Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 28.0%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 41 26.1%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 72 45.9%

  • Total voters
    157

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I'm only quoting industry sources for prices and projections. We need tariffs to compete and get a domestic industry off the ground, but they are high for economic reasons, not humanitarian ones, that is just the rationale. Wholesale prices need to come down before retail prices do, if you want immediate gratification, you'll need to wait a spell. Industries and financial institutions have to project ahead a little bit and they have been reading the same stuff I've been posting about prices and projections. The video I posted earlier by Tony Seba is interesting because of his track record and he is one of the people those big government and industry types listen to. There are bigger ideas going on here than the daily retail price of PV solar panels or batteries. We need tariffs for now, but they only apply in North America, the rest of the planet are buying Chinese solar panels because they are cheap.
OK but you’re glossing over the important part.

Where are the 100-kWH sub-$10k (US retail, delivered) fixed batteries?
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
OK but you’re glossing over the important part.

Where are the 100-kWH sub-$10k (US retail, delivered) fixed batteries?
I'm looking at trends and industry data, not retail prices and they should drop. We have not seen the impact of all those battery factories going up yet using various chemistries. I also like the idea of building for the trough and not the peak, panels are much cheaper than batteries so storage can be kept to a minimum even in Canada. In America and Canada there will be tariffs to foster local industry, but I suspect all production will shift to Mexico, American and Chinese, EVs, batteries and solar panels. Mexico could be China's back door into the North American market. If there wasn't money in these new green technologies, they would not be so concerned. There is a confluence of technologies that are disrupting the value chain for power and light transportation. When were you or a small business able to compete with a utility for power? An oil company for the price of gas? In a few years or even now you can, that is empowering, decentralizing and spreads the benefits to more than the 1%.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I'm looking at trends and industry data, not retail prices and they should drop. We have not seen the impact of all those battery factories going up yet using various chemistries. I also like the idea of building for the trough and not the peak, panels are much cheaper than batteries so storage can be kept to a minimum even in Canada. In America and Canada there will be tariffs to foster local industry, but I suspect all production will shift to Mexico, American and Chinese, EVs, batteries and solar panels. Mexico could be China's back door into the North American market. If there wasn't money in these new green technologies, they would not be so concerned. There is a confluence of technologies that are disrupting the value chain for power and light transportation. When were you or a small business able to compete with a utility for power? An oil company for the price of gas? In a few years or even now you can, that is empowering, decentralizing and spreads the benefits to more than the 1%.
When you say <$100/kWh, the only industry data trend of real interest is retail price to the consumer. Please do not omit those from the economics of these evolving markets.

I don’t care about the price of petroleum. I care about the price at the local pump. This currently has a multiplier of about 250% here.

I’m trying to provide constructive input on what matters. Production costs or costs to national-scale wholesalers are an annoying distraction, unless a proven conversion factor to end-user price is included.

If a 100kWh ev battery costs $2600 at the port railhead (minimum order 2500 units) … but costs $14k plus installation at the dealer or $9k used (no warranty; shipping extra) on the Bay — who cares about the wholesale price? Do you?
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
When you say <$100/kWh, the only industry data trend of real interest is retail price to the consumer. Please do not omit those from the economics of these evolving markets.

I don’t care about the price of petroleum. I care about the price at the local pump. This currently has a multiplier of about 250% here.

I’m trying to provide constructive input on what matters. Production costs or costs to national-scale wholesalers are an annoying distraction, unless a proven conversion factor to end-user price is included.

If a 100kWh ev battery costs $2600 at the port railhead (minimum order 2500 units) … but costs $14k plus installation at the dealer or $9k used (no warranty; shipping extra) on the Bay — who cares about the wholesale price? Do you?
I agree, retail is where the rubber meets the road for consumers, businesses like EV makers and utilities get a much better deal. I and many others see a trend here fueled by technological change and economics. Cost curves are a well-known phenomenon, that solar and batteries are on, they are also on the S curves for adoption, it's never linear. We are just starting along this path and there will be hiccups, problems and tariffs along the way, but the trend is clear, even the timelines are coming into focus.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I think methane is going to be the bigger issue overall. The rate the permafrost is melting is quickly going to flood the atmosphere with methane that we will have no control over at all. All the methane releases due to the oil industry could maybe be capped but not likely but there's nothing to be done with millions of square miles of rotting vegetation. We are already at the tipping point so it won't take much more to push us over.

About the only thing that could halt the warming now is a super volcano eruption causing a mini ice age. That won't be any fun either and even if it's one in a remote location millions will likely die as food production is drastically curtailed.

I hate to be pessimistic about things but I did study environmental science and not seeing much to be positive about. I fear for the world my grandchildren are inheriting. :(

:peace:
 

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member
I've long know of the possibility of that happening as ocean currents warm and change their their patterns of circulation. There are similar deposits in many places on the planet. Large releases of methane gas in the Bermuda triangle have been put forward as a possible cause for the disappearance of ships and aircraft in the area.

Mother Earth has many booby traps set for us unwary humans that we are only beginning to trip over and become aware of.

:peace:
 

injinji

Well-Known Member
I avoid soy products of all kinds. Can cause hormone disruptions and there's a compound in them that has a negative effect on a man's prostate and I already have issues there. Gave up cashews for the same kind of thing and I love cashews.

Probably a few billion people eat soy every day and don't seem to suffer any harm but I'm not taking no chances.

One thing I have noticed since getting lots of hemp seed and protein in my diet is a big reduction in arthritis pain that took daily doses of CBD oil I make and regular RSO. I haven't had any CBD for at least a couple months and just a couple hits of pot in my pipe in the evenings. Not enough to be therapeutic in any way but good to relax and give me a little more appetite. Also taking salmon oil caps during that period for the omega 3 which hemp has lots of along with the 6 and 9. That's all supposed to be good to reduce inflammation and seems to work for me. Cholesterol is down below the high normal level which I was a couple points above for years. No way I was taking meds for that so great to see it down on it's own. Lots of oat bran in my smoothies which is supposed to help reduce that too.

Can put hemp hearts in almost anything. Had spaghetti tonight with my big scoop of hearts in it and don't even notice it's in there. Mild nutty flavour that goes with almost anything so easy to get my half cup with 28g of protein every day. Hemp hearts at the grocery here are $12 for half a pound and they don't sell the protein powder. I got 16lbs of each in bulk bags, free shipping from southern Alberta, $9lb for the seed and $10lb for the protein powder. Keep in the freezer for a couple years at least but the hearts should last a year before I need more. I use less of the powder so probably 2 years on that. Rocky Mountain Grain Products in Lethbridge, AB.

The best thing I've done for my health both physical and mental is to give up booze. Two and a half years in and feeling better than I have in decades. My head feels like it's getting clearer all the time and I don't miss those hangovers one little bit. Go on a 3 day binge once a month and suffer for 4 weeks with depression and stinking thinking.

Now the smoking has to go. Started today with reaching for my e-cig instead of rolling a smoke and already down to half the smokes. Need what lung power I have left for a few hits in my pipe here and there. :)

:peace:
The main drawback to soybeans for me is that lots of forest in the 3rd world is being cleared to grow them. That is a buzz kill, but compared to meat production, I figure it does less harm.

Glad you gave up drink. I had to stop over 25 years ago due to a bum kidney. (use magic mushrooms in moderation everybody) At the same time I had to stop drinking soda too. I have saved a buck or two since then.
 

sunni

Administrator
Staff member
the soy thing is a myth. has been debunked numerous times

The main drawback to soybeans for me is that lots of forest in the 3rd world is being cleared to grow them.
same could be said for the palm oil, (insert larger farmed item here)

the problem is not the product imho but the lack of sustainability caused by mega corporations and governments lack of enforcing or having rules set upon things

people can go back and forth over arguing on plant based vs non plant based diets, the reality is both have massive drawbacks the average consumer cannot change, it will need to be the governments and corporations to do "right"

which we all know they wont
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Technology got us into this shit and hopefully it will get us out of it, we have little choice as a global civilization. This not only includes energy and light transport transition fueled now by economic factors, but sustainable agricultural practices too. It means more than using electric tractors and technology to monitor crops, it means sustainable practices too and enriching the land organically. If farmers don't need to pay for fuel, it becomes more economical to do this kind of farming and use less expensive chemical fertilizers. We need to reduce our impact on the environment and globally many people have moved off the land into the cities and some rural areas are rewilding.

Land for solar need not be lost to agriculture and plants help to cool panels. If the panels are mounted high enough sheep and cattle can keep vegetation from growing too much. There are also many crops that benefit from partial shade. This is probably how green agriculture will begin, for economic reasons. Many farmers are aware of destructive agricultural practices and want to preserve their investments. However, corporations are buying up agricultural land, presumably to be farmed by robots and automation with few workers, all electrically powered.

Farmers can benefit from solar too and an electric tractor is a general-purpose machine that many farmers can use along with a half-ton. A large modern barn has a lot of solar panel surface area, fuel is a major cost, and most farmers have the room for solar. Many dairy and egg operations don't farm fields either, but everybody has a tractor and implements can be hooked up to it just like a diesel one.

More profitable than pot!


Solar Panels Meet Saffron In New Agrivoltaic Project


"Saffron comes from the stigmas of the blooming crocus. In addition to medicinal benefits and other non-culinary uses, saffron really is the most expensive spice in the world at $5,000 per pound. In comparison, vanilla clocks in a distant second at $600 per pound".
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
" A corporation doesn't have a soul to save or an ass to kick".

Worth a watch and it explains the economic discontent in rural America, a deep dive into what went wrong with our global food system and corporate agricultural practices. We need reform in more than just agriculture.


Reinventing farming and food post-globalisation | FT Film

The FT's global business columnist Rana Foroohar believes globalisation, as we've known it for the past 40 years, has failed. In the first of three films based on her new book, 'Homecoming: the path to prosperity in a post-global world', she takes a trip across the US to see how neoliberal economic thinking has broken our food supply chains - and what can be done about it.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Not climate but environment.

I wonder if Somarelli is being an alarmist. I don’t know either way.

We are gonna have to do something about plastic and it's in the sea too, every time you wash a synthetic garment lots of microfibers are released into the water.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
We are gonna have to do something about plastic and it's in the sea too, every time you wash a synthetic garment lots of microfibers are released into the water.
I have no idea how big their effect is. It’s important to know so that we know where to allocate limited funds.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Decarbonising AMMONIA production. Could a revolutionary new process be the key?

Ammonia is produced in large volumes each year and is in constant use in industries like agriculture, petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals. But it also has great potential as a fuel source, if only a way could be found to produce it without the huge carbon dioxide emissions it currently creates. Now a team at Monash University say they've found an economically viable way to do just that.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
An entertaining look at a process to produce nitrogen fertilizer on a small-scale using renewables, there have been some breakthroughs. Nitrogen fertilizer production contributes about 2% to global emissions, as much as the global airline industry. This is research, but it might be developed into a product farmers can use to produce their own nitrogen fertilizer. Most of the carbon produced is by reforming methane and produces a lot of CO2. A bit more technical description than the one above.


The End of Haber Bosch

Correction: 7:20 The electrons in this equation should have a "-" indicating negative charge.

Billions of people rely on a single, hundred-year-old chemical reaction every day: nitrogen gas + hydrogen gas → ammonia. This simple, short reaction is a hidden monster: it consumes 1% of the world’s TOTAL energy supply and releases 2% of the world’s TOTAL carbon dioxide emissions. Join George on a quest to discover whether the Haber-Bosch reaction’s time is finally up.
 
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