with the retirement of GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson.

It’s expected to be a long count in races across the country.

The political landscape is quickly changing from six years ago, when most of these senators last faced voters. It’s a reminder of how sharply the political climate has shifted in the Trump era.

In Montana, Republican Sen. Steve Daines is trying to brush back Democrat Steve Bullock, the governor, in a state where Trump was popular. Democrats created an opening by working hard to recruit a well-known candidate in Bullock, who also ran in the party’s primary for president.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst is fighting for a second term against Democrat Theresa Greenfield. Texas Sen. John Cornyn faces an upstart Democrat, MJ Hegar, in the once solidly Republican state.

And in Alaska, newcomer Al Gross, a doctor, has broken state fundraising records in part with viral campaign ads as he challenges GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.

 

[hanimmal]

Reminds me of the Tea Party in 2010, but with Trump signs.

 

[hanimmal]

Debt clock check it out.

The debt clock doesn't mean that money is going to be 'printed'. It represents money that overtime will be paid back.

And do you know who mostly invests in America? Americans. And nobody wants to destabilize the money system that they use.

Also all that 'cash' America pays out to these other nations, will need to eventually be used to trade with other nations. So it stimulates future trade among nations, which helps us all.

It is very complex system we have, but it works very well.

I dedicated this thread to the way that the Right wing propaganda has skewed what has happened with our economy.

If you are afraid of our monetary system, I would just try to get you to understand how the system we have now has has drastically reduced the frequency and severity of our economic recessions since they started to use monetary policy after ww2.



The thing is, rich people like Trump grew up, loved Recessions, because they had enough capital to buy up all the land/businesses that were developed for dirt cheat from the middle class that build it up but lost everything because the money system was easily able to be bankrupted as rich people pulled out their gold, crashing the economy.

The reason they work so hard to sell the type of information you are talking about, is because they want people to look the other way while they evict people who haven't paid rent for months, and those people move to the burbs out from the city.

This will allow the mega wealthy to snatch up all those properties and when the cities get rebuilt, they will make a killing.

Don't fall for what the Republican party has been running on since the 50's. As of today there is only one party in America that is legislating for 100% of the population here, the Democratic party.

Every not in the Wealthy White Heterosexual Male Only agenda is not socialism.

 

[hanimmal]

I feel President Biden's success or failure will still depend greatly on COVID, barring war or something. One scenario for the 2022 midterms is that COVID has been pretty much licked and that the economy is really starting to roll. As someone said, Rounding the Corner, churches packed for Easter, Roaring Back. If that happens then inflation could be a problem. Wages always lag inflation. It's complicated. I doubt Georgia will elect two Democrat Senators. So I hope things can be better after mid terms.

Interest rates would increase and the Fed could start pulling out some of that cash in the market pretty easily so it shouldn't be too tough to rebound from some inflation.

They know better than to pull when the Republicans did back in the early 80's.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-led-to-the-high-interest
Question: What were the causes and circumstances that led to the high interest rates in the 80’s? Was it inability to effect a change or inaction in addressing the issue?

Paul Solman: If by “interest rates” you mean the rate set by the Fed — the Fed funds rate — it rose to TWENTY PERCENT in 1980. But no, it was not inaction but just the opposite: a deliberate rise in rates triggered by inflation.

Let’s take a step back for a moment. In general, over the long haul, interest rates are determined by the market. Think of a market interest rate as the sum of three separate factors: waiting, repayment risk, and inflation.

First, waiting — also known as the time value of money. Imagine an inflation-free environment, such as today’s. Which would you take: a thousand dollars today or a thousand dollars, guaranteed, a year from now? Unless you’re a very unusual person, it’s the thousand right now, so you can do something with the money. If you forgo the money, you generally need to be paid something for doing so, for waiting — in recent history, around 2 percent a year.

Second is the risk of not being paid back. This is why folks with low FICOscores have to pay such high rates of interest. This obviously varies enormously. But the U.S. government has generally been thought to pay the “risk-free” rate: 0 percent for risk.

The rest of the interest rate is inflation. If money is losing value and you lend it, you’re going to expect to be reimbursed for the loss.

In the late 1970s, in America, prices were rising fast. In other words, inflation was running rampant, usually thought to be the result of the oil crisis of that era, government overspending, and the self-fulfilling prophecy of higher prices leading to higher wages leading to higher prices. The Fed was resolved to stop inflation. So, Chairman Paul Volcker (who is pictured above) kept raising rates in 1980 and ’81, eventually bringing both the economy and inflation to a standstill.



The Fed showed great “ability to effect change,” to use your phrase, though the cost of killing inflation was a deep recession. You could hardly call the Fed’s behavior “inaction.”

Regan was brutal with people's jobs shutting down because he wanted to stop the inflation. There are better ways to deal with inflation that don't cause unemployment to soar.




It is hard to not think retrospectively from what we have learned about the scam the Republicans have been running since around the 50s.

 

[Boru420]

 

[Wattzzup]

View attachment 4732244

Republicans don’t mind taking hand outs from republicans. It’s when dems take hand outs they frown upon.

 

[hanimmal]

It's called supply and demand. It's well established. Look it up.

Something interesting about the 'supply and demand curve'.

The Republicans decided that there is not a 'long run' when considering supply and demand and stunted the effectiveness of their economic policies. They are stuck in a pre-computer age of gut responses to very real and very predictable economic problems and have caused recessions in every term since they decided to stick to their political troll in the 70s.

This is why once again we are looking at the Democratic party to have to be responsible and fix another broken Republican economy. I really hope that the Georgia elections give Biden the ability to help bail us all out from the Wealthy White Heterosexual Male Only agenda's latest land grab as evictions sky rocket and businesses close.

 

[TrippleDip]

Wealthy White Heterosexual Male Only agenda's latest land grab as evictions sky rocket and businesses close.

While I agree that the whole privatization, and harm to small business has been one of the sickest parts of this pandemic. I don't believe that white people are overrepresented in a list of the corporations that stand to gain from this and I shudder to think of how you (or anyone) knows all their sexual orientations in such detail.

One day you will realize that between the truth of corporations fucking over the little guys >because they can< doesn't have to revolve around some concerted hairbrained conspiracy theory about race or some other government doing what is more easily explained by people chosing what's best for themselves.

 

[hanimmal]

While I agree that the whole privatization, and harm to small business has been one of the sickest parts of this pandemic.

It is horrifying. All that capital that those business owners invested in now is going to get put up for sale and we will witness the next generational redistribution of wealth to the top once again.

I don't believe that white people are overrepresented in a list of the corporations that stand to gain from this and I shudder to think of how you (or anyone) knows all their sexual orientations in such detail.

Are you joking? The wealthiest people in our nation are almost exclusively old rich white guys. Who all have families looking forward to all those handouts. WTF would you call that demographic?

You're pretending like because they might not have gained on a stock ticker that they have not been able to invest their billions in buying up anything that wasn't nailed down as it goes on sale further increasing their net worth when things get back to normal growth.

 

[hanimmal]

I just wanted to double check I wasn't full of shit. And I wasn't. The only one that doesn't qualify is Alice Walton whose family looks like they just split up daddies money and all are rich AF now enough that she breaks into the top 15.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/nation-world/forbes-400-2020-jeff-bezos-bill-gates-remain-richest-in-america/507-eb179ab4-11cb-4754-b1ed-c0e96dce4f9e

 

[Fogdog]

I just wanted to double check I wasn't full of shit. And I wasn't. The only one that doesn't qualify is Alice Walton whose family looks like they just split up daddies money and all are rich AF now enough that she breaks into the top 15.
View attachment 4743239
https://www.king5.com/article/news/nation-world/forbes-400-2020-jeff-bezos-bill-gates-remain-richest-in-america/507-eb179ab4-11cb-4754-b1ed-c0e96dce4f9e

You are WRONG!!!! There is one gey man in that list.

 

[TrippleDip]

I just wanted to double check I wasn't full of shit. And I wasn't. The only one that doesn't qualify is Alice Walton whose family looks like they just split up daddies money and all are rich AF now enough that she breaks into the top 15.
View attachment 4743239
https://www.king5.com/article/news/nation-world/forbes-400-2020-jeff-bezos-bill-gates-remain-richest-in-america/507-eb179ab4-11cb-4754-b1ed-c0e96dce4f9e

Lmao, you posted a link of 15 people, but lets remove 11 and 12 because they're all the same fortune, now you have a list of 13 people of which 2 (15%) are women, 1 is african, several are immigrants, four (30%) are jews and seven are white (if you count slavs as white, which I don't, but I'm being generous) or 54% total are white and only 38% are white cis male. This is in a 70% white country and you think this is proof of a lack of diversity? Proof of a lack of advantages for immigrants? Wow.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Socialism is just a dog whistle word for them, it's not even about ideology, most don't even know the meaning of either word. It's about forming a sharing community with others they don't like. Look at the military as a good example, they used to be all for it, but much of the military are made up of minorities now and equality and merit are the ethos of the organizations, the ideas they are asking these people to fight for.

Respect for the Military among these people is lip service only, many who were inclined, eschew service, because a black female NCO will be ordering their ass around and they have to compete for promotion with them. May racists who serve with black people have their attitudes changed too, in large and small ways. The military vote went for Biden by 80% and that was before Trump tried to disenfranchise them across multiple states. Socially the military were ahead of society with integration starting after the second world war and don't ask don't tell, they would like to go further, but that is political.

 

[hanimmal]

Republicans throwing up another roadblock to our economy by pushing through another Trump troll appointment.
link to Washington Post story

Republican lawmakers are about to start an arms race politicizing a government institution critical to the country’s functioning, one that spent decades painstakingly establishing its credibility as a neutral, apolitical body of professionals.

No, not the Supreme Court. This time it’s the Federal Reserve.

The Senate is expected to vote as soon as this week on Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed. Simply put, Shelton is a demonstrably unqualified partisan quack who has no business working at the world’s most powerful central bank. Her nomination has been condemned by hundreds of economists and Fed alumni, including prominent Republicans and at least seven Nobel laureates. The senators poised to confirm her appear to know she is unfit; ahead of February hearings, a former Republican Senate Banking Committee aide said that “the idea of even calling her as a witness for something was beyond the pale” not long ago.

Republican lawmakers who now support Shelton’s appointment to one of the most important economic policymaking jobs in the world have struggled to explain why. In damningly faint praise, they admit that sure, she might believe ridiculous things, but she’d serve alongside competent people. So she can’t cause that much damage, right?

To be clear, these lawmakers have generally not endorsed Shelton’s stances.

Perhaps most objectionable is her multi-decade effort to bring back the gold standard. This might be popular among the right-wing fringe, but it was abandoned worldwide long ago and remains almost unanimously rejected by economists. For good reasons, including that gold prices are volatile. Linking the dollar to gold can also restrict liquidity when the economy needs it most — as happened during the Great Depression.

Neither Shelton nor her Senate supporters have adequately accounted for her abrupt about-faces on other beliefs — flips that coincide with her party’s political interests.

For example: When a Democrat was president, she fearmongered about impending “ruinous inflation” and called for higher interest rates even though the economy was weak. (The Fed, quite responsibly, ignored her.) Then, once Trump was elected, she called for cutting interest rates “as expeditiously as possible,” even while the economy was strong. Likewise, pre-Trump, she accused the Fed of nefariously weakening the dollar to boost exports; under Trump, she agreed with the president that the Fed should weaken the dollar to boost exports.

She has also questioned whether the Fed should even exist — before she was nominated to serve on its board.

Senate Republicans have confirmed other unqualified cranks to senior Trump administration jobs — including to helm departments that nominees themselves earlier said shouldn’t exist. But both parties have long seen the Fed as too important to the domestic and global economies to politicize. A central bank requires political independence, real and perceived, to function, as events in Argentina and pre-euro Italy have amply demonstrated.

The four sitting Fed officials appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate are all knowledgeable, apolitical professionals. And when Trump tried last year to appoint a couple of partisans to join them, GOP senators admirably blocked the nominations.

It’s unclear why Republicans are lowering the bar now — in the midst of a historic economic crisis. Another pending Fed nominee, Christopher Waller, is qualified for the job and still hasn’t gotten a vote; yet somehow Shelton is getting jammed through ahead of him.

One possible explanation: a desire to salt the earth for incoming President-elect Joe Biden.

Once a Democrat is back in the White House, Shelton might revive her previous forewarnings about “ruinous inflation” and insist on hiking interest rates. On this she would likely be outvoted, of course. Still, she might cause substantial damage because she may effectively have veto powerover emergency lending programs the Fed is using to fight the pandemic recession. This could happen if at least two sitting board members vacate their posts early — which seems quite possible given recent Fed turnover.

Shelton’s confirmation could represent a point of no return for corrupting the mission and functionality of the Fed, and destroying whatever bipartisan resolve remained to not tank the economy for political gain. For the past several years, many on the left have agitated for more monetary and fiscal stimulus, even though a stronger economy might have boosted Trump’s reelection chances. But as we recently saw with the partisan effort to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee — and the calls for retaliatory “court-packing” that followed — Democrats may come to resent this sort of unilateral disarmament. An arms race to put increasingly ideological or partisan people on the Fed may not be far off.

I hope I’m wrong — both that Shelton is about to be approved and that her confirmation would escalate efforts to sabotage the job market or price stability while the other party is in power. But if I’m right, a dark new economic era looms.

 

[hanimmal]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/19/emergency-lending-programs-fed-treasury/

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday said he would not extend most of the emergency lending programs run in tandem with the Federal Reserve, a move the central bank immediately criticized, citing the fragile recovery.

The Fed’s exceedingly rare public response reflected a government divided on how to act as the pandemic surges across the nation, threatening a new wave of shutdowns and marking an inflection point of the economic recovery.

In a letter to Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, Mnuchin not only said that several of the programs would wind down at the end of the year, but he also requested that unspent money allocated to the Fed under the first stimulus effort, the Cares Act, be reallocated by Congress. However, the Treasury Department does not have the sole authority to reallocate the funds and would need to secure Fed agreement.

The letter triggered a rare public statement from the Fed on Thursday evening.

“The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy,” the central bank said.

The Treasury Department’s move would end most of the Fed’s emergency lending facilities, as well as two highly-scrutinized programs — the Main Street lending program and the municipal liquidity facility — which issue loans to struggling businesses and local governments. Mnuchin also requested a 90-day extension for a few of the programs that operate through the markets.

The Treasury and the Fed jointly established a suite of emergency programs in the early days of the pandemic — and they have at times clashed over how the programs should be structured and how effective they can be. The shared responsibility also means that certain decisions can’t be made by either Powell or Mnuchin alone, setting the stage for the surprisingly outward-facing clash.

Raging virus triggers new shutdown orders and economy braces for fresh wave of pain

“There have been disagreements in the past, but they’re usually handled out of public sight,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. “It’s unusual. But then these are really unusual times.”

The decision to curb the Fed’s lending powers comes as new economic data signals the U.S. economy is being newly battered by a spike in coronavirus cases, triggering a new wave of government-ordered closures, restrictions and shutdowns. Unemployment insurance claims rose last week for the first time since early October.

Democrats swiftly criticized Mnuchin’s decision as a politically motivated attempt to hurt the economy President-elect Joe Biden is set to inherit. They expressed concern that Senate Republicans could push for the funding to be repurposed in the next stimulus package, decreasing the overall amount Congress approves in economic relief.

“Secretary Mnuchin is removing critical support from a weak economy against the Federal Reserve’s wishes. This is economic sabotage,” Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement. “Secretary Mnuchin is salting the earth in an attempt to inflict political pain on President-elect Biden.”

There is also the broader concern among Democrats and economists that ending programs would eliminate a backstop to the markets before the recovery is fully formed. In a statement Thursday night, Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, called for the programs to be extended and warned that “American businesses and workers are weary of these political machinations when they are doing everything in their power to keep our economy going.”

The Fed has given no signal that it’s ready to wind down these programs. Earlier this week, Powell said that the Fed was committed to using all of its tools “for as long as it takes until the job is well and truly done” and that “when the right time comes, and I don’t think that time is yet or very soon, we will put those tools away.

At a press conference earlier this month, Powell said that the Fed was only beginning to turn to questions around extending the facilities.

“And in terms of the process, this is a decision that of course we have to make and will make jointly with the Treasury Department,” Powell said.

As Washington scrambles for more bailout money, the Fed sits on mountain of untapped funds

Although the Main Street lending program and municipal liquidity program have been widely criticized for their onerous loan terms and meager uptake, Fed officials have argued for months that it would be premature to cut off that support until the recovery is sustained and the economy survives the dark winter ahead.

In March, Congress allotted $454 billion to the Treasury Department to support the central bank’s emergency lending programs, including those for struggling businesses and local governments. Those lending programs have recently become a kind of political football.
Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.), who could soon take the helm of the Senate Banking Committee, said those programs have served their purpose.

In a statement Thursday evening, Toomey said Congress’s intent with the Cares Act made clear the programs were meant to be temporary.

“These facilities, which were established in response to the unprecedented market turmoil caused by the covid-19 pandemic earlier this year, have successfully achieved their intended purpose: stabilizing credit markets so private credit could once again flow to businesses, states, and municipalities,” Toomey said. “These temporary facilities helped to both normalize markets and produce record levels of liquidity.”

Even so, much of the money entrusted to the Fed has hardly been touched,and it’s unclear how much money could get out the door given specific rules about how the money should be spent. Of the $454 billion pot allotted from the Treasury Department under the Cares Act, only $195 billion has been specifically committed to cover any losses the Fed might take through its programs, including through loans that companies fail to repay. As of last month, the remaining $259 billion still has not been committed to any of the Fed’s specific programs or for any other purpose.

 

[hanimmal]

Just as Biden will claim Trump's economy as his in 2020.

 

[hanimmal]

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-jobless-claims-unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-01d54b8c5f65a813a09df482aa4b6786

WASHINGTON (AP) — Gripped by the accelerating viral outbreak, the U.S. economy is under pressure from persistent layoffs, diminished income and nervous consumers, whose spending is needed to drive a recovery from the pandemic.

A flurry of data released Wednesday suggested that the spread of the virus is intensifying the threats to an economy still struggling to recover from the deep recession that struck in early spring.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid rose last week for a second straight week to 778,000, evidence that many employers are still slashing jobs more than eight months after the virus hit. Before the pandemic, weekly jobless claims typically amounted to only about 225,000. Layoffs are still historically high, with many businesses unable to fully reopen and some, especially restaurants and bars, facing tightened restrictions.

Consumers increased their spending last month by just 0.5%, the weakest rise since the pandemic erupted. The tepid figure suggested that on the eve of the crucial holiday shopping season, Americans remain anxious with the virus spreading and Congress failing to enact any further aid for struggling individuals, businesses, cities and states. At the same time, the government said Wednesday that income, which provides the fuel for consumer spending, fell 0.7% in October.

The spike in virus cases is heightening pressure on companies and individuals, with fear growing that the economy could suffer a “double-dip” recession as states and cities reimpose curbs on businesses. The economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, is expected to eke out a modest gain this quarter before weakening — and perhaps shrinking — early next year. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, predicts annual GDP growth of around 2% in the October-December quarter, with the possibility of GDP turning negative in the first quarter of 2021.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase have slashed their forecast for the first quarter to a negative 1% annual GDP rate.

“This winter will be grim,” they wrote in a research note.

Zandi warned that until Congress agrees on a new stimulus plan to replace a now-expired multi-trillion-dollar aid package enacted in the spring, the threat to the economy will grow.

“The economy is going to be very uncomfortable between now and when we get the next fiscal rescue package,” Zandi said. “If lawmakers can’t get it together, it will be very difficult for the economy to avoid going back into a recession.”

Some corners of the economy still show strength, or at least resilience. Manufacturing is one. The government said Wednesday that orders for durable goods rose 1.3% in October, a sign that purchases of goods remain solid even while the economy’s much larger service sector — everything from restaurants, hotels and airlines to gyms, hair salons and entertainment venues — is still struggling. But economists caution that factories, too, remain at risk from the surge in coronavirus cases, which could throttle demand in coming months.

And sales of new homes remained steady in October, the latest sign that ultra-low mortgage rates and a paucity of properties for sale have spurred demand and made the housing market a rare economic bright spot.

But at the heart of the economy are the job market and consumer spending, which remain especially vulnerable to the spike in virus cases. Most economists say the distribution of an effective vaccine would likely reinvigorate growth next year. Yet they warn that any sustained recovery will also hinge on whether Congress can agree soon on a sizable aid package to carry the economy through what could be a bleak winter.

“With infections continuing to rise at an elevated pace and curbs on business operations widening, layoffs are likely to pick up over coming weeks,″ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The government said he total number of people who are continuing to receive traditional state unemployment benefits dropped to 6.1 million from 6.4 million the previous week. That figure has been declining for months. It shows that more Americans are finding jobs and no longer receiving unemployment aid. But it also indicates that many jobless people have used up their state unemployment aid — which typically expires after six months.

More Americans are collecting benefits under programs that were set up to cushion the economic pain from the pandemic. For the week of Nov. 7, the number of people collecting benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program — which offers coverage to gig workers and others who don’t qualify for traditional aid — rose by 466,000 to 9.1 million.

And the number of people receiving aid under the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program — which offers 13 weeks of federal benefits to those who have exhausted state jobless aid — rose by 132,000 to 4.5 million.

The data firm Womply says that 21% of small businesses were shuttered at the start of this month, reflecting a steady increase from June’s 16% rate. Consumer spending at local businesses is down 27% this month from a year ago, marking a deterioration from a 20% year-over-year drop in October, Womply found.

The heart of the problem is an untamed virus: The number of confirmed infections in the United States has shot up to more than 170,000 a day, from fewer than 35,000 in early September. The arrival of cold weather in much of the country could further worsen the health crisis.

Meanwhile, another economic threat looms: The impending expiration of the two supplemental federal unemployment programs the day after Christmas could end benefits completely for 9.1 million jobless people. Congress has failed for months to agree on any new stimulus aid for jobless individuals and struggling businesses after the expiration of a multi-trillion dollar rescue package it enacted in March.

The expiration of benefits will make it harder for the unemployed to make rent payments, afford food or keep up with utility bills. Most economists agree that because unemployed people tend to quickly spend their benefits, such aid is effective in boosting the economy.

When the viral outbreak struck in early spring, employers slashed 22 million jobs in March and April, sending the unemployment rate rocketing to 14.7%, the highest rate since the Great Depression. Since then, the economy has regained more than 12 million jobs. Yet the nation still has about 10 million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic erupted.

All of which has left many Americans anxious and uncertain. The Conference Board, a business research group, reported Tuesday that consumer confidence weakened in November, pulled down by lowered expectations for the next six months.

And the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers reported Wednesday that sentiment declined slightly this month, and remained far below where it was before the pandemic struck. With the resurgence of the virus depressing the outlook of consumers, the sentiment index fell to its lowest point since August.

“Gloomier consumer expectations will weigh on spending as the holidays approach,” cautioned Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics.

 

[hanimmal]

• Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
• New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
• Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
• African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
• Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
• Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
• Under my Administration, veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
• Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
• The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
• 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
• Retail sales surged last month, up another 6 percent over last year.
• Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
• As a result of our tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
• Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
• Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
• Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
• Record number of regulations eliminated.
• Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
• Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
• My Administration is providing more affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans.
• Last month, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. And thanks to our efforts, many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases.
• We reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars this year alone.
• Signed Right-To-Try legislation.
• Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
• We have reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during my first year in office.
• Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
• Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
• United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
• Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord.
• Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan.
• Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
• NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
• Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces.
• Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
• Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
• Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
• Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
• Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court.
• Issued Executive Order to keep open Guantanamo Bay.
• Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak.
• Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
• Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect our national security.
• Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices.
• Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year.
• Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement.
• We have begun BUILDING THE WALL. Republicans want STRONG BORDERS and NO CRIME. Democrats want OPEN BORDERS which equals MASSIVE CRIME.

Do I need to continue?

I love these lists, they are basically nonsense mixed in with some random facts that ignore recent history.

Obama's last three years were better than Trump's first 3 economically.

And it is not a shocker that the further we get away from the racist suppression of minority and women late last millennia that their UE rates would be steadily decreasing. I also wonder how that trend has held up the last year.

Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem for absolutely nothing in return was a garbage business move by Trump.

Nancy had to to do the heavy lifting of fixing the mess of the new-NAFTA trade agreement that Trump was too sloppy to do.

Those tariffs you listed actually cost our economy about $1.4 trillion.

China trade deal (after hammering our farmers and raising taxes on our citizens) got us back to less than we would have been if we had our allies in the region backing our play, when Trump shortsightedly pulled us from the trade deal.

And that is just a sampling of your ridiculous cut and pasted list. If you want to discuss anything particular on it I am all in.

Nice to meet you.