War

[Roger A. Shrubber]

it is an impressive achievement, and the Ukrainians are keeping it rolling pretty well, but this kind of illustrates how far they still have to go to get rid of the orcs...

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Putin couldn't allow Ukraine to develop and grow strong, it wasn't really about NATO, it was about economics and systems of government. Ukraine would have been an energy competitor with Russia and signed contracts with oil companies in 2010 to develop their oil and gas, the war in Donbas put an end to that and they pulled out. Even though Vlad might have had warm and fuzzy feelings about Ukraine and a fuzzier notion of history, I feel money was the primary motivator.

Vlad was heading for totalitarianism long before the invasion of Ukraine and a prosperous liberal democratic Ukraine right next door would be a threat, since Russia could not prosper under Putin. He had a fortune pouring every year for a couple of decades and look at the state of Russia FFS, this was economic mismanagement and corruption on an epic scale. If you are wondering where all the money went, a lot of it is in the west, there were limited investment opportunities in Russia for the amount of cash they were ripping off, so much of the corrupt money went abroad. That's why Ukraine could end up with a lot of seized Russian money, they have more of it abroad than most other countries and the majority of it is corrupt cash. Not many of these people invested in Russia to finance new enterprises and manufacturing, they were like an oil rich middle east kingdom and bought everything from abroad and invested their money abroad too. Guys like Trump, Rudy and Manafort only got the crumbs that fell from the table, but were eager for more.

Why is Vladimir Putin so obsessed with Ukraine?
220,418 views Sep 14, 2022 Guardian correspondent Luke Harding chronicles the key historical events that led to the invasion of Ukraine, from the Euromaidan protests to the annexation of Crimea, and explains why Putin's belief that Russians and Ukrainians are 'one people' is rooted in history from a thousand years ago.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Even 20,000 troops are not a lot for a country of over 40 million to lose in a war, considering the stakes and it's nature. I say this to illustrate how long Ukraine could fight for, if supported. So far they have an estimated 10,000 dead and by the time it's over it could be 20,000 and a couple of times that with life altering physical wounds. I think this war might produce less PTSD among the Ukrainian troops than would be expected, the cause they are fighting for, high morale and social support could make a difference. Every loss is an unnecessary tragedy though and not just for the Ukrainians.

So far civilian deaths in Ukraine have been much lower than initially expected and are reported to be well under 10,000, many people simply became refugees, another tragedy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570098047916408834

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

He says 100K people were killed in Mariupol alone, I think this number is a bit high, the numbers I've seen coming from the UN are much lower. They only lost 10,000 troops killed so far according to their own numbers and civilian casualties are about half that number according to many sources. Time will tell I guess.

'They Know What They're Fighting For': Ukraine Dominates Putin's Army
88,608 views Sep 15, 2022 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise visit to troops in a town retaken from Russian forces after a string of wins in their fight to run Putin's army out of Ukraine. Yale Professor Timothy Snyder, who recently met with Zelenskyy, tells MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell he believes this war is at a "turning point."

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Perhaps about the same time as America puts Trump away... Joe might get a doubleheader before the end of the year folks and help win the election too, he's up to 45% in the polls and climbing. Oh yeah, he just averted a rail strike that would have crippled America. The GOP are split on abortion and in a panic about it too, while Trump's troubles grow.

'State of shock': Former Putin aide on Russian political system
350,418 views Sep 14, 2022 Abbas Gallyamov, who was a speechwriter for Russian president Vladimir Putin, predicts Russia's elites will begin looking to replace Putin within the next several months.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Russian official to CNN: Putin should resign
57,653 views Sep 15, 2022 Russian official Nikita Yuferev was fined for speaking out against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yuferev continues to call for Putin's resignation as Ukraine continues to gain more victories over Russian forces in their country.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The Ukrainians will capture a Helluva lot more equipment if operations in the south near Kherson work out and perhaps tens of thousands of Russian prisoners. Further operations to cut off the enemy will yield even more Russian equipment of all kinds and I'm sure they are planing on how to deal with it and that's where civilian and volunteer organizations come into play and perhaps Alex Vindman is a very busy man right now, since this was in his wheelhouse. There might end up being enough equipment that it's worth while to refurbish it all and even make ammo for it.

There could well be enough tanks and other shit to equip an entire army FFS and most of the older reservists are very familiar with this stuff and little training is required. They could also give it away, once equipped with modern arms, to places like a new regime in Belarus or even to Georgia, or to any of Russia's many neighbors who want to assert their independence. This won't just be a loss for Russia, it will be a catastrophe, they will lose much of their army and it's irreplaceable equipment, equipment and ammo that will be turned against them.

HOW RUSSIA (UNWILLINGLY) BECOME THE BIGGEST SUPLIER WITH WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE || 2022

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

i have a few questions about the fairly near future...
when it becomes obvious that the russians cannot prosecute their war any longer, and they are forced to withdraw in humiliation...are they going to willingly surrender the war criminals that have been identified for trial? including putin? i highly doubt that. if they do not, are we going to relax sanctions against them? i certainly hope not. they have to be punished to the fullest extent possible, if they're to learn that this isn't behavior they should exhibit again. until they surrender every prisoner, surrender every war criminal, make arrangements to pay reparations to Ukraine that are acceptable to Ukraine, and make a sincere apology to the rest of the world, the sanctions should stay in full force, if not strengthened. the world is changing and adapting...they can change and adapt to do without russian oil and wheat...anything russia can supply, can be supplied from somewhere else, with a little development.
how many nations would appreciate if we helped them develop their natural gas industry? if we helped out their farmers with some new equipment, in exchange for a promise of where those crops were to go?...russia is ALREADY irrelevant, if we develop a few alternatives

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

If Ukraine captures a lot of Russian equipment, enough for a dozens of BTGs when added to what they already have. Would it be worth a billion to Uncle Sam or someone else to have it all refurbished, as a make work project and perhaps to give away to future allies? Reline the artillery tubes and start making the 152mm projectiles for them, the propellant can be simply be reloaded in the casings. Russia will soon be beat and Ukraine will have western arms, so other than a very powerful reserve, they can also use it to cause Russia future pain by giving it away or selling it.

 

[cannabineer]

If Ukraine captures a lot of Russian equipment, enough for a dozens of BTGs when added to what they already have. Would it be worth a billion to Uncle Sam or someone else to have it all refurbished, as a make work project and perhaps to give away to future allies? Reline the artillery tubes and start making the 152mm projectiles for them, the propellant can be simply be reloaded in the casings. Russia will soon be beat and Ukraine will have western arms, so other than a very powerful reserve, they can also use it to cause Russia future pain by giving it away or selling it.

At the rate at which weapons are evolving, it’s essentially high-grade steel scrap.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

i have a few questions about the fairly near future...
when it becomes obvious that the russians cannot prosecute their war any longer, and they are forced to withdraw in humiliation...are they going to willingly surrender the war criminals that have been identified for trial? including putin? i highly doubt that. if they do not, are we going to relax sanctions against them? i certainly hope not. they have to be punished to the fullest extent possible, if they're to learn that this isn't behavior they should exhibit again. until they surrender every prisoner, surrender every war criminal, make arrangements to pay reparations to Ukraine that are acceptable to Ukraine, and make a sincere apology to the rest of the world, the sanctions should stay in full force, if not strengthened. the world is changing and adapting...they can change and adapt to do without russian oil and wheat...anything russia can supply, can be supplied from somewhere else, with a little development.
how many nations would appreciate if we helped them develop their natural gas industry? if we helped out their farmers with some new equipment, in exchange for a promise of where those crops were to go?...russia is ALREADY irrelevant, if we develop a few alternatives

Initially they are going to make it easy for them to leave, that is the priority, getting them out, if they make it clear that they will filter out the officers for war crimes, it might make them refuse to surrender, or it could cause the senior officers to remove themselves from Ukraine altogether and aid the confusion. Getting them to surrender or leave without their equipment is the best thing for the Ukrainians, it gives them an army's worth of stuff that they know how to operate and maintain. It will mean that many of the better quality territorial units can be equipped with tanks and artillery adding to the combat power of the regular army, or they can be added to the regular army since it it might be awhile before western tanks show up.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

At the rate at which weapons are evolving, it’s essentially high-grade steel scrap.

It will be good enough to use against the Russians for a long time to come, other modern armies not so much. Considering the state the Russian army will be in when the Ukrainians are done with them, it should do just fine for the many small powers around Russia, if leavened with some modern western arms like Stingers, Javelins and NLAWS.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

At the rate at which weapons are evolving, it’s essentially high-grade steel scrap.

they seem to have pretty good supplies of both the shells, and the weapons that fire them, get someone working on getting those seized shells together with those seized weapons, use up all the available ammo, then go back to using what they had goven to them by allies...they should be able to kill a lot of orcs with their own seized weapon systems. they can worry about what to do with them after the war, after the war.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Initially they are going to make it easy for them to leave, that is the priority, getting them out, if they make it clear that they will filter out the officers for war crimes, it might make them refuse to surrender, or it could cause the senior officers to remove themselves from Ukraine altogether and aid the confusion. Getting them to surrender or leave without their equipment is the best thing for the Ukrainians, it gives them an army's worth of stuff that they know how to operate and maintain. It will mean that many of the better quality territorial units can be equipped with tanks and artillery adding to the combat power of the regular army, or they can be added to the regular army since it it might be awhile before western tanks show up.

i'm talking about after the war...and who cares if they resist on the way out? the reason they're on the way out is that their asses are freshly kicked, what the fuck are they going to do? die? who fucking cares, just more fertilizer to help replace all the food they stole. more sunflowers along the roadside

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

At the rate at which weapons are evolving, it’s essentially high-grade steel scrap.

All ya need to make those old soviet rocket launchers precision weapons like MLRS, are different warheads screwed on with GPS guidance packages and a suitcase in the old truck to program them via blue tooth. The Ukrainians are upgrading the old Russian tanks already and I imagine the same can be done with refurbished towed artillery by bolting new tech onto old steel.

 

[cannabineer]

It will be good enough to use against the Russians for a long time to come, other modern armies not so much. Considering the state the Russian army will be in when the Ukrainians are done with them, it should do just fine for the many small powers around Russia, if leavened with some modern western arms like Stingers, Javelins and NLAWS.

I think one of the lessons of this war is that the artillery barrage, a mainstay of war for at least two centuries, is at long last becoming obsolete.

The other great defining weapon of the twentieth century, the main battle tank, still has life left, but is no longer king of the battlefield.

These weapons are imo becoming the signature of marginal players. The future belongs to remotely operated and fully autonomous smart weapons.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

i'm talking about after the war...and who cares if they resist on the way out? the reason they're on the way out is that their asses are freshly kicked, what the fuck are they going to do? die? who fucking cares, just more fertilizer to help replace all the food they stole. more sunflowers along the roadside

Any ultimate peace treaty might include the prosecution of war criminals, we will have to see. There might be some personal payback happening by individuals and groups operating in Russia though, especially if political conditions there get chaotic in the post war. The fighting might be over in Ukraine proper, but the war will continue and will get down to tit for tac attacks inside each others territory. Ukraine will make Russia feel the pain for any missile strikes from inside Russia. The best defense is a good offense, that's why I think there will be trouble in Belarus next, supported by Ukraine and Poland. Whatever army Vlad has left will be finished there and perhaps by their own equipment captured in Ukraine.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I think one of the lessons of this war is that the artillery barrage, a mainstay of war for at least two centuries, is at long last becoming obsolete.

The other great defining weapon of the twentieth century, the main battle tank, still has life left, but is no longer king of the battlefield.

These weapons are imo becoming the signature of marginal players. The future belongs to remotely operated and fully autonomous smart weapons.

Oh I agree, but the Russian sanctions will go on for a long time and the army is broken and rotten to the core, change will be a long time coming, political change has to come first. Refurbished it would be enough to deal with them or give them pause, it would make work and help the Ukrainian economy too and should cost a minimum amount. I guess we will have to see what the final haul is, when added to what they already have.

 

[cannabineer]

Oh I agree, but the Russian sanctions will go on for a long time and the army is broken and rotten to the core, change will be a long time coming, political change has to come first. Refurbished it would be enough to deal with them or give them pause, it would make work and help the Ukrainian economy too and should cost a minimum amount. I guess we will have to see what the final haul is, when added to what they already have.

There is a calculus here that I sum up this way:

is the temporary advantage gained by using weapons whose main feature is a sort of random barbarity
enough to balance the disadvantage to a nation for accepting randomly barbarous weapons as legitimate?

I don’t know. For as long as we have had history, the awfulness of war has had a primary deterrent value. When deterrence failed, the effect on enemy morale has been used as the justification. Strip away the layers, and what is left is our capacity for exultant sadistic rage. Meting out disproportionate payback feels awful good.

I think fighting that last element of the human condition, seeking moral higher ground, has intrinsic value. But the valuation, and the simple math that follows, is pretty far above my pay grade.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

There is a calculus here that I sum up this way:

is the temporary advantage gained by using weapons whose main feature is a sort of random barbarity
enough to balance the disadvantage to a nation for accepting randomly barbarous weapons as legitimate?

I don’t know. For as long as we have had history, the awfulness of war has had a primary deterrent value. When deterrence failed, the effect on enemy morale has been used as the justification. Strip away the layers, and what is left is our capacity for exultant sadistic rage. Meting out disproportionate payback feels awful good.

I think fighting that last element of the human condition, seeking moral higher ground, has intrinsic value. But the valuation, and the simple math that follows, is pretty far above my pay grade.

The fact is there is going to be a shortage of western weapons and munitions for awhile to come, years in fact for some weapons and munitions. So it would be reasonable to assume that if sufficient Russian/Soviet equipment is captured and the primary threat is Russia, it would be refurbished and ammo made for it, though plenty for temporary use has been left laying around. I don't believe such a post war program would cost much, but it would help the Ukrainian economy, defense and foreign policy as it relates to Russia. Sticks and stones will do for defense, if that's all your enemy has too, bows and arrows can help too though.