They appear to be running out of rockets and they and drones are becoming less effectual with improved air defense. Ukraine can rebuild its grid fast because spares are pouring in from all over the EU and they just cut a deal to sell the EU power now too. The lights are coming on and there are spares close by, as the Russians replace nukes with ballast on their remaining missiles and shoot then inaccurately at rail targets out of desperation.
Spares close by? Spares of what? Where are they coming from? These things do not grow on trees.
Ukrainian energy systems on brink of collapse after weeks of Russian bombing
After just six weeks of intense bombing of energy infrastructure, Russia has battered Ukraine to the brink of a humanitarian disaster this winter as millions of people potentially face life-threatening conditions without electricity, heat or running water.
As the scope of damage to Ukraine’s energy systems has come into focus in recent days, Ukrainian and Western officials have begun sounding the alarm but are also realizing they have limited recourse. Ukraine’s Soviet-era power system cannot be fixed quickly or easily. In some of the worst-hit cities, there is little officials can do other than to urge residents to flee — raising the risk of economic collapse in Ukraine and a spillover refugee crisis in neighboring European countries.
During a briefing for reporters Tuesday, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, the state-run power grid operator, called the damage to the power system “colossal.”
Russians, he said, were mainly targeting substations, nodes on the electrical grid where the current is redirected from power stations. The main components of these substations are autotransformers — “high-tech and high-cost equipment” that is difficult to replace.
Kudrytskyi said that some parts of the grid have been hit five times. Repair crews “work 24/7 to restore the damage as quickly as possible,” he said, but then a Russian missile “flies into this equipment again,” leaving “a pile of charred scrap in the place where they installed a new transformer.”
As a result, Ukraine’s energy operators need vast quantities of almost all basic materials.
A list of “urgent needs” from DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, circulating in Washington lists dozens of transformers along with circuit breakers, bushings and transformer oil.
But it is the autotransformers — the “heart” of the substations, in the words of Kudrytskyi — that are at the top of the Ukrainians’ list of needs and the key to keeping the country’s electrical grid functioning.
The Ukrainians have tried to buy up every autotransformer they can find, going as far as South Korea to purchase them, but they still need to place orders for more to be built.
While manufacturers are sympathetic to Ukraine’s problems, it can be difficult for them to set aside orders from other customers. The equipment also needs to be brought to Ukraine. Each autotransformer weighs more than 500 pounds, Kudrytskyi said, making it a large, easy target for bombing while in transit.
Transformer Shortages & Price Spikes
Electrical utilities across the country and globally are facing unprecedented multi-year supply chain issues for a wide variety of electric distribution equipment, and most significantly distribution transformers. Supply chain disruptions are tied to worldwide material demand and shortages caused by the pandemic, labor constraints, shipping issues, and even the war in Ukraine.
Transformers vary in size and are rated in kVAs (amps). The most common transformer used by the PUD is a 25kVA padmount (meaning the green cabinet kind that sit on the ground) transformer. It typically supplies power to around 4 homes. In normal years, the PUD tries to keep a stock of 60 25kVA units at all times, with a minimum on-hand quantity being 20 units. Current stock is well below that minimum.
Large orders for pad-mounted transformers, which typically took between 6–12 weeks to fulfill in 2020, now have lead times of 52–86 weeks. Transformer orders slated for arrival in mid-2021 have been postponed several times, with final arrival dates yet to be determined.
As the global supply of transformers has diminished, prices have risen accordingly. 25kVA pad-mounted transformer pricing rose nearly 400% from 2020 per-unit pricing, and 50kVa unit pricing jumped 900% since 2020. Pole-mounted transformers, which the PUD uses less of, have seen similar price increases, as well as extended lead times with no guarantees of meeting price quotes.
What does this mean for PUD customers? While the PUD has to date been able to supply transformers to customers seeking new service with minimal delays, supply chain issues could result in delays of connections in the months ahead.
Electrical utilities across the country and globally are facing unprecedented multi-year supply chain issues for a wide variety of electric distribution
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