Climate in the 21st Century

[DIY-HP-LED]

After reading the Wiki article on Li-air, it sounds like we will have steady-state fusion energy before arriving at a practical battery on this chemistry.

Has it been updated with this research from a few weeks ago? I never though much about Li-air myself until I had a look at the article.

 

[cannabineer]

Has it been updated with this research from a few weeks ago? I never though much about Li-air myself until I had a look at the article.

Probably not that specific implementation. They focus on the electrolyte. Per Wiki, there are other areas of fundamental difficulty. The instability of the discharge products caught my eye.
So my take is that even if the work done here turns out to fully realize its potential, other big challenges remain before a product with a catalog number appears.
I’m not saying bullshit. I am saying decades.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Probably not that specific implementation. They focus on the electrolyte. Per Wiki, there are other areas of fundamental difficulty. The instability of the discharge products caught my eye.
So my take is that even if the work done here turns out to fully realize its potential, other big challenges remain before a product with a catalog number appears.
I’m not saying bullshit. I am saying decades.

Only knowing a little amount about the subject I can't argue and researchers sometimes stretch the truth, looking for funding, or investors if they are going into business and making science pay personally. I guess the only gauge of it's significance will be the money pouring into it as a result of this work, since they do hire experts in the field to asses things before dropping the big bucks. Being bought out by a giant for a gazillion bucks is a sure sign they are onto something!

 

[cannabineer]

Only knowing a little amount about the subject I can't argue and researchers sometimes stretch the truth, looking for funding, or investors if they are going into business and making science pay personally. I guess the only gauge of it's significance will be the money pouring into it as a result of this work, since they do hire experts in the field to asses things before dropping the big bucks. Being bought out by a giant for a gazillion bucks is a sure sign they are onto something!

I think this is a difference in our outlooks.
I consider money pouring into it to be far in advance of my own gauge of significance, which is (the presence of) a commercial product with a catalog number and perhaps a warranty.

That’s the point at which I move it out of the speculative/vaporware/Popular Mechanics category.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I think this is a difference in our outlooks.
I consider money pouring into it to be far in advance of my own gauge of significance, which is (the presence of) a commercial product with a catalog number and perhaps a warranty.

That’s the point at which I move it out of the speculative/vaporware/Popular Mechanics category.

I like the science too, it's not all money, but smart money tends to precede application by not too long a time. Taking it from the lab to where the rubber meets the road is the issue, scaling up production. First pilot plants for large scale testing, then if it works out the big factories and that is happening for several chemistries at this point.

We are at a technological inflection point, being driven by climate change and shifting government policy. We have the EVs, they are not difficult to make, we just need better batteries and they are entirely possible. Better, cheaper batteries will mean much more than than EVs, it will mean renewable energy storage and increased grid efficiency, better robots and longer lasting devices. There is a lot of money to be made and to make money you must invest it.

 

[cannabineer]

I like the science too, it's not all money, but smart money tends to precede application by not too long a time. Taking it from the lab to where the rubber meets the road is the issue, scaling up production. First pilot plants for large scale testing, then if it works out the big factories and that is happening for several chemistries at this point.

We are at a technological inflection point, being driven by climate change and shifting government policy. We have the EVs, they are not difficult to make, we just need better batteries and they are entirely possible. Better, cheaper batteries will mean much more than than EVs, it will mean renewable energy storage and increased grid efficiency, better robots and longer lasting devices. There is a lot of money to be made and to make money you must invest it.

One parallel area that will need serious work is the charging infrastructure. Currently a big battery is 100 kWh. I expect that number to go up as salable tech advances.

Now imagine a home charging point that can top that off in an hour. That will need to draw 100 kW usable, call it 120 to account for various losses.

The average dwelling in America has a 50- or 100- amp electrical device box. 200 is de luxe. The above calls for 1000 amps! And then 100 amps for the rest of the house.

To do that with existing wiring will probably require scheduling at the substation level, with users subscribing to a computerized service that assigns them temporal charging windows on a rotating basis. This in order to prevent the trouble that would ensue if too many try to charge at the same time.

Somebody’s gonna get rich on the buildout.

It’s one of the reasons I’m bummed that Aptera appears to be on a crash trajectory. The idea of a hyperefficient EV (16-20 km/ kWh) appeals mightily to me. Honda, are you listening?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

One parallel area that will need serious work is the charging infrastructure. Currently a big battery is 100 kWh. I expect that number to go up as salable tech advances.

Now imagine a home charging point that can top that off in an hour. That will need to draw 100 kW usable, call it 120 to account for various losses.

The average dwelling in America has a 50- or 100- amp electrical device box. 200 is de luxe. The above calls for 1000 amps! And then 100 amps for the rest of the house.

To do that with existing wiring will probably require scheduling at the substation level, with users subscribing to a computerized service that assigns them temporal charging windows on a rotating basis. This in order to prevent the trouble that would ensue if too many try to charge at the same time.

Somebody’s gonna get rich on the buildout.

It’s one of the reasons I’m bummed that Aptera appears to be on a crash trajectory. The idea of a hyperefficient EV (16-20 km/ kWh) appeals mightily to me. Honda, are you listening?

Even a compact EV getting 4 km/ kWh will top up to 50 miles of range on a 12hr overnight charge from 120V. However grid and other infrastructure needs to be addressed as will the additional generating capacity. There will be a lot of electricians making a lot of money upgrading entrances and installing chargers. Some of the new fast chargers can put in 300 amps @300 volts DC! To drive a hummer or half ton with a big battery capacity you'll need to spend some time there or upgrade to a 200 amp entrance and a big charger.

From what I can gather Elon plans to introduce a dirt cheap EV this year using all the automation he can throw at it and if he does, it will force others to do the same. A cheap compact EV with sufficient range and that can be charged to 50 miles of range overnight with 120V for daily use might be the model T of EVs. It would fit the needs of millions of people who commute to work every day and the average American commute is under 50 miles a day. Buy a better charger and it can charge even more from a standard 100 amp entrance @220 volts. To sell these cars, people need to consider how they will charge them and how much it will cost, many small cars have 120V chargers built in and can use fast charging too. If ya wanna drag a lot of mass with yer ass it will cost you a lot more with an EV.

 

[cannabineer]

Even a compact EV getting 4 km/ kWh will top up to 50 miles of range on a 12hr overnight charge from 120V. However grid and other infrastructure needs to be addressed as will the additional generating capacity. There will be a lot of electricians making a lot of money upgrading entrances and installing chargers. Some of the new fast chargers can put in 300 amps @300 volts DC! To drive a hummer or half ton with a big battery capacity you'll need to spend some time there or upgrade to a 200 amp entrance and a big charger.

From what I can gather Elon plans to introduce a dirt cheap EV this year using all the automation he can throw at it and if he does, it will force others to do the same. A cheap compact EV with sufficient range and that can be charged to 50 miles of range overnight with 120V for daily use might be the model T of EVs. It would fit the needs of millions of people who commute to work every day and the average American commute is under 50 miles a day. Buy a better charger and it can charge even more from a standard 100 amp entrance @220 volts. To sell these cars, people need to consider how they will charge them and how much it will cost, many small cars have 120V chargers built in and can use fast charging too. If ya wanna drag a lot of mass with yer ass it will cost you a lot more with an EV.

4km/kWh is a lot - those are Mustang Mach-e numbers.
An Ioniq gets about 6.
The Aptera claims 16. That is a figure I can get behind. My numbers minus Aptera from here, Mister you-never-post-links.

Electric Car EPA Efficiency Mega Comparison (US): Feb 13, 2022

Let's check the EPA energy consumption of currently available electric car models (and multiple upcoming ones), as of early February 2022.

insideevs.com

It should not be hard to make a gen-4 Honda Insight (or equivalent) that gets north of 10, so 300 miles on 50 kWh, doable on a 15A/110V socket if you charge 10 hours to go 80 miles. (Top off in a day-plus, and for longer trips a quick snort from a supercharger en route) We got us some long-ass commutes between Cali (where folks work) and ‘Fornia (from where a sizable minority commute).

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

4km/kWh is a lot - those are Mustang Mach-e numbers.
An Ioniq gets about 6.
The Aptera claims 16. That is a figure I can get behind. My numbers minus Aptera from here, Mister you-never-post-links.

Electric Car EPA Efficiency Mega Comparison (US): Feb 13, 2022

Let's check the EPA energy consumption of currently available electric car models (and multiple upcoming ones), as of early February 2022.

insideevs.com

It should not be hard to make a gen-4 Honda Insight (or equivalent) that gets north of 10, so 300 miles on 50 kWh, doable on a 15A/110V socket if you charge 10 hours to go 80 miles. (Top off in a day-plus, and for longer trips a quick snort from a supercharger en route) We got us some long-ass commutes between Cali (where folks work) and ‘Fornia (from where a sizable minority commute).

Well, to sell in the low end of the market, it should be able to be charged at home with a built in 120V charger that should be able to put a bit more than a kilowatt an hour into the battery to top it off, that should give most folks a 10 or 12 kWh top up. Range would be determined by, electrical efficiency, mass, driving style and aerodynamics. So miles per kWh is kinda like miles per gallon, if you will.

 

[cannabineer]

Well, to sell in the low end of the market, it should be able to be charged at home with a built in 120V charger that should be able to put a bit more than a kilowatt an hour into the battery to top it off, that should give most folks a 10 or 12 kWh top up. Range would be determined by, electrical efficiency, mass, driving style and aerodynamics. So miles per kWh is kinda like miles per gallon, if you will.

Yup, and I’d like to see the extreme-efficiency two-seater market developed. With solar roof and hood (and my desert lifestyle) that’s 90% of my needs met without grid power!

that, and I will never ever buy a Muskmobile. Not only do I hate the man’s guts, but that single big touchscreen is moo plop. Give me primary readouts on round analog dials, ideally with HUD onto the windshield.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

4km/kWh is a lot - those are Mustang Mach-e numbers.
An Ioniq gets about 6.
The Aptera claims 16. That is a figure I can get behind. My numbers minus Aptera from here, Mister you-never-post-links.

Electric Car EPA Efficiency Mega Comparison (US): Feb 13, 2022

Let's check the EPA energy consumption of currently available electric car models (and multiple upcoming ones), as of early February 2022.

insideevs.com

It should not be hard to make a gen-4 Honda Insight (or equivalent) that gets north of 10, so 300 miles on 50 kWh, doable on a 15A/110V socket if you charge 10 hours to go 80 miles. (Top off in a day-plus, and for longer trips a quick snort from a supercharger en route) We got us some long-ass commutes between Cali (where folks work) and ‘Fornia (from where a sizable minority commute).

All the better, I was using a conservative general estimate of 4mi/kWh, 10km/kWh ups the top up range from 120V considerably. 6.5km/kWh is not an unreasonable estimate though, just up the size of car that 120v charging will support.

 

[Sativied]

Not being able to charge EVs fast enough to drive the distance you’d need in most circumstances is a limitation/problem of the power supply, not the EV, not the battery. It’s like disliking 8k streaming cause you don’t have fiber to the door yet. Don’t know bout the US but the cost of upgrading a power supply (to accommodate for solar, electric stove and modern EV charging option) is just a fraction of the cost of the EV itself and eventually pays for itself and beats having a huge gas container in the garden.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Not being able to charge EVs fast enough to drive the distance you’d need in most circumstances is a limitation/problem of the power supply, not the EV, not the battery. It’s like disliking 8k streaming cause you don’t have fiber to the door yet. Don’t know bout the US but the cost of upgrading a power supply (to accommodate for solar, electric stove and modern EV charging option) is just a fraction of the cost of the EV itself and eventually pays for itself and beats having a huge gas container in the garden.

Slower home charging will suit the top up needs of most people and most will be able to be fast charged. With 240V power common in the EU, charging from home should not be an issue and most cars are smaller in Europe. Also range should not be as big an issue there as in NA

 

[cannabineer]

Slower home charging will suit the top up needs of most people and most will be able to be fast charged. With 240V power common in the EU, charging from home should not be an issue and most cars are smaller in Europe. Also range should not be as big an issue there as in NA

I half-remember @Sativied saying they’re fairly long

 

[Sativied]

Yeah it's a misconception to assume smaller countries means less commute or smaller range requirements. Averages don't differ much but in countries like NL it's actually more. It's not uncommon to work in a different city (often in the west or south) or drive to the "other side of the country" or drive to south France or Denmark. In addition to the distance, it's busy traffic most of the road. Almost 1 out of 5 cars here is a leased company car, another 5th are company cars bought and paid for. Employers hand them out like they're mobile phones (adds 20% of value to yearly income for tax so it's not actually free). Since they are replaced every 2-3 year, they also form a big chunk of the used car market. Those who don't get a company car almost always still get a compensation per km. Basically we drive so much we get paid for it, or at least compensated, either by an actual car, or additional salary. So when you need to drive 100-200miles a day for work, you do want a fast charging outlet at home. 1 x 16 A (3,6 kW) and 3 x 16 A (11 kW) are common, but some have 16-22kW. The main reason people want to have decent charging option at home is because it's (with exception for a few weeks last year) a cheaper option and they can use their solar power. Whether it takes hours or all night isn't a major consideration.

That said, while range and daily use is still an issue, a small densely populated country does mean high concentration of charging options. . Like every major parking spot, whether it's at a mall, supermarket, or in a multistore parking garage or office complex. That's in addition to many more spread out parking spots where the meter is also the charger (I.e. you pay for parking and charging). Specifically, we got 107K public charging 'poles' and 3200 fast chargers (like gas stations along highway). Does not include the ones at restaurants and employers and others on private ground. There are only a little over 300K EVs in NL. 40-50 public parking+charging spots in a mile radius around my place, so yeah, I can't relate to charge phobia.

Last time I heard complaints about range was 4-5 years ago, taxi drivers were not happy with the actual range (of iirc a prius) being so much less than the advertised range (without airco on, in good weather conditions, radio off, etc).

 

[Sativied]

As for cars being smaller, while that was definitely true, and will remain true with EVs, it’s not a major factor when choosing to upgrade the power system for ev charging. Most EVs I see are huge, about a 5th of those 300k EVs are Teslas. Big VWs, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and Audis make up a third. Most of them belong in that company car group I mentioned, the 208 and other small EVs are by many here wife’s / grocery cars here too. And that’s just NL, cars in Scandinavia and Germany tend to be bigger models.

 

[cannabineer]

As for cars being smaller, while that was definitely true, and will remain true with EVs, it’s not a major factor when choosing to upgrade the power system for ev charging. Most EVs I see are huge, about a 5th of those 300k EVs are Teslas. Big VWs, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and Audis make up a third. Most of them belong in that company car group I mentioned, the 208 and other small EVs are by many here wife’s / grocery cars here too. And that’s just NL, cars in Scandinavia and Germany tend to be bigger models.

Company cars are more of a European/British thing. I remember Top Gear guys saying what salaried men drove was a pretty fine-grained way to figure their career/social status. Here guys who got up the ladder received stock options and bought their own S-class or Porsche turbo.
Or a Jag, if they were masochists.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

As for cars being smaller, while that was definitely true, and will remain true with EVs, it’s not a major factor when choosing to upgrade the power system for ev charging. Most EVs I see are huge, about a 5th of those 300k EVs are Teslas. Big VWs, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and Audis make up a third. Most of them belong in that company car group I mentioned, the 208 and other small EVs are by many here wife’s / grocery cars here too. And that’s just NL, cars in Scandinavia and Germany tend to be bigger models.

Current EV offerings tend to be high end, but cheaper options are coming for different kinds of buyers in lower income brackets. Bigger cars with lot's of options cost more to buy and operate, smaller cars can be charged from home easier and cheaper. As now there will be a range of price options, but prices in general depend on battery prices and availability and that should drop with increasing production and increasing chemical options.

 

[Budley Doright]

when i lived in Mn, the apartments that had those outlets in the parking lot were either metered to the apartments, or they added them into the rent, usually those places were $50 to $100 a month more than those without them, for the same size apartment...you have to run a block heater for a long time to use 50 bucks worth of juice

Could’ve used one Saturday as both vehicles were a no go, -32C at my door . Looked online and ordered one for $65 for truck.

 

[Budley Doright]

Company cars are more of a European/British thing. I remember Top Gear guys saying what salaried men drove was a pretty fine-grained way to figure their career/social status. Here guys who got up the ladder received stock options and bought their own S-class or Porsche turbo.
Or a Jag, if they were masochists.

I don’t miss the truck much but I sure miss the card .